What is the ceiling for Washington Wizards forward Deni Avdija?

Key Highlights:

• Deni Avdija is playing the best basketball of his career this season
• He’s made massive improvements to his 3-point shooting, drive game, and ability to generate free throws
• Avdija has the outline of a future superstar role player

Over his last four games, fourth-year forward Deni Avdija is averaging 28.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG, and 3.8 APG on 72.7% true shooting. Avdija enters the All-Star break playing the best basketball of his career, which is pretty refreshing considering how long people have been waiting for Avdija to take that leap forward. But this year, Avdija has done just that.

Now, he’s starting to become the player people envisioned him as when the Washington Wizards selected him ninth overall in the 2020 NBA Draft. This begs the question: how much further can Avdija take this?

Why People Love Avdija

As a general rule, those who really follow basketball have an affinity toward tantalizing defensive prospects with a poor jumper. As a 6’9 forward who hasn’t surpassed the 32% mark from beyond the arc in his first three NBA seasons, Avdija certainly fits that characterization.

Avdija isn’t an elite guard defender like his draft class peer, Jaden McDaniels. And he doesn’t create turnovers at the same rate as McDaniels, either. But what Avdija lacks in lateral quickness and defensive playmaking, he makes up for with his size and physicality. He can guard bigger players, provide secondary paint protection, and help crash the defensive glass (90th percentile among forwards, per Cleaning the Glass). In keeping with the 2020 Draft comparisons, Avdija’s defensive style is similar to that of Patrick Williams.

Avdija isn’t an All-Defensive caliber player. But he is clearly a positive performer on that end of the floor. Despite the Wizards being horrible on the defensive side of the ball (27th in defensive rating), Avdija is still in the 75th percentile (per Dunks & Threes) in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (DEF EPM). Washington’s defense is also 5.8 points stingier per 100 possessions (90th percentile) when Avdija is on the floor compared to when he’s on the bench.

What really makes Avdija such a fascinating prospect is his vision and court mapping. During the pre-draft process, Avdija’s combination of passing and size garnered comparisons to Hedo Turkoglu and even Luka Doncic. This season, Avdija’s Passer Rating (one of the best publicly available estimates of a player’s passing prowess) ranks in the 81st percentile league-wide.

Avdija is comfortable making passes out of the pick-and-roll (first and second clip in the montage below), while attacking off the catch (third clip), playing in the post (fourth), and as he’s operating in transition (fifth and sixth clip).

The theory with Avdija is that if you can add a jumper to his defense and passing, you get an elite complimentary piece.

What He’s Done This Year

Guess what? Avdija got the jumper everyone was hoping he would develop!

After never eclipsing the 32% mark in years one through three, Avdija is now hitting 40.5% of his 2.8 3-point attempts per game. Even more promising, Avdija is hitting 46% of his wide-open triples (per NBA.com). Before that, his career-high was 38.8% in 2021-22.

(Sidebar: For future reference, wide-open 3-point shooting is a great way to measure a player’s shooting ability independent of team context).

There are some reasons to pump the brakes on these numbers. First off, Avidja’s 3-point percentage may just be the product of a small sample size. He’s only taken 153 threes on the season. So, there’s a good chance that his 40.5% mark regresses to the mean with more attempts.

Second, his free throw percentage (another good context-independent way to measure a player’s shooting) has hardly changed from his past seasons. In fact, his current free throw percentage (74%) is almost identical to the one he had last season (73.9%).

With those pieces in mind, Avdija’s form does look quick and replicable (here’s a great example of his jumper in action). So, there is a chance that this isn’t a fluke and that Avdija continues to be an above-average outside shooter moving forward.

But do you know what is a pretty easily sustainable part of Avdija’s growth this year? His rim finishing. After being a 61.9% finisher around the rim last year (47th percentile), Avdija is now converting on 67% of his interior looks (74th percentile). He’s also taking more shots around the rim now too – going from 4.7 rim attempts per 75 (57th percentile) to 6.2 per 75 (78th percentile).

Most of Avdija’s attempts around the rim come from drives. He’s always been a pretty good finisher off drives, but he’s lacked the killer instinct to constantly try and attack the paint. A big reason for this lack of confidence is his below-average handle and first step.

The beautiful thing about basketball, though, is that you can overcome a lot of your talent deficiencies by just being aggressive. And it seems like someone must have bestowed that wisdom on to Avdija, as he’s driving more than ever (71st percentile in drives per 36 minutes, per Thinking Basketball) while also maintaining his efficiency (70th percentile in true shooting on drives).

56 drives, 29 FTAs for Deni Avdija over his last four games.

Closeout attacks, PnR drives (BH & roller), out of iso. Even w/o an elite handle or burst, I love the way he's attacking gaps w intent.

This is the aggression folks (me) have wanted him to tap into more consistently. pic.twitter.com/20ONTAyIYt

— Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) February 16, 2024

As Nekias Duncan (great Twitter follow, by the way) alluded to, Avdija’s added aggression has increased his chances at the charity stripe (from the 56th percentile in free throws per 75 last year to the 76th percentile). Between his growth as a shooter, driver, and free throw grifter, Avdija is experiencing his most efficient scoring season by far (77th percentile in true shooting).

What Is His Ceiling?

This season has shown that Avdija isn’t just another fun, young player. He’s a legitimate NBA guy who will be a part of the league for a long time. But how much more than that can he be?

With his passing and improved driving, some may wonder if Avdija can evolve into a primary creator on offense. However, while Avdija is a good passer, he’s not an elite one. Plus, he’s not a good enough pull-up shooter (5th percentile on midrange jumpers) to bend defenses enough to be a volume playmaker. Take this clip, for example:

Deandre Ayton plays the Avdija pick-and-roll in a deep drop. This lets the rest of the defenders stay home on their assignment and keeps the action contained to a 2-on-2 dance. On offense, the protocol for these situations is to penalize the defense with a pull-up jumper. Unfortunately, Avdija can’t do that. So, he tries attacking Ayton at the rim. That doesn’t go as planned, there is no open man to kick it to since no defenders helped, and it leads to a turnover.

Unless his pull-up shooting somehow rapidly improves, Avdija will likely never graduate to the All-Star status.

Still, Avdija’s passing, size, improved shooting (if it holds), and drive game give him a pretty nice skillset for flanking high-level offensive players. Add those ingredients together with his already stout defense, and you have the recipe for one of the best role players in basketball.

In a lot ways, Avdija reminds me of a better-passing, less-athletic version of Aaron Gordon – a player who, in the right system, blossomed into an integral part of a championship team. And that’s exactly what I think Avdija’s ceiling is – a high-level starter on a team that goes the distance.