How Real Is Tyrese Maxey’s Early Season Breakout?

Key Highlights:

• Maxey’s .411 free-throw rate blows past his previous career-high of .247
• The Sixers are 8.6 points better per 100 possessions when he’s on the court
• New head coach Nick Nurse is putting him in plenty of good spots to succeed

Over the past few years, Tyrese Maxey has rightfully earned his reputation as a Toronto Raptors killer. In his first playoff series as a starter two seasons ago, he averaged 21.3 points on 63.5 percent true shooting against them. Since 2021-22, he’s averaged 25.1 points on 73.7 percent true shooting across eight regular seasons matchups, spearheaded by a career-high 44 points in October 2022 and most recently bookended by a 34-point explosion this past Saturday. The Raptors organization must endure nightmares about him lacing up his kicks to face them.

To open 2023-24, though, Maxey has terrorized each of his opponents, not solely Toronto. Through three games, he’s averaging 30.3 points (68.8 percent true shooting), 6.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists.

Amid James Harden’s absence and subsequent departure, Maxey has assumed point guard duties and thus far performed like the star the Philadelphia 76ers hoped he’d emerge as this season. He and Joel Embiid have the offense humming, with the Sixers fifth in offensive rating (119.5) during their impressive 2-1 start.

What’s Changed For Maxey This Year?

There are no questions about Embiid’s sustainability. The reigning MVP and a three-time MVP finalist, he is arguably the game’s most dominant regular season player of the past few seasons. He looks as great as he ever has to begin a year, averaging 31.0 points (61.6 percent true shooting), 10.3 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 3.0 blocks.

There are, however, rightful questions about Maxey’s sustainability. He’s enjoyed brief stretches of flamethrower shooting and brilliant basketballing before. But never to kickstart a season and never as he navigates primary ball-handling responsibilities for a team with grand aspirations shepherded by an MVP-level talent.

Certain aspects are simply unsustainable, even if they won’t necessarily impede Maxey from continuing to play like a star. He will not shoot 56 percent beyond the arc all season, particularly because he’s connected on 91 percent (10-of-11) of his catch-and-shoot long balls. He will presumably shoot better than 50 percent (4 of 8) at the rim and 28.6 percent (4 of 14) on pull-up threes to help counteract some of his spot-up regression. His 45.2 percent clip on two-pointers is 5.9 points lower than his career number of 51.1 percent.

What may be sustainable is his .411 free-throw rate, a massive spike from the .226 mark of his first three years. Already, he’s logged two games with at least 10 free throw attempts, a feat he accomplished just three times in his first 231 career outings (playoffs included). For a couple years now, he’s tried to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Harden, and ride the rip-through on drives into fouls, albeit rarely to consistent success. This season, he is relishing the consistent success he’s long coveted.

Whenever a defender reaches in during his drives, he immediately ends the dribble, spotlights and embellishes the infraction, and tosses the ball toward the rim. That — plus leveraging his speed and change of pace against smaller or like-sized defenders in space — has produced a couple prolific nights at the charity stripe.

How Has New Head Coach Nick Nurse Helped Maxey?

Some of this emergence can be attributed to head coach Nick Nurse scheming so much real estate downhill for his point guard. Most often, Philadelphia is clearing the wings and flattening out along the baseline to prevent early stunts from discouraging Maxey’s forays inside. By the time a help-side defender is within reach, Maxey is a legitimate threat to score and officials deem his intentions genuine rather than nefarious foul-baiting.

Another component could be the teams he’s faced. Following the losses of Jrue Holiday and Jevon Carter, the Milwaukee Bucks’ point-of-attack defense is depleted and no longer an asset of the roster. Couple that with an adjustment to a new scheme and coaching staff in the first game of the year, and Maxey feasted. The Portland Trail Blazers are an inexperienced, overmatched group, especially at guard, and Maxey took advantage.

None of this is to say he cannot keep pace. But there are warning signs if the early free-throw rate proves a blip, yet Nurse’s tweaks and arrival must be accounted for because they are absolutely beneficial.

The dividends of Nurse’s playbook aren’t solely manifesting in Maxey’s free-throw numbers. He’s done a tremendous job of feeding his 6-foot-2 dynamo the ball on the move with a head of steam and space to rock out, which I always thought former head coach Doc Rivers should’ve done more often. Maxey is blazing fast and a tremendously talented scorer. Dial up actions that give him an edge before the ball touches his hands and see what happens. Nurse is, and the results are bountiful.

Maxey is wielding changes in tempo as shrewdly as ever right now, too. The 0-60 acceleration is always available and defenders know that. Maxey knows they know. Both parties similarly recognize he’s one of the NBA’s best shooters. That leaves opponents in a bind and Maxey in advantageous positions to strike. Schematic improvements and internal development are coalescing to let him reach his preferred spots with ease.

When Maxey and Embiid tango in ball-screens, the wings have typically remained empty. Rivers implemented this last year fairly frequently to complement Embiid and Harden, and plenty of other teams apply it as well. Nurse has preserved it to amplify the Sixers’ new dynamic duo. Unlike Harden, Maxey can struggle to adapt out of a pocket pass if nail help is lurking. His lack of size makes it difficult to skip feeds over multiple bodies and punish a defense into rotation.

So, Nurse is easing things for the young guard. The pocket pass is consistently open. Between the timeliness of Maxey’s deliveries and Embiid’s scoring excellence, they’re crushing drop coverage.

In time, opponents will adjust. They’ll seek to take away the pocket pass regardless of whether there’s anyone on the wing. The Raptors had Scottie Barnes roaming around to dissuade that pass late in Saturday’s game. Better teams will do the same in crucial moments. Maxey, Embiid and the Sixers will have to respond — and they seem well-suited for it.

Although their two-man game may not reach the ethereal peaks of Harden and Embiid, they’ve swiftly proven to be a more diverse, multifaceted connection. Whereas almost everything Harden and Embiid achieved stemmed from pick-and-rolls, Maxey’s athleticism, movement shooting and quick-hitting nature enable him to play off of his superstar big man in ways Harden rarely did.

Harden’s playmaking wizardry set the table for Embiid, yet his methodical nature and aversion to spot-up threes yielded some diminishing returns in their tandem — even if they were quite compatible. Offensively, it always felt like Embiid gained more in specific areas than Harden did beyond how anyone would find life much easier alongside a superstar of Embiid’s magnitude.

Maxey hasn’t shown to amplify Embiid to the caliber Harden did (a lofty task). But he seems better equipped to be amplified by Embiid’s greatness than Harden was, which is a continuation of how well he thrived next to Harden.

The chemistry, improvisation and movement between Maxey and Embiid has been incredibly fluid. They’re constantly searching for and puncturing soft spots in the defense, and are comfortable pivoting to an alternative if Plan A is foiled. Philadelphia is running far more dribble handoffs this year than it did under Rivers, and the Maxey-Embiid DHO is flourishing.

According to Synergy, 17.4 percent of Maxey’s possessions have been handoffs this season and he’s generating 2.08 points per possession (91st percentile) on them. Prior to 2023-24, his dribble handoff frequency never eclipsed 5.6 percent. His driving potential, touch and shooting chops always punish teams; his growing rapport with Embiid is simply elevating it all to new heights. Prioritize the two-time scoring champ and his silky shooting, track star of a sidekick will capitalize.

Once some of Maxey’s outside shooting cools down, much of what he’s doing should persist. The process, both in his approach and the surrounding factors (teammates, scheme), are highly encouraging. He’s routinely operating in space and getting to his optimal spots. After hints the past couple years, his partnership with Embiid is blossoming. His cadence and decision-making as a creator are stellar.

He is an improved player in an improved environment. None of that is changing, which gives this rise to stardom some critical staying power.