NBA
This statistic suggest Luka Doncic may be underrated on defense
Mat Issa is based in Sterling Heights, Michigan. Yes, he spells his name with one "t." He's obsessed with NBA history, so much so that he's dedicated nearly two years of research to his two mini-series', "Blazing the Trail" and "The Quest for the Best." Right now, Mat goes to law school and writes about the NBA for The Analyst, Forbes, and of course, Basketball Insiders. His work has also been featured in ESPN, SB Nation, FanSided, Basketball News, ONE37pm, and Raptors Republic. Also, he's a lifelong Spartans fan. Go Green!
All posts by Mat IssaUpdated13 Feb 2024
Throughout his career, Dallas Mavericks’ superstar Luka Doncic has been praised as an offensive prodigy. Unfortunately, also during that stretch, he’s been downgraded and (sometimes) harshly criticized for his effort on the other side of the ball.
However, this season, Doncic has put up arguably his best season to date, and there are some convincing numbers out there to prove it.
A Sneaky Good Isolation Defender
As of February 12th, Doncic is tenth in the entire NBA in points per possession when defending in isolation (minimum 50 isolation possessions defended). On the season, Doncic is giving up just 0.71 points per isolation possession defended. That translates to an Offensive Rating of 71, which would be by far and away the worst offensive season in NBA history.
Who's that I see at 10🧐 pic.twitter.com/O5hI27Yo1q
— jac (@jacjacc__) February 12, 2024
Hold Your Horses
Now, now. We need to pump the brakes on the Doncic love. There are two pieces of context to add to this information. First, teams generally treat great isolation defenders the same way they treat great cornerbacks in football. They don’t want to give them too many chances to show off their greatness. So, they avoid challenging them altogether. The reason Doncic has so many isolation possessions defended is that teams don’t view him as an elite isolation defender.
Second, in today’s game of volume 3-point shooting and crazy ball movement, isolation offense isn’t the premier playtype for most teams. Doncic may be good at defending in isolation. But there are so many other actions players have to defend over the course of a given game that being good at defending this sequence alone doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s a good defender overall.
This season, Doncic’s Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (DEF EPM) is in the 53rd percentile league wide (per Dunks & Threes). That’s a pretty solid mark, especially given his reputation. However, Doncic’s DEF EPM has been at this level (or higher) in every season since 2020-21. So, it looks like he was never as bad of a defender as his naysayers made him out to be.
