NBA
The X-Factors: Indiana
Thereโs a lot going on right now. So much so that itโs overshadowed a positive string of news – the NBA is (hopefully) coming back. We donโt know when that is, and we donโt know how theyโre going to approach the rest of the 2019-20 season, but at least we know that pro basketball is coming back.
If youโve been keeping in touch with Basketball Insiders over the past week, weโve been looking over X-Factors that can shape the chances of potential playoff teams. X-Factors like injuries, how teams figure out their rotation, getting past their internal issues, and so on and so forth. Weโve already gone over New Orleans, Portland, Brooklyn and Memphis. Today, weโre going over the Indiana Pacers.
Over the past three years, the Pacers have been unanimously crowned as one of the leagueโs more entertaining underdogs. Since they started their new era of basketball post-Paul George, their identity has centered around their scrappiness and effort. Itโs whatโs led to them having two consecutive 48-win seasons and being on pace to win 49 this season. If thatโs not enough, theyโve done this while having their new face of the franchise Victor Oladipo fully healthy for only one season during that time.
Thereโs only one problem. In spite of them wildly exceeding expectations, it hasnโt led to much playoff success. In their defense, some of that came from factors that were out of their control, like having to face LeBron in the first round one year and losing Oladipo mid-season the next. This upcoming postseason is their chance to prove that there is more to them than being the little train that could.
For Indiana to take that next step, their chances start and end with how much of Victor Oladipo that weโll get to see from Victor Oladipo.
First, letโs give props to the Pacers for being able to manage without โDipo for the past year or so. Teams more often than not crash and burn after they lose their best player. Indiana can take pride knowing that they werenโt one of them. Theyโve proven that theyโre a good team without him – which definitely wasnโt the case his first year when he exploded. At this point though, good isnโt enough for them, which is why they still need him at full strength to achieve their full potential.
Alas, integrating an all-NBA caliber player following a devastating injury to a team that was playing fine without him is much easier said than done — the 2018-19 Boston Celtics can attest to that. It can really boggle down to two reasons why.
1. A star coming off a serious injury mid-season needs time to shake off the rust
2. Working him into a rotation that was doing fine without him is hard to maneuver
When Oladipo came back, neither he nor the Pacers could avoid those issues. Indiana went 7-6 and seemed to go hot and cold. After winning an overtime thriller against Chicago, they went on a five-game losing streak. They followed that with a six-game winning streak before losing to Boston in a close battle just as the NBA shut down. In that 13-game span, Oladipo averaged nearly 14 points on 39/30/78 splits along with three rebounds and three assists. Those numbers are to be expected knowing what’s happened to him, but not the ones you regularly want from your franchise player.
However, that last loss to Boston bred reason for optimism for Oladipo. He had his best game of the season by, scoring 27 points on 9-for-16 shooting including 5-for-7from three. Better yet, he single-handedly spurred a 9-2 run that helped the Pacers catch up to the Celtics late in the fourth quarter. He was the best player on the floor when it mattered, and he did his damage against a good team. He looked like Victor Oladipo again!
Unfortunately, his performance was like a show putting on its best episode just as it was about to go on hiatus. Because the NBA shortly put the season on hold afterward, we donโt know if it was all a fluke or if it was him trending upwards. Weโll get a better look when the season resumes.
If we get the Victor Oladipo that put the league on notice just two years ago, then the Pacers become one of the playoff sleepers with an ambiguous ceiling. Granted, Indiana has progressed enough as a team that they donโt have to rely on him as much as they did two years ago, but adding a two-way star to an already good team opens so many possibilities. It wouldnโt be the end of the world if they donโt get that version of Oladipo when the playoffs come around, but if they do, absolutely no one would want to face them in the playoffs.
If they believe that they can get the Oladipo of old, his presence would mean someone(s) else isnโt getting minutes. Playoff rotations always shorten because teams want their best guys out there. Jeremy Lambโs awful season-ending knee injury does make things simpler in that regard, but Oladipo will have to absorb a lot of minutes if Indiana wants him to get his best form back, which means the back-end rotation guys in Indiana like TJ McConnell and the Holiday brothers might be riding the pine more than what they are used to.
Oladipo at full strength is obviously a lot better than those players, but as stated before, him coming back at full strength is not a guarantee. Giving him minutes at the expense of others who have been productive is a gamble especially now that itโs looking more and more likely that the NBA will start with the playoffs right off the bat.
Letโs be honest here: You probably already knew Indyโs playoff chances revolve around how Oladipo performs. You might be asking if there are other factors at play. There most certainly are for them. Although not nearly to the same proportion as Oladipo is.
A consistent subplot over these last three years has been the shaky pairing of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. Nate McMillan, whose coaching has been among the best in the league during that time, has tried his darndest to make the pairing work. The Pacers arenโt worse when they share the court together – they have a plus-2.1 net rating as a duo — but they clearly donโt make the team better together.
Itโs clear that this team ainโt big enough for the two of โem, and this season, Sabonis has made it obvious that he is the better player of the two. Indiana should probably look into trading Turner this summer, but thatโs not relevant for why this is all being brought up. The point is, if the Pacers want to go the distance, they have to mix and match those two to the best of their abilities.
In other words, they need to stop putting themselves on the court together for an extended period of time. Itโs a shame because they are two of Indianaโs best players that just happen to play at their best at the same position. The playoffs are about playing the best lineups and exploiting the best matchups. In order to do that, they shouldnโt be playing at the same time.
Having two really good centers can be a positive though. It makes it so that the Pacers will always have at least one of them on the floor at all times. That can do wonders for them.
There are other factors at play here. TJ Warren will be getting his first taste of playoff action. Heโs done an excellent job replacing Bojan Bogdanovic this season, but who knows if that is going to continue when the playoffs start? Aaron Holiday has a much bigger role than he had last year and did not get much playoff burn as a rookie. If the Pacers entrust him in the playoffs, is he going to fill in Cory Josephโs shoes?
Thereโs also the playoff formatting thatโs still very much in the air. If they do the standard formatting, Indiana will be facing Miami in the first round for what should be a very entertaining – not to mention nostalgic – playoff series. If they decide to do seeding based on league standings, they would face Denver, which would provide a fair amount of fun matchups. We may not even get that either.
Whatever the case is, Indiana can at least sleep well at night knowing that this go-round, theyโll have their best player back on the team to lead the fight.
The biggest question is how much of the said best player will be there when they do.