NBA

Ten Bold Predictions for the 2021-22 Season

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Chad Smith
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Chad Smith Sports Editor

Chad is a Basketball Insiders contributor based in Indianapolis.

All posts by Chad Smith
Sports Editor

Updated18 Oct 2021

NBA player props and picks

Basketball is back. The 2021-22 season tips off tonight with a pair of juicy matchups. The defending champion Milwaukee Bucks will play host to Kevin Durant, James Harden, and the Brooklyn Nets. The second game features the new three-headed monster in Los Angeles as Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis face off against Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors at Staples Center.

For the first time since the 2018-19 campaign, a full 82-game schedule will comprise the regular season. The offseason was filled with changes, with both players and head coaches changing addresses. A new crop of players has entered the fold as well, with a deep and talented rookie class ready to burst onto the scene.

A new season provides optimism for 30 franchises. Every team, every player, and every coach has goals and objectives to accomplish this season. While no one can predict how this season will play out, there are a number of storylines to monitor over the course of the next eight months. Hours before the regular season tips off tonight, here are ten bold predictions that are sure to go wrong.

  1. Michael Porter Jr will win Most Improved Player

The stars were nearly aligned for Denver last season after they made the trade for Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline. Nikola Jokic was on his way to winning the MVP and Jamal Murray was establishing himself as one of the premier guards in the league. Injuries derailed their season, and the most significant one is carrying over to this season as Murray continues his rehab. Odds are that Murray will miss most of this season, meaning someone needs to shoulder the offensive load for this team.

Enter Porter Jr, who is primed for a breakout season. The talented forward enters his third season after an incredible sophomore season where he averaged 19 points and 7 rebounds per game. Looking at the rest of the roster, the Nuggets don’t have anything close to the offensive weapon that Murray is, but Porter Jr has the potential. Both Jokic and Facundo Campazzo are distributors, Gordon is their best rebounder and defender, and the rest of the role players specialize in other areas. Porter should see a significant bump in touches and scoring opportunities this season, which is why he is widely considered to be the frontrunner among breakout candidates this year.

  1. The Raptors will trade Pascal Siakam at the deadline

The 2020-21 season is one that Raptors fans would love to forget. The entire organization would like to erase that season from their memories as well. After spending all of last year away from home, the team returns to Toronto, but without a familiar face in Kyle Lowry. The veteran point guard was dealt to Miami over the offseason, which landed Toronto two key pieces. Goran Dragic may not be wearing a Raptors jersey after the trade deadline, but he might not be alone in that regard.

Precious Achiuwa was the other player involved in that trade, and he just might be the solution Toronto decides to move on from Siakam. The 22-year old had an impressive preseason after a terrific rookie campaign last year. He fits well alongside Chris Boucher and is an excellent finisher inside. The Raptors were the only team that finished in the bottom five in both clutch offense (27th) and clutch defense (26th) last season. With Siakam’s struggles over the past two seasons, the franchise may finally be ready to pull the trigger on making a deal while his value is still high.

  1. The Timberwolves will finally return to the postseason

The Timberwolves have made the playoffs one time since the 2003-04 season. That changes this year under head coach Chris Finch. The team saw significant improvement once he took over as head coach last season. Role players like Josh Okogie played better and Anthony Edwards began his descent towards stardom. Malik Beasley’s return coupled with the emergence of Jaden McDaniels are signs of optimism.

With Edwards, a healthy Karl-Anthony Towns, a focused D’Angelo, and a motivated Patrick Beverley, Minnesota is poised to turn things around. The organization is finally moving in the right direction and has some flexibility heading into this season. Depending on how the season goes, they could be major sellers or buyers at the trade deadline. With several teams in the West far from full strength, it is paramount for Minnesota to pounce early and collect some much-needed victories. It helps that seven of their first games are at home.

  1. Boston will be a top-four seed in the East

Yes, the Eastern Conference is loaded this season but it seems as though many people have given up on the Celtics. They are rarely mentioned with the title contenders but that will change as the season rolls along. At the time of this writing, both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are still on the roster. Al Horford is back for a second stint after sitting out most of last season in Oklahoma City. Marcus Smart and Josh Richardson will be key to their guard play but the real focus is on Dennis Schroder, who is betting on himself as he tries to earn a lucrative contract next year.

The roster has improved significantly, and the development of Robert Williams, Payton Pritchard, and Aaron Nesmith should allow Boston to battle for home-court advantage in the playoffs. Over the last two seasons, the Celtics are 40-45 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes. A fresh perspective from the sidelines should help, as the team hired Ime Udoka to replace Brad Stevens, who moved into the front office. The Celtics have more weapons this season and are a surprising underdog in the East.

  1. Damian Lillard will win the scoring title

Portland’s front office was pushed to the flames in the offseason, with Lillard wanting to see significant change. They may not have gotten that, but getting Larry Nance Jr was a solid addition. That being said, this team will still be fueled by Lillard’s scoring, and with their defensive struggles, they will need to put up a lot of points on most nights. The veteran point guard is certainly capable of doing just that. The Blazers were the first team in 17 years of Synergy play-type tracking to score more than one point per possession on pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions.

Much of what happens with this situation depends on how they begin the first half of the season. Four of their first five games are at home but they have the league’s toughest first 20 games in terms of cumulative opponent winning percentage from last season and back-to-backs. If Chauncey Billups can figure out their defense, the offense should be just fine. If not, Portland may be in jeopardy of losing their franchise point guard. If that is the case, Lillard is sure to go out with a bang.

  1. The Grizzlies will be a top-four seed in the West

The Grizzlies will be the breakout team this season. With Ja Morant playing at an All-Star level and Jaren Jackson Jr finally healthy and ready to leave his fingerprint on the game, they have the star power to compete. With the continued development of the rest of their roster, they have the necessary pieces to contend. The Western Conference may be slightly down this year as teams like the Lakers and Warriors take their time to get up to speed. The Clippers and Nuggets will be missing star players for the majority of the season, and Memphis is ready to strike while the iron is hot.

Kyle Anderson is coming off of a career year and Brandon Clarke is finally healthy and ready to contribute. Dillon Brooks will miss the start of the season with a broken hand but is an underrated two-way player. The addition of Steven Adams gives them a solid offensive force in the paint. Desmond Bane and De’Anthony Melton are two more young talents that appear to be ready to break out. Even the guys at the end of the bench like Jarrett Culver, Ziaire Williams, Justise Winslow, and Sam Merrill can contribute in limited minutes if needed. This roster is young, it is talented, and it is deep. They have all of the ingredients, including one of the better coaches in the league in Taylor Jenkins.

  1. Miami will be the top overall seed in the East

There is a lot to like with this team. Miami should have the top defense in the league, headlined by Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and Lowry. The veteran point guard fits perfectly with this group and appears to be the missing piece they have needed the last couple of years. The HEAT were 11.1 points per 100 possessions better with Butler on the floor (+5.2) than they were with him off the floor (-5.9) last season. That was the sixth biggest differential among 233 players who played at least 1,000 minutes for a single team. With PJ Tucker and Markieff Morris willing to do the dirty work, this is a group that teams are not going to look forward to playing.

Tyler Herro is on his way to having a major bounce-back season and Duncan Robinson continues to be a lethal weapon from the outside. The real X factor for Miami is Victor Oladipo. His name is rarely mentioned when people talk about the HEAT but should he come back healthy, he is going to put this team over the top. Erik Spoelstra will have plenty of leadership in the locker room between Butler, Lowry, and Udonis Haslem. If his team stays healthy, they should be able to secure home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

  1. Trae Young will have a major regression season

Many people expect the Hawks to take the next step this season, including this writer. The more interesting thing to monitor with this team is the play of star point guard Trae Young. With the new rules implemented this year to eliminate offensive players hunting for foul calls, it could have a seriously negative effect on Young’s production. He is crafty and has always been able to get those phantom calls, but that will not be the case this season.

Only Giannis Antetokounmpo (581) and Joel Embiid (548) shot more free throws than Young (546) last season. Those cheap fouls that Young was able to pick up got Atlanta in the bonus situation many times, which ballooned their offensive numbers. Young shot 34 percent from downtown last year, which is his career average through three seasons. The Hawks have incredible depth, which will likely limit his volume of shots this year. Players will adjust and the Hawks will be just fine, but this rule change, coupled with the sheer depth of Atlanta’s roster will likely pull Young’s overall numbers down this year.

  1. Kevin Durant will win the 2021-22 MVP award

Durant has done just about everything that you can do in this league. He has won championships, regular season, NBA Finals, and All-Star game MVP awards, led the league in scoring three times, won Rookie of the Year, and is arguably the greatest scorer in the history of the game. No one was quite sure what to expect last year when he returned from injury, but he quickly reminded everyone that he was still a superstar.

After nearly single-handedly carrying the Nets to the Conference Finals last summer, he went on to lead Team USA to another gold medal in the Tokyo Olympics. He is the undisputed leader of the team and arguably the best player in the league. On top of all of that, he is an excellent defender and can score against anyone, from anywhere on the court. With the uncertainty of Kyrie Irving and the health of James Harden, Brooklyn’s title hopes may once again rest on the shoulders of Durant, who thrives in pressure situations. There will be several worthy candidates, but Durant will earn another MVP award this season.

  1. New York will not make the playoffs

Last season was special for New York, who finally got the train back on the tracks. Tom Thibodeau brought his magic with him to the Big Apple, and the team was thriving. Julius Randle had a career year and was the focal point of the offense. The team is ready to take the next step, but how much did this team improve over the summer? Kemba Walker is a great addition on paper, but will he hold up for 82 games plus the postseason? Evan Fournier is a solid pickup but can he play defense or contribute in other areas besides shooting? Can Randle duplicate what he did last season?

New York resigned most of their own free agents, but they lost a valuable role player in Reggie Bullock. The Knicks were the only team that ranked in the top 10 in three-point percentage but in the bottom 10 in the percentage of their shots that came from three-point range. They led the league in clutch three-point percentage but their starting backcourt will have to stay healthy in order to produce similar results. It was a big gamble to add the veterans Walker and Fournier, considering their already crowded guard rotation with RJ Barrett, Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Miles McBride, and Quentin Grimes.

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