Team USA Now 16.5-Point Favorite Against France in Gold Medal Game

Team USA, the men’s basketball team, entered the Paris Olympics as a -550 favorite to win the gold medal, but the Americans dropped as low as +300 on the live money line and +5.5 on the live spread near the end of the third quarter against Serbia in Thursday’s semifinal matchup.

The U.S. national team overcame a 17-point deficit against three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic and the Serbian squad to win 95-91. Despite the rare rally, the Americans are back to being the clear-cut favorites for the gold medal game Saturday against host nation France.

According to ESPN BET odds, Team USA opened as a -14.5 favorite and has since moved to -16.5 for Saturday’s game. Dating back to the United States’ bronze medal in 2004, the team has typically been the favorite in Olympic gold medal games.

Though it was a close win against Serbia, the US is still a double digit favorite against France for the gold medal 🥇 pic.twitter.com/wRJFlvTAHL

— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) August 8, 2024

The Americans had -21 and -20 spreads against Spain in 2008 and 2012, respectively. They also had a -15 spread against Serbia in 2016, and -12.5 against France at the delayed 2020 Olympic Games, per ESPN Stats & Information.

“We expect them to play the game of their life because they’re going to have the home-court adrenaline, they’re riding a big momentum after these last two games,” said Stephen Curry, who scored a game-high 36 points against Serbia. “We’ve got to expect them to play great, but we expect that from ourselves as well.”

Since 2004, Team USA is 1-3 against the spread, covering only in 2016. Gamblers are expecting the Americans to win their fifth consecutive Olympic gold on Saturday.

Team USA has 74% of the tickets, 96% of the handle for gold medal futures at ESPN BET

BetMGM has the Americans at -1600 odds to win the gold medal. Meanwhile, France has +900 odds to win the gold. On the moneyline, the U.S. is at -2000, while France is at +900. The over/under for the game is 176.5 points.

At ESPN BET, the U.S. has an overwhelming 74% of the tickets and 96% of the handle for gold medal futures. According to other sportsbooks, FanDuel (42% of bets, 88% of money) and BetMGM (32.1% of bets, 81.3% of money) are currently displaying similar figures.

Prior to advancing to the gold medal game, France entered its semifinal matchup with Germany possessing +1100 odds to win the gold at ESPN BET. The French’s odds tied them with Canada for second place overall. France is being led by NBA stars Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert.

Experts pick their favourites for 🥇 and MVP in Men's #Basketball 🔝

Who you got? 🤔#Paris2024

— FIBA (@FIBA) August 9, 2024

However, the French fell to +1300 odds because of the large inflow of bets. ESPN BET reported at the beginning of the tournament that Les Bleus received 24.8% of tickets, tying the United States.

The U.S. and France were heavily bet on throughout the Olympics. The top five most-wagered men’s basketball games at the Paris Games for ESPN BET and DraftKings involved the Americans or the French.

Overall, men’s basketball has been one of the biggest handle generators for sportsbooks. BetMGM informed ESPN’s Doug Greenberg that 19 of its top 20 most-bet Olympic events were for men’s basketball.

Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James is fighting to secure his third gold. James, 39, leads the Team USA squad in both points (14.2) and assists (8.2), with seven rebounds per game. Against Serbia, the four-time NBA MVP notched his second career Olympic triple-double.