NBA Draft
Rutgers Basketball: Evaluating Dylan Harper’s Elite Passing Potential
From the moment he stepped on a college basketball court, Dylan Harper has been one of the nation’s best players. Rutgers’ freshman guard sits near the top of most 2025 NBA Draft boards on account of his elite driving and strong passing potential. His 30% assist rate and 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio are stellar, but we can learn much more about his passing.
I hand-tracked nearly all of Harper’s passes using Synergy, just as I did for Kasparas Jakucionis. Here’s that data before we dive into the details:
i hand tracked (almost) all of dylan harper’s passes so far this season, here’s the data i collected (via synergy). really impressive work under pressure/avoiding passing turnovers
definitions and the jakucionis charting in the thread below pic.twitter.com/fJxnadB2BS
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 14, 2025
Once again, hand-tracking passing attempts aims to capture more about a prospect’s passing projection. High-value passes, weak hand passes and productivity under pressure are all critical for NBA lead guard passers despite not being present in the box score.
All assists are not created equal even though they’re all worth the same in the box score. Tracking “big-time passes,” inspired by Pro Football Focus’s “big-time throw” metric, helps us understand what kind of passes a player throws. I subjectively weigh the size of a passing window, timing, manipulation, the result of a pass and other passing superlatives to determine this.
Dylan Harper is a high-value passer
Out of 136 “passing chances,” defined as assists, potential assists and passing turnovers, Harper tossed a “big-time pass” on 20.6% of those chances and on 22.2% of his potential assists. That’s slightly fewer than Jakucionis, another phenomenal passer.
Let’s use this next clip as an example. Dylan Harper faces a double team, stares at the wing to freeze the help defender and passes inside for a wide-open dunk. He flashes valuable traits here — poise under duress and manipulation — to create a high-value shot:
good look at dylan harper’s ability to create high value shots under pressure with a little lookoff for good measure: pic.twitter.com/xfpiYd1dk4
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 14, 2025
In the first clip of the video below, Harper manipulates the weak side defender with his eyes, leading the cutter right into the paint. I’d classify the passes in the video as “big-time passes” given the high level of skill and vision they showcase:
dylan harper threw some disgusting passes in his college debut, the vision, creativity and skill are all surgical. he’s a wicked playmaker
only 4 assists but i counted 12 potential assists in total pic.twitter.com/hQfZd25knb
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 8, 2024
Dylan Harper thrives under pressure
Elite lead guards at the NBA level must handle and crack pressure, especially given modern defenses’ tendency to trap and blitz. Harper’s passing against pressure has been phenomenal despite seeing a decent amount of pressure. He recorded just three passing turnovers (10%) on his 30 chances under pressure, showcasing initiator-quality poise and zen with the ball.
The vast majority of Harper’s turnovers resulted from handling errors, travels or offensive fouls. Just 10 of his 35 turnovers came via passes. They resulted equally from poor decisions or passing angle/timing/delivery choices. When Harper tightens his ball control, as many young guards do, he’ll be a nightmare for teams to double. Harper’s ability to consistently break traps and hedges with his passing, despite commanding a huge 28.9% usage rate, is impressive.
Evaluating passing skill
I analyzed all 126 of Harper’s potential assists to learn more about his specific passing tendencies. An enormous 26.2% of those potential assists led to easy shots at the rim (compared to 14.3% for Jakucionis).
Harper loves zipping passes through defenders to cutters and rollers and his offenses benefit greatly. He doesn’t pass as much out of his drives, though, with just 12.7% of his potential assists resulting from his own paint touches. When Harper touches the paint, he tends to shoot or draw a foul, rather than passing out.
Elite passers must manipulate defenses with their eyes, body movement or ball fakes. Dylan Harper manipulated defenses on 7.1% of his potential assists, coincidentally the exact same rate as Jakucionis. He loves to pump fake and toy with the ball before finding his chosen passing angle. He’ll occasionally pass with his right hand (5.5% rate and use the live dribble (10.3% rate), but Harper prefers picking the ball up and passing with two hands.
As always, any sort of hand-tracking is inherently subjective and prone to human error. A different scout charting the same plays may come up with completely different results. Still, this exercise can help us learn more about the specifics of prospect traits. Tracking more prospects’ passing will help us compare and contrast to determine which are the true best passers in the draft.