Parsing the 2015 NBA Finals Chessboard

Just as they do every year, the 2015 NBA playoffs have highlighted several bits of minutiae that see far less attention during the 82-game regular season. There have been several major themes this year, from rest and injury concerns to the ever-present conference imbalance at play. But like always, the largest and most noticeable differences are tactical and schematic in nature.

Rather than traveling around the NBA globe with a different opponent on the docket every two or three nights, a given team has just one foe on whom to focus for an extended period of time. They can spend practice time zeroing in on even the opposition’s tiniest weaknesses, and furthermore can use each game in the series as a chance to re-adjust. It’s not always the case, but when personnel and other factors aren’t separated by much, the side that stays a step ahead in this game within the game gets over the top more often than not.

Matchups become of paramount importance, and with the Finals now set between two of the most individually talented teams in the league, 2015’s ultimate series may hinge on several specifically. Let’s take a preliminary look at the chess game that begins June 4 in Golden State.

Warriors Ball

What each defense does against the opposing point guard might be the most fascinating element of all, particularly during Golden State’s offensive possessions. Even a fully healthy Kyrie Irving is a major liability against Stephen Curry, and if he’s anywhere below 100 percent it seems difficult to imagine Cleveland sticking him on that island for long periods.

How to work around this issue is really tough. The Warriors are such a menace in part because, beyond their stars, they just have so few weak points. Where does Kyrie hide, especially when both sets of starters are on the floor?

Iman Shumpert is the natural candidate to draw big minutes on Curry, but this leaves Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes for Irving and LeBron James to manage, with zero perfect options. LeBron is fine anywhere for periods, but asking him to consistently chase Thompson around screens – ones Steve Kerr would dial up a notch or two to wear James down – would almost certainly detract from what will continue to be a huge load on the other end of the floor.

Irving may get some of those duties if David Blatt decides it isn’t worth the tradeoff with LeBron, which could be dangerous. Thompson can both post up and shoot over Kyrie regularly, and lingering health issues won’t be helped much by slamming through multiple well-set picks every possession.

There are workarounds available, though imperfect. Blatt should and likely will consider pulling Kyrie early in the first and third quarters before reinserting him during Curry’s typical rest time at the start of the second and fourth. Matthew Dellavedova isn’t exactly a bona fide stopper, but he’s likely enough of an upgrade over Irving to allow Shumpert and James to shift down to Thompson and Barnes respectively. The Cavs will also play long periods with just one traditional big on the floor, which could open up a number of further options with either James or Shumpert spending time on Draymond Green (or a Barnes/Andre Iguodala type when the Warriors go even smaller than usual).

Their biggest combatant to mismatches, both with smaller and bigger lineups of their own on the floor, will be switches everywhere, especially as the shot clock gets under 10 seconds or so. No one has stopped the Warriors yet, but those who have come closest have often done so by giving switches, even some that look silly on the surface, and daring the Warriors to abandon their preferred team ball to attack them.

Allowing Curry an isolation against someone like Tristan Thompson isn’t ideal in a vacuum, and neither is allowing Green to post up a smaller guard like Irving or Dellavedova. But both are likely preferable in the long run to the alternatives – leaving Curry space to fire away around high two-man action (not a realistic option) or blitzing him up high and allowing a dump-off for a four-on-three with deadly shooters and a lob threat at the rim.

Thompson is the key here. If Blatt does indeed choose to go this route, particularly with Curry on the floor, there’s a chance the Warriors may play Timofey Mozgov off the floor for periods by repeatedly putting him into high pick-and-rolls and forcing him to switch onto Steph, which just isn’t a tenable option in the long run. The logical endpoint here would be for Blatt to downgrade to Thompson at center with James or Shumpert (or James Jones with bench units) checking Green, to whom they would concede post chances in favor of a barrage of open three-pointers. Thompson has been excellent so far this postseason when switched onto smaller players. However, Curry will be by far his biggest challenge yet, and how he fares could play a large role in how well Cleveland can stifle the most lethal offense in the league.

There are other bits to dissect, though Curry and the trickle-down effect of his coverage encompass many of them in some shape or form. The Warriors crushed teams all year with their uber-tiny lineups featuring Green at center, but at least in theory these should be manageable and even perhaps relatively advantageous for the Cavs. Thompson matches up as well as any individual in the league with Draymond, and Cleveland has the cumulative advantage at the four here with James and Shumpert over Barnes and Iguodala. Shaun Livingston may also present an issue or two for Blatt’s smaller point guards.

As noted above, there are no perfect answers, especially when Curry is on the floor. Kerr will be expecting many of these tactics and should have answers of his own at the ready. And even if the Cavs pull things off perfectly, with optimal tweaks and adjustments at every step, a prolonged hot streak from Golden State is still just waiting to happen. Cleveland needs exemplary focus and bits of good luck, and even that may not be enough.

Cavs Ball

Switches are a big theme for the Warriors as well, and have been all year. Their like-sized group allows them to do as much of it as anyone with great results. Interestingly enough, though, the Finals could be a rare instance where they’re often better off playing things more straight up in many circumstances, even as their opponent mimics their own typical style.

LeBron and Kyrie are the outliers who make this the case, of course. Generally, the Warriors have been completely fine with neutering opposing two-man stuff, trusting their stable of good to great defenders to hold their own after switches and inviting teams to pursue generally low-efficiency isolations. But James and Irving complicate this math a tad as two of the best one-on-one offensive players in the league, and while the Cavs are almost certainly a bit too reliant on it at times, it could sway things a bit. If they notice Golden State giving switches too liberally early on, they’ll start running high screens just for this purpose – don’t expect the Warriors to give these up as easily as they may have in the past, particularly for true mismatches like Curry-on-James or Andrew Bogut-on-Irving.

They don’t have nearly the same issues as their opponent at the point, which is a key difference. Curry really improved as a defender this season, and even if Kyrie starts roasting him – a distinct possibility if they start him there – Thompson is waiting in the wings with Shumpert serving as an easy hiding place for Curry. This perhaps gets a tad murkier if J.R. Smith sees time in similar lineups instead of Shumpert, but he’s a big downgrade defensively, and the Warriors will live with Smith making his ridiculous fallaways over Irving killing them in a more efficient manner.

LeBron is a little dicier. The Warriors have multiple guys capable of checking him for stretches, even long ones – Barnes and Iguodala will likely get primary duties when either is on the floor, with Thompson and Green both good options in a pinch. But in all honesty, none of these present quite the challenge that (healthy) DeMarre Carroll or especially Jimmy Butler did in the last few series, and none even approximates the guy LeBron faced in last year’s Finals.

It may not end up being a big deal… or it may. The Warriors are among the league’s best at denying post entries for mismatches with their team scheme, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against LeBron. The Cavs aren’t excellent at punishing over-helping elsewhere on the floor, but they’ve improved enough over the latter part of the season and have just enough shooting to make it a concern. And if they can consistently get James good positioning on the block, he’s one of the few individuals in the league who could really hurt the Warriors’ scheme with his combination of skills.

It’s entirely possible Kerr shrugs and continues to do things his usual way, counting on his team system to prevail against a couple of superior individuals. Both Cleveland stars are quite effective in pick-and-roll actions also, and the Warriors may choose to eliminate those like they have all season and live with the results. They have likely the best help-and-recover scheme in the league anchored by Bogut and Green, and couldn’t be criticized for sticking to their guns. Perhaps even more likely is some middle ground that shifts as the series goes on.

The other primary point of concern for Golden State is the defensive glass. The Cavs as a team are rebounding a percentage of their own misses thus far in the playoffs that would have barely trailed the Jazz for the league’s top spot in the regular season. And their 32 percent offensive rebounding figure while Mozgov and Thompson share the floor blows Utah’s out of the water while still somehow seemingly understating how dominant they’ve been. It’s almost seemed like a tactic at times – Cleveland knows it can’t beat teams with precision offense while both play, so they position them well down low and get the best shot they can, knowing nearly a third of their misses will result in second chances.

In an unusual circumstance, Green will meet an adversary in Thompson who matches and may actually exceed his intensity level at times. A huge part of this battle will come down to whether Draymond can succeed where his Eastern counterparts failed in keeping Tristan at bay on the glass without limiting his effectiveness elsewhere. The Warriors can also do themselves favors by targeting Mozgov in their own pick-and-roll sets and attempting to play him off the floor, as mentioned above, but Thompson is such a force that the Cavs have nearly maintained their silly rate on the offensive glass this postseason even while he’s the only big on the floor.

On a tangential note, the way both teams operate in transition – an area where they’re far and away the two most efficient teams in the playoffs – will be telling also. Their opponents surely play heavily into it, but the Cavs have turned a middling defense against opposing attacks on the break (both in terms of efficiency against and frequency of chances allowed) from the regular season into the league’s best in the playoffs. They’re allowing the fewest chances per game of any team, per Synergy Sports, and only the long-eliminated Mavericks were stingier on the chances they did give up.

Some of this is noise, but allowing so few chances while crashing the offensive boards with such extremity is a rarity and a big positive for the Cavs – especially against a Warriors group among the league leaders the entire year for both frequency and efficiency on the break. The Cavs could help themselves further level the playing field if they could continue this strong positive combination, but this will be easily their toughest task yet in this regard. On the flip side, the series might be over before it gets started if the Warriors can win this battle, neutralize LeBron and his teammates and minimize their badly-needed easy points.

This is such a fascinating series of matchups, even if many of the most likely outcomes see the Warriors dominating much of the play. Both coaches have done excellent work tactically this postseason, and it should be great to watch them try and gain the upper hand. Let the games begin (in a week).