10 NBA Predictions for 2016

With the New Year upon us, we thought it might be fun to look into the crystal ball and make some predictions on the more commonly asked questions about the NBA’s New Year.

With that in mind, I dragged in Alex Kennedy to play along and offer an alternate opinion on free agency, trades, coaching moves, award winners and much more. Here is what we came up with:

Which Big-Name Player is Traded?

While there is no doubting Joakim Noah’s value to the Chicago Bulls as a locker room leader and heart and soul guy, history has shown the Bulls have been quick to pull the trade trigger on guys they feel they may get priced out of in free agency. With Noah posting some of the worst numbers of his career and the Bulls struggling to adapt to a new system under head coach Fred Hoiberg, Noah may not only be one of the biggest names traded at the February 18 trade deadline, he may return the most value. With Noah’s free agent price tag expected to go up in July and with his free agency being unrestricted, there is a real risk of losing Noah for nothing in return and that risk – along with his potential to return real value – means Noah could be the odd man out.

– Steve Kyler

Dwight Howard has a $23,282,457 player option for next season, meaning he can become an unrestricted free agent this summer. For that reason alone, the Houston Rockets should be doing their due diligence and seeing what Howard can return in a trade. If the organization doesn’t feel that Howard will stay long-term, they should move him before the February trade deadline. I could see a one-piece-away team like the Atlanta Hawks or Toronto Raptors swinging for the fences by acquiring Howard and trying to make a deep run this season.

– Alex Kennedy

Where Will Tom Thibodeau Coach Next?

The Houston Rockets. Thibodeau passed on re-building situations after he was fired from Chicago, telling people close to him that he couldn’t stomach 30-loss seasons, so he opted to sit out and wait for a winning situation. Knowing that Thibodeau seeks a “win-now” team, Houston might be the best job open this summer. The Rockets know Thibodeau from his time on Jeff Van Gundy’s staff and his defensive-minded approach lines up with the way the Rockets see the world. The only question is will Daryl Morey and team owner Les Alexander open the check book and meet what could be a $6-7 million a year salary? If they will, Thibodeau could land in Houston.

– Steve Kyler

I just can’t see Thibodeau going to the Rockets due to their dysfunction and defensive issues, especially with Dwight Howard potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent in July. I think the Washington Wizards make a lot of sense for Thibs. This year, Washington has failed to live up to expectations, so it’s possible that Randy Wittman is shown the door. If that happens, the roster seems perfect for Thibodeau. He would have a number of young guys who can play a ton of minutes, and Washington is a good defensive team (they were the fifth-best defense in the NBA last season). Not to mention, the East is more wide open than the West. Yes, the Cleveland Cavaliers are in the East, but I’m not scared of the other teams in the conference, whereas the West has the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder among others. I’d love to watch a Thibodeau-coached Wizards team.

– Alex Kennedy

Which Team Lands the Top Overall Pick?

I’m going with the Brooklyn Nets. The NBA lottery has been a cruel bedfellow. Over the last 20 years, the team with the worst record has won the lottery just three times and just once in the last decade (last year to Minnesota). In that same 20-year span, the top pick has fallen all over the place, so why not Brooklyn? Here is why Brooklyn becomes interesting: they don’t own the pick. It was traded to the Boston Celtics as part of the deal that brought Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to Brooklyn. It would be poetic that they no longer have either player and then lose the top pick as well. That’s simply too good of theater not to entertain. Wouldn’t it also be poetic that the Celtics’ future Hall Famers that were traded so unceremoniously ultimately ended up producing a future franchise cornerstone? The lottery has been a cruel bedfellow, so why change now?

– Steve Kyler

The Philadelphia 76ers have to win it at some point, right? Throughout their tanking rebuild, they have yet to win a top-two pick. The highest they have gotten is No. 3, which is where they picked Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid. I think this is the year that changes and Philly wins the Ben Simmons sweepstakes. The interesting thing to watch is where the Los Angeles Lakers’ pick falls. If it’s outside of the top three, it belongs to Philadelphia, meaning the 76ers could have two of the first four picks (in addition to later first-round picks from the Miami HEAT and Oklahoma City Thunder). This is an extremely important year for Philadelphia’s rebuild.

– Alex Kennedy

Where Will Kevin Durant Land in Free Agency?

Oklahoma City. As much as no one wants to hear this, I think Durant is staying right where he is. What is often dismissed is how much Durant genuinely likes living and playing in Oklahoma City. Wisely, the Thunder opted to part ways with long-time head coach Scott Brooks last summer and brought in a new coach in Billy Donovan, who has not only reached Durant on a personal level but also figured out a way for both Durant and Russell Westbrook to play at a MVP-level at the same time. The Thunder’s message this summer will be that OKC offers the best chance at winning a title and, barring some kind of epic collapse down the stretch, the Thunder should in a position to put results behind their pledge.  Durant has signed some mega endorsement deals over the last two years so he will genuinely enter the process with money not being a factor in his decision. Durant likely shops, as every free agent should, but ultimately I think he stays in OKC for the rest of his career.

– Steve Kyler

It’s very possible that Durant will stay with Oklahoma City since he’s comfortable there and has a strong supporting cast. Also, he doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who desperately wants to play in a big market – the fact that he already leads the NBA in endorsement dollars shows he doesn’t need be in New York or Los Angeles to build his brand. I think the only way he leaves Oklahoma City is to go home to the Washington Wizards. John Wall is good friends with Durant; in October, Wall told me: “When the opportunity is right to go ahead and throw a [free agency] pitch at him, I’m going to get the opportunity to do it.” I think Washington’s young core is appealing, the idea of going home is tempting and playing in the East is attractive as well. I’m starting to realize that this article is becoming a dream scenario for the Wizards, with Durant and Thibodeau coming to town. We’ll see what happens.

– Alex Kennedy

Can The 76ers Land a Significant Free Agent?

Yes. As much grief as the 76ers franchise has gotten for their blatant “tank and rebuild” program, they are well positioned for this summer. They will have a roster loaded with interesting rookie-scale players like Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel and what could be more than $65 million in cap space with new Chairman of Basketball Jerry Colangelo speed dialing Team USA players. The 76ers won’t be landing a Kevin Durant or a Mike Conley, but when you talk about the team that will set the price on more veteran type guys, look for the 76ers to be that team even if it costs them a few million more than someone is worth. They are ready for that kind of move.

– Steve Kyler

I’m going to say yes. I don’t think they’ll land a “major” free agent – as in one of the top players on the market – but I do think it’s safe to say that they’ll have a shot at a “significant” free agent. For quite some time, I’ve said that next year is the season I expect to see the 76ers winning more games. Their young guys will have some experience, they’ll add a couple more first-round talents to the team, Dario Saric and Joel Embiid may make their debuts and the front office should bring in some free agents. This team could look very different next season and I think Philly is definitely a team to watch in free agency, especially with Jerry Colangelo there.

– Alex Kennedy

Who Will Win the 2015-16 MVP?

Can you bet against Steph Curry as a back-to-back MVP? If you are willing to do that, which I am not sure I am, I would offer up another candidate: Kawhi Leonard. Now before we go nuts on this, Curry is the prohibited favorite and considering the media votes for this award, he may win his second MVP by a pretty tidy margin. But while Curry runs toward another award, Leonard has emerged as not only one of the NBA’s best lockdown defenders, he has evolved into a borderline elite level offensive player. Leonard rarely gets the credit or exposure he deserves, which may prevent him from getting serious MVP consideration. But if it’s not going to be Curry for a second time, why not Leonard?

– Steve Kyler

Look, I love Kawhi Leonard. He’s a great dude and an amazing defender, but you and I both know he’s not winning the MVP award. If Steph Curry doesn’t win it, the award would go to someone like Paul George, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant before it goes to Leonard. But that argument doesn’t matter because Curry is the MVP. Last year, Curry had four times as many votes as anyone else in the MVP race, and now he’s playing even better and simply not losing games. It also helps his case that the Warriors looked terrible last night when he wasn’t on the floor. Nobody is taking the award from Curry this year.

– Alex Kennedy

Who Is the Dark Horse Playoff Team?

The Miami HEAT. On paper Miami should be a lot better than their current record. On paper, the HEAT have a tremendous amount of fire power and depth. The problem with the HEAT is Goran Dragic has been a shell of himself, they have had some quirky injuries and while Dwyane Wade has been more than expected, the HEAT have yet to put together a long stretch of games where it all fits as it should. If Miami can figure that out come playoff time, they could be very scary. The problem with banking on Miami is all the “ifs” have to line up and there are a lot of “ifs” to consider.

– Steve Kyler

I think it has to be the Miami HEAT. This team can be extremely good when they’re at full strength, and they’re an experienced group that knows what it takes to make a deep playoff run. They may not be near the top of the Eastern Conference standings right now, but they’re going to be the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs.

– Alex Kennedy

Who Will be the 2015-16 Rookie of The Year?

Karl Anthony-Towns is the easy answer. He has been stellar in almost every phase of the game and his fit next to Andrew Wiggins in Minnesota is nearly perfect. That said, Rookie of the Year is a media voted award and while KAT is playing really well, Kristaps Porzingis might have captured the attention on a much bigger stage. If Porzingis has a strong finish to the season, he might make the race a lot tighter than maybe it should be. That’s what happens when a budding star shows up in a major market.

– Steve Kyler

The fact that Kristaps Porzingis plays in New York will help him, because his accomplishments have received a ton of attention and he’s been a feel-good story with the way he has exceeded expectations. Jahlil Okafor will receive consideration as well, especially if his numbers improve now that Philadelphia is playing some competent point guards like Ish Smith and Kendall Marshall. With that said, I think Karl-Anthony Towns is the frontrunner right now. I really didn’t expect him to be this good, this fast. However, he has been fantastic on both ends of the floor and I think it’s his award to lose at this point.

– Alex Kennedy

Will The Knicks Trade Carmelo Anthony?

As much as the Knicks may want to dream about life without Carmelo Anthony, the truth is they are stuck with him until he decides he wants a change and that may never happen during the course of his current contract. At the time Anthony opted for his current deal, there was talk around his situation that turning away the extra millions from the Knicks was too much guaranteed money to pass on and that he could always demand a trade later if it did not work. If that’s genuinely the case, then maybe there is room for that this summer if the Knicks again fail to make the postseason. There are some around the situation who point to legacy as the next important part of Anthony’s career and if it’s not going to happen in New York, would he genuinely consider a trade scenario this summer? The likely answer is no, but there are some who believe he might be open to it if things don’t look to be trending upward at season’s end.

– Steve Kyler

No. They’ll hold onto him and continue to pursue free agents this summer. The only way I can see a Carmelo trade happening is if he becomes disgruntled and demands it, or if the team is clearly going young and he just doesn’t fit their long-term plan anymore. However, I don’t think that would happen for quite some time so I don’t expect an Anthony trade in 2016 or the near future.

– Alex Kennedy

Will The Lakers Land a Major Free Agent?

The short answer is no. As much as Lakers fans would love to hear Kevin Durant is coming, the truth is that’s not very likely. What is likely is the Lakers have their pick of the next tier of guys that fit their rebuild better and give them the flexibility to be active in the trade market. There are a few small exceptions – the Lakers may be the team that sets the price on Miami’s Hassan Whiteside and they could also be the team that gets after proven veterans looking for bigger deals than their home teams would consider. That puts the Lakers in the mix for a guy like Joakim Noah. The Lakers are well positioned for a strong summer, they may just have to choose from the next tier of guys rather than the bigger names.

– Steve Kyler

The player I think is most interesting for Los Angeles is Hassan Whiteside, who will be an unrestricted free agent. I think the Lakers should only pursue young free agents, that way they will fit with their core of Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell, Larry Nance Jr., etc. Whiteside is only 26 years old and he would greatly improve the Lakers’ defense while also complementing Randle well. I think he’s the guy L.A. should pursue the hardest. Another interesting name for the Lakers to consider is Harrison Barnes. He’s only 23 years old and could be interested in taking on a bigger role in a huge market rather than being a role player behind Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. The only problem is that he’s a restricted free agent, so the Lakers would likely have to throw a front-loaded max contract his way if they want to have any shot at landing him (and Golden State may still match). But imagine if the Lakers were to land Whiteside and Barnes this summer? It’s a long shot, but life after Kobe Bryant suddenly wouldn’t be so bad.

– Alex Kennedy

We hope this piece was as fun for you as it was for us. We hope you have a safe and happy New Year and we’ll see you in 2016!