NBA Saturday: Suns’ Playoff Hopes Dimming

The Phoenix Suns were the biggest surprise team in the NBA last season. With a new head coach and a young roster, the Suns were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. Instead, the Suns made a big trade for point guard Eric Bledsoe, and placed him in the starting lineup next to fellow point guard Goran Dragic. Despite a knee injury that kept Bledsoe out for almost half the season, the Suns finished with 48 wins and nearly made the playoffs in the stacked Western Conference.

Then, last offseason, the Suns made one of the more interesting, and what many NBA analysts considered to be savvier acquisitions of the offseason. Phoenix acquired point guard Isaiah Thomas from the Sacramento Kings via a sign and trade (four-year, $27,000,000). With Bledsoe and Dragic already on the team, the acquisition seemed redundant, but last season Thomas put up numbers that rivaled Kyrie Irving’s, making Thomas a potential steal at roughly $6,750,000 per year. Thomas was also insurance in the event Bledsoe went to another team this offseason (as a restricted free agent), and/or Dragic potentially leaving Phoenix after this season (as an unrestricted free agent*).

But the addition of Thomas, along with retaining several key players like the Morris Twins, P.J Tucker, and Miles Plumlee, has not resulted in a significant improvement on last season’s performance. Last season, the Suns went 48-34, and finished eighth in in the league in offensive efficiency (107.1 points per 100 possessions) and 18th in defensive efficiency (103.8 points allowed per 100 possessions), which was good for a 3.3 net rating (tenth best in the NBA).  This season, through 27 games, the Suns are 12^th in offensive efficiency (105 points per 100 possessions) and 17^th in defensive efficiency (103.9 points allowed per 100 possessions), resulting in a 1.1 net rating. This isn’t a huge statistical drop off and the season is still young, so there is time to improve. However, in the West, if you aren’t improving, you are falling behind (as we saw this week with the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets upgrading their rosters via trades for Rajon Rondo and Corey Brewer) and the Suns are currently at risk of losing pace to the New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder, who are each currently jockeying for the eighth seed.

One of the main issues for the Suns so far this season is their lack of an impact big man, and heavy reliance on Miles Plumlee and Alex Len. The Suns are getting outplayed by opposing power forwards and centers on a nightly basis, and are grabbing just 48.2 percent of all rebounds, which is fourth worst in the NBA. In addition, the Suns lack an elite rim protector and as a result are allowing the most made field goals at the rim per game in the league (13.8) and 61.1 percent opponent shooting (seventh highest) within five feet of the rim on 31.3 attempts per game. This was an issue for the Suns last season as well, as they allowed 12.6 made field goals at the rim per game, which was the second most in the league. This is an area that Phoenix did not address this offseason, which makes the Thomas signing appear even more problematic (though it is not all that easy to acquire a good rim protector either in free agency or via a trade, as we currently see with the Cleveland Cavaliers).

The inability to protect the painted area is a fundamental flaw with this Suns team, which can only be truly addressed by adding a more effective defensive big man. This is especially true considering that Len is allowing opponents to shoot 57.8 percent on 6.1 shot attempts at the rim per game, while Plumlee is allowing opponents to shoot 54.7 percent on 8.3 attempts. To put these numbers in perspective, among all players that guard against at least six field goal attempts at the rim per game, Len surrenders the fifth highest shooting percentage, while Plumlee surrenders the ninth highest.

However, it should be noted that there are more things to consider on the defensive end than just interior defense. In fact, the Suns only allow opponents to make seven three-pointer per game, fifth lowest in the league (tied with the San Antonio Spurs and Indiana Pacers), on 34.7 percent shooting (eleventh lowest percentage in the league). But NBA offenses more than ever before are geared towards generating shots at the rim and beyond-the-arc and the inability to defend both types of shots effectively limits the potential of any team. A good example of a team that does both is the Golden State Warriors, who allow opponents to make 6.6 three-pointers per game on just 30.8 percent shooting, and holds opposing teams to a league best 54.3 percent shooting within five feet of the basket. The ability to guard against both types of shots is one of the fundamental things that makes the Warriors a true contender and arguably the best team in the league. Considering this, until they upgrade their interior defense, the Suns will have to hope they can simply outscore their opponents each night (like the Cavaliers); an approach that will likely result in another season outside of the playoffs.

This is an especially problematic approach since the Suns offense is currently not firing on all cylinders, despite the return of most of last year’s key players and the addition of Thomas.

Part of the problem is that despite having three very good point guards, the Suns aren’t generating a lot of points per game off of assists. In fact, the Suns are only averaging 289.8 passes per game (20^th), 20.9 assists per game (18^th), 42.3 assist opportunities per game (20^th), and 50.5 points created by assists per game (14^th). The fact that the Suns are not rated particularly high in any of these categories does not mean they don’t or can’t have a potent offense. Many good offensive teams generate points out of isolation situations, such as the teams that have a dominant big man that can score buckets with his back to the basket.

But these numbers are indicative of a team that is not moving the ball as well as it should be, especially for a team that purposely tries to spread the floor and create catch-and-shoot opportunities for its perimeter players. Jeff Hornacek recently addressed this issue.

“These guys are all very good offensive players,” Hornacek said recently to Paul Coro of AZCentral. “They think they can take their guys at all times. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. They should be good enough offensively where they can create something for a teammate.”

Until the Suns are able to ramp up their offensive output to overcome their defensive deficiencies, they will likely keep slipping further and further away from the eighth seed in the West. Head coach Jeff Hornacek will have to find creative ways of maximizing the talent on his roster, which is something he did a masterful job of last season. One potential option is to play Thomas, Bledsoe and Dragic together more often, as they have posted a scorching 114.6 points per 100 possessions in the 44 minutes they have played together this season. When these three play together, the Suns are surrendering 106.6 points per 100 possessions, which is more than their overall season average (and would be the 24th worst in the league), but is offset by the scoring output (8.0 net rating). The sample size is small, but it shows potential and should at least be explored further.

Another issue Hornacek has to deal with is the Suns’ inability to close out close games. Through their first 27 games, the Suns have lost eight games by six points or less. A big part of the issue for the Suns in clutch situations, especially during their recent six game losing streak, has been tied to a heightened reliance on three-point shooting, as explained by Dave King of Brightside of the Sun. During the losing streak, in the closing minutes of the game, the Suns shot 62 percent of their field goals from beyond-the-arc, but only made 23 percent of them. This is something that Hornacek will need to address, otherwise the Suns will take the place of the Timberwolves, who last season lost an inordinate amount of close games in the first half of the season.

Another solution is to trade away one of their point guards in exchange for a decent big man. Ideally, that big man could score inside, find open shooters when double-teamed, and protect the rim effectively. Those types of players are hard to find, however, and it’s not likely that any player aside from Bledsoe could net such a big man (especially considering Dragic will be an unrestricted free agent after this season). The best case scenario would likely be dealing Thomas, as part of a bigger deal, for a player like Greg Monroe, who many believe will leave Detroit after this season as an unrestricted free agent. But again, even Monroe doesn’t address the Suns’ interior defense issue since he isn’t much of a shot blocker himself. But at least he offers interior scoring, rebounding, and passing.

What is clear is that the Suns need to figure out their issues as soon as possible. The Oklahoma City Thunder are streaking (winners in eight of their last ten games), and are currently tied for ninth in the West with the Suns. There are still a lot games left to play, and anything can happen between now and end the of regular season, but the Suns missed an opportunity to distance themselves from the Thunder while Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were out nursing injuries.

In a Western Conference that only seems to get deeper and deeper, the Suns may find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture again this season. There is still a chance to turn things around, but the necessary changes need to happen sooner rather than later.