NBA Draft 2025: Will These Dominant Freshman Scorers Translate to the League?

There’s a reason the top of most NBA Drafts are littered with high-profile freshmen. Players who star in college (or any other league) at an age younger than their competition often develop into stars. Age combined with production and functional athlete tools provides a sturdy formula for projecting NBA stars.

It’s equally important for those players to produce against the highest level of competition, notably conference opponents. We can use scoring volume and efficiency as a basic proxy for offensive production. The sample size still remains small, but to this point, there are six high-major freshmen during conference play scoring in double digits with a true shooting percentage above 60:

in conference play, there are six high major freshmen scoring in double digits with a TS above 60%: pic.twitter.com/LtidOEDKnc

— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 21, 2025

Plenty of elite college scorers, even young ones, don’t translate to the NBA. Let’s discuss each of these six star freshmen and whether or not they can translate this statistical dominance to the NBA to some extent.

Cooper Flagg

After a slower start to the season by his standards, Flagg has ramped up his offensive production against ACC opponents. He’s the second leading scorer in conference player among all high major players, only trailing Villanova’s Eric Dixon. Flagg scored 20 or more points in five of his eight conference games, including a 42-point explosion against Notre Dame.

Some have questioned Flagg’s ability to succeed as a primary initiator at the NBA level. Flagg’s conference efficiency has been somewhat inflated by his 3-point percentage, shooting 50% (14-28) from deep. He’s also scorching from inside the arc, converting an elite 61.8% of his 2-pointers. Flagg has showcased more handling and shooting diversity and he’s learning how to bully defenders with his physical tools.

It’s important to remember that Flagg just turned 18 and should be a senior in high school. His level of dominance against college players is historic to this point. He’s carrying a huge 32.5% usage rate, higher than any other player on this list. Even if Flagg needs to tighten his handle and become a more creative driver in spots, his age, production and physical tools suggest he can become an elite scoring option in the NBA one day.

Kasparas Jakucionis

Jakucionis continues to dominate with his outside shooting, flashing NBA-level off-dribble shooting traits. He’s smoking from downtown in conference play, converting 45.9% (17-37) of his 3-pointers. Jakucionis creates space off the bounce with stepbacks and side steps to get his shots off regardless of the contest.

Though Jakucionis’s shooting will regress some, he should also improve as a foul drawer. In conference play, Jakucionis has posted a 23.2% free-throw rate compared to 50.3% on the entire season. His foul-drawing talent hasn’t gone anywhere, though, and will be key for maintaining strong efficiency at the NBA level. He’s not a dynamic vertical athlete or advantage creator and may have to rely on free throws for inside-the-arc efficiency.

Wesley Yates

Yates transferred to USC after missing his entire first season at Washington due to injury. He took some time to acclimate, but Yates’ dynamic scoring talent finally bears fruit. Yates is the lowest-usage player on this list in conference play (17.3%) but he’s made the most of his chances. He’s shooting at an unsustainable clip (50%, 11-22) from deep, but he’s also efficient scoring from 2-point range (66.7%).

His limitations as a playmaker and a vertical athlete will complicate Yates’ translation to the next level. He’s an undeniably natural scorer, though, full of tricks in his bag and excellent touch in the intermediate. Yates receives barely any draft discussion but will receive more buzz if he continues scoring as he currently is.

Asa Newell

Newell’s efficiency dipped slightly from his non-conference play, largely due to his scoring at the rim. Against conference opponents, he’s converted 63% of his close 2-pointers compared to 73.7% across the whole season. As a paint-centric player, Newell must continue to score efficiently around the basket with touch.

He’s also shooting more efficiently from deep but on the lowest volume of any of the six on the list. Newell drained 5 of his 12 3-point attempts but is still shooting 31.6% from deep on the season. To stick in the NBA, Newell will need to prove that his shooting improvement is sustainable for longer stretches of time.

Tahaad Pettiford

Apart from Cooper Flagg, no other prospect on this list creates as much as Pettiford does. Despite his 32.4% usage rate, he’s maintained excellent efficiency on the back of his 3-point shooting. Pettiford is shooting 48% (12-25) from deep in conference play on a heavy diet of deep-range pull-ups. This isn’t a massive jump from his season-long numbers; he’s shooting 43.8% on his threes this season.

Pettiford’s size, standing around six feet tall, will be his major obstacle. He’s a non-factor at the rim to this point, converting 38.5% of just 13 rim attempts in conference play. It’s rare for small guards who struggle to pressure the rim to succeed in the NBA. If Pettiford can, he’ll do it with his elite off-dribble 3-point shooting.

Kon Knueppel

Across his entire high school career, Knueppel shot the ball from 3-point land as well as any player in the country. His shot rebounded during conference play, making 41.1% (23-56) of those 3-pointers after a cold shooting start. Versatile shooting paired with Knueppel’s pick-and-roll playmaking make for an intriguing offensive package.

To maintain his efficiency in the NBA, Knueppel must prove himself a more capable interior scorer and creator. He’s taken just 19 shots at the rim in conference play, only topping Pettiford in terms of rim volume. That may present obstacles for scoring efficiently in the league, but Knueppel should find success if he can provide elite 3-point shooting production. 

All stats via Bart Torvik