NBA Daily: 50 Predictions Revisited From The 2018-19 Season

August is traditionally a quieter sports month, especially as it relates to basketball news. So what better time to revisit our 50 Predictions piece from 2018-19 than right now? While we typically review our predictions in late June, we decided to wait a bit longer this season in order to have a complete picture of 2019 free agency, trades, etc.

Back in October, my fellow Insiders and I made a number of predictions about the NBA season and the surprises it had in store for us. This was my first year taking over the Predictions piece from the great Joel Brigham. Having spoken with Joel, I was aware that this process would be humbling – I didn’t realize the extent to which it would be, though.

Unfortunately, narratives and rumors permeate all of our thought processes. Thus, some of these predictions were entirely my own and some were influenced by talking heads – my colleagues included – like many of the falsehoods about Anthony Davis’ all-time great 2018-19 season. But fear not, I will be better in this regard come 2019-20.

Some of my predictions were spot on – albeit not too many – and others are laughable. Either way, please read on and enjoy everything that follows – most of which will be at my expense. And now, without further ado, here are my 50 predictions for the 2018-19 NBA season, revisited:

Award Predictions:

1. Anthony Davis will be the 2018-19 MVP – Incorrect. And I wasn’t even really that close as he didn’t even finish in the top 10. Still, I stand by this pick. He was a popular pre-season selection. Unfortunately, Giannis Antetokounmpo was the other popular pick. And he won.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo will win Defensive Player of the Year – Incorrect, but close. Antetokounmpo finished second and was a world beater in pretty much every way. So this one nearly came to fruition.
3. Zach Lavine will be named Most Improved Player – Incorrect. I really thought there was a chance entering December. But guys like Pascal Siakam, D’Angelo Russell and De’Aaron Fox did too much to separate themselves. And LaVine came back to earth. He averaged 28.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game in October and 27 points per game through the Bulls’ first 14 games. But he settled back in to more traditional performances – which are good, but not necessarily MIP-worthy.
4. Nikola Jokic will be finish in the top-five in MVP voting – Correct. Jokic had an incredible year and led the Nuggets to the second seed in the Western Conference. Jokic’s 20.1 points, 10.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game were more than enough to generate national attention.
5. Nick Nurse will win Coach of the Year on the back of a franchise best season – Incorrect. Mike Budenholzer was named Coach of the Year given an impressive campaign in which he modernized the Bucks’ offense and led them to an NBA-best 60-win season. Nurse finished ninth and led the Raptors to 58 wins and their first ever NBA title.

Other Individual Predictions:

6. Anthony Davis will lead the NBA scoring – Incorrect again. Davis finished 10th in points per game and 34^th in overall points scored.
7. For the first time since 2013-14, Blake Griffin will play in 70+ games – Correct. Griffin played in a shocking 75 games this past season – significantly more than he’s played in since 2013-14 (80).
8. Lonzo Ball will post increased scoring and three-point percentages in less minutes per game – Partially correct. Ball scored 0.3 points per game less; however, he shot better from long-range (.329 up from .304) in four minutes less per game.
9. Kristaps Porzingis returns to Knicks lineup after the All-Star break, the Knicks play above .500 with him in the lineup and they avoid the lottery – Incorrect. Instead, Porzingis didn’t play a single game in 2018-19, demanded a trade from the Knicks and now plays for the Mavericks. Do I lose points if I’m really, really wrong?
10. Three players will average 15+ rebounds – Incorrect. Only Andre Drummond averaged more than 15 rebounds per game.

Rookie Predictions:

11. Luka Doncic will be named Rookie of the Year – Correct. I understood the hype around DeAndre Ayton and Trae Young, but Doncic was too good and too experienced to overlook.
12. Trae Young will end 2018-19 in the top-three Rookie of the Year ranks with at least 16 points and 7 assists per game – Correct. In fact, Young finished second in ROY voting and averaged 19.1 points and 8.1 assists per game.
13. Alonzo Trier will average more points per game than Kevin Knox – Incorrect. Knox averaged 12.8 points per game versus Trier’s 10.9; but the fact remains that Trier surprised pretty much everyone by carving out a role in the NBA.

Trade Predictions:

14. Jimmy Butler will be traded before the All-Star break – Correct. Thankfully, I neglected to name a team to which he would be traded.
15. Kevin Love will not be traded – Correct. This was 50-50 for me. I simply didn’t see a team willing to take on Love’s deal with the requisite cap space and need.
16. Tristan Thompson will not be traded either – Correct.
17. George Hill and Kyle Korver will be traded – Correct on both. They were the obvious guys for the Cavs to move, both of whom add significant value without being overly ball dominant.
18. Terry Rozier is traded before the deadline – Incorrect. I couldn’t imagine a world in which the Celtics let an asset walk for nothing. This one should have happened.
19. Damian Lillard to the Lakers rumors will persist, but a deal will not be made – Correct. With the luxury of hindsight, this one seems pretty obvious.

Team Predictions:

20. The Raptors will win at least 60 games and finish first in the East – Technically incorrect. I should have just predicted that they would win the NBA Championship.
21. Utah will also finish 2018-19 with 60+ wins – Incorrect. In my defense, my objectivity ceased to exist after chatting with fellow Insider Jordan Hicks, who spoke so highly of his hometown team.
22. The Warriors will also win 60 games and three teams will finish with 60 wins – Incorrect. Only one team (Bucks) finished the season with 60 wins. And to be fair, three teams haven’t finished with 60 or more wins in the same season since 2008-09.
23. The Nuggets will win 55 games – So close, but incorrect. Denver ended with 54 wins, which marks a huge leap for the franchise. Note: I will make this prediction again in October.
24. The 76ers finish in the bottom five in three-point shooting – Incorrect. I clearly failed to examine rosters around the league.
25. The Bucks will finish in the top five in three-point attempts – Correct. Lots of credit here to Coach Budenholzer, who modernized an offense that launched the second-most three-pointers in the league – up from 25^thoverall in 2017-18.
26. The Lakers will fail to make the playoffs – Correct. And this was a bold pick last October, I might add. LeBron James didn’t have enough help. And still, I was worried for a good part of the season. If James hadn’t been hurt on Christmas Day and maintained his output (27.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game), I probably would have been wrong here, too. He’s still that good.
27. The Pelicans will qualify for the playoffs thanks to Anthony Davis – LOL. Incorrect.
28. The Hawks will end the season with the worst record in the league – Incorrect. It’s always hard to predict the order at the bottom of the league. But the Hawks were a pleasant surprise last season, playing quite well after the All-Star break.

Playoff Predictions:

29. The Bucks advance past the first-round – Correct. They had the MVP and the Coach of the Year.
30. The Wizards do not earn a top-four seed in the East – Correct. No one saw John Wall’s injuries on the horizon, though.
31. And the Wizards get eliminated in the first-round – Incorrect, because they didn’t make the playoffs at all.
32. The Pistons enter the playoffs as a top-four seed – Incorrect again.
33. And the Pistons advance past the first-round – Incorrect yet again. I was supremely confident in Blake Griffin, who played very well. But he didn’t have enough support, and the East was even better than expected.

Coaching Predictions:

34. Tom Thibodeau is fired shortly after the Timberwolves move on from Butler – Correct
35. Scott Brooks is not fired during the season – Correct. But had I known how bad it would get in Washington, I might have predicted otherwise.
36. Brooks is let go before June 1 following a first-round playoff elimination – Incorrect on two fronts. First of all, the Wizards didn’t qualify for the playoffs. But more importantly, Brooks is still their head coach – and I’m a little surprised by this. The Wizards moved on from general manager Ernie Grunfeld. And their star player is out for probably the entire 2018-19 season. Brooks enters 2019-20 on the hot seat. I don’t see Washington sticking with him if the team decides to trade Bradley Beal. So if that happens, look out.

Miscellaneous Predictions:

37. The league-wide average will exceed 110 points per game (2017-18 average was 106.3) – Correct. The average score per game per team actually eclipsed 111 points.
38. There will be a 10 percent increase in fouls per game due to rule changes regarding how freedom of motion fouls are called – Incorrect. The league average increased from 19.9 fouls per game to 20.9 – an increase of just over 5 percent.
39. There will be fewer teams with 25 or less wins than there was last season in part because of the revised NBA Draft Lottery – Technically there was the same number of teams with fewer than 25 wins; however, there were more teams with 25 or fewer wins. So, Correct. And the effect of the revised draft lottery becomes even more evident when we expand the scope: nine teams had fewer than 30 wins in 2017-18, compared to only five in 2018-19.
40. There will be at least five first-time All-Stars – Correct, but just barely so. There were exactly five first-time All-Stars this past season: Nikola Jokic, Khris Middleton, D’Angelo Russell, Ben Simmons and Nikola Vucevic.

Insiders Predictions:

Steve Kyler (@stevekylerNBA)

41. The Warriors will not win the most games in the league – Correct

Steve Kyler (@stevekylerNBA)

42. Eight teams will finish at .500 or one game below – Incorrect. Only one team finished with a 41-41 record and no teams ended the season with 40 wins.

Matt John (@MattJohnNBA)

43. Kawhi Leonard re-signs with Toronto on a 1+1 – Incorrect

David Yapkowitz (@David_Yapkowitz)

44. The Nuggets will enter the playoffs as a top-four seed – Correct

Shane Rhodes (@Shane_Rhodes1)

45. The 76ers will enter the playoffs without securing a top-four seed – Incorrect

Spencer Davies (@SpinDavies)

46. Tristan Thompson will average a double-double for the first time in his career – Correct

Lang Greene (@LangGreene)

47. Carmelo Anthony will end the season with less than 13 points per game and worse than 40 percent shooting from the field – Incorrect on both counts. Anthony averaged 13.4 points per game on 40.5 percent shooting; however, he only played in 10 games.

Benny Nadeau (@Ben_Nadeau)

48. Allen Crabbe will end the season in the top 10 for three-pointers made – Incorrect. Wrong Net, Ben. D’Angelo Russell finished ninth with 234.

Jordan Hicks (@JordanHicksNBA)

49. Joe Ingles will lead the league in three-point percentage – Incorrect. In fact, Ingles finished 31st in three-point percentage with a 39.1 percent clip – which is worse than both of the previous two seasons.

Jordan Hicks (@JordanHicksNBA)

50. Derrick Favors will be traded before the deadline – Incorrect, but fake bonus points because Favors starts the season with New Orleans after being traded for two second-round picks at the start of free agency.

Some of my predictions were terrible, and others were borderline prophetic. We will be back soon to see if the Basketball Insiders team and I can do better than we did last October.

For those of you keeping score, I got 19 correct and 21 incorrect, and my fellow Insiders had four correct and six incorrect. I sense major improvements on the horizon..