NBA AM: Thunder Are Daring To Be Great

Dare To be Great:  If things continue on course, University of Florida head coach Billy Donovan will be named the next head coach of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The two sides are said to be in advanced talks that could yield a formal announcement as early as today and the Thunder will close their search for a new head coach without a lot of fanfare.

So what does this really mean for the Thunder?

First and foremost, it’s worth repeating that former head coach Scott Brooks was not fired because of the results of this past season. There were many parts to the eventual decision, the biggest being it was time to re-up Brooks on a new deal. There was also a sense around the team’s upper management that things had become somewhat stale – that many of the veteran players were not being held as accountable to the process as maybe they should have been, and that the dynamic between Brooks and general manager Sam Presti had changed a lot over the years.

League sources often joked that Brooks was Presti’s guy because he’d allow Presti to have a huge amount of input into the entire process, much more input than almost any other coach would allow. As Brooks gained more and more comfort in his role, his willingness to be steered, in many ways, diminished.

With Donovan on tap as the next guy, there is a sense that Presti feels a better bond and connection with his long-time friend and that Donovan possess some characteristics that Brooks does not. Donovan is a more “in your face” kind of coach and while that may not translate as well in the NBA as it does in college, there is a sense that Donovan is more willing to be “on the team” in terms of overall vision and process and will be more aggressive with his players.

The burning question is what does this mean for the Thunder roster?

Not much in the short term. Donovan was chosen because he believes in the ability of the current core guys and there is a sense that Presti feels like there is another level his group can play at, hence the decision to make a change.

Presti and the Thunder management have not consulted with their players, mainly because those players have given their endorsement to Presti on the decision making process, whatever it ends up being.

Word is that Donovan, prior to accepting a deal, wants to have a conversation with his new core players to make sure they are all working from the same script. While that sounds like a hurdle, sources close to the process say it’s simply one of several steps in making a deal and Donovan talking with the Thunder players is not at all uncommon especially as a deal gets closer, a lot of coaches make that request.

As for the long-term outlook on the roster, there has been an understanding that the future of Kevin Durant next summer and Russell Westbrook the summer after that will be directly connected with how the team does this upcoming season, hence the urgency to make a change.

The belief around the league is that if the Thunder are a 55-60 win team next year and playing deep into the postseason, they have a real shot at retaining Durant long-term and that could lead to a new long-term deal with Westbrook as well. If the Thunder endures another sub-50 win season or an early exit in the postseason, all bets are off on Durant.

If things stay the course, Donovan is likely going to be named the next Thunder head coach and while that may have long-term ramifications, it also gives the Thunder something to sell its fans on if their stars decide to explore options so this is a two-part deal. Presti’s hope is that they’ll win and win big and keep everything together. But if things do go south, at least they have a known commodity in Donovan to rebuild around.

This hire may not be the sexiest of coaching possibilities, but it does serve dual roles and it’s clear that the Thunder are hoping for the best but also seem to be planning for the worst.

Tick Tock:  As the Portland Trail Blazers season has come to an end, so begins an offseason with lots of questions – the biggest being about the future of big man LaMarcus Aldridge.

All season long, both sides have said the rights things – that Aldridge is committed to the team and wants to stay long-term. However, as the season comes to crushing end, not everyone is as optimistic about a new deal today as maybe they were when training camps opened.

Aldridge is heading into unrestricted free agency and while the Blazers can offer a fifth contract year and slightly higher annual raises in a new deal, agents representing players in similar situations have called the extra year and extra raise money so nominal to the process, that it’s hard to call that a real advantage especially given Aldridge’s stature in the NBA and where the NBA economy is headed.

As our own Eric Pincus points out, the huge spike in the salary cap in 2016 and could alter the thought process for a number of free agent players and that could play in Portland’s favor a lot more than it seems.

In Aldridge’s case, even taking a new one-year deal and preserving his Bird Rights for the new cap bump in 2016 could yield a monster payday, given his NBA experience.

As things project today, a new maximum one-year deal with the Blazers would come in at $18.8 million versus a new five-year deal at $108 million. If Aldridge rolls the dice on a one-year deal and returns to free agency in 2016, his next deal could balloon to $168 million on a five-year deal.

If he were to follow the same scenario of a one-year deal with a new team and hitting free agency again in July of 2016, the numbers change dramatically as a one-year deal at $18.8 million then allows for a four-year, $124 million contract in 2016.

Monetarily the Blazers could still win out on Aldridge because of his Bird Rights and his time in the league.

Given the two scenarios above, Portland could offer a combination of contracts that gets Aldridge to $186.8 million over the span of the next six years – likely the tail end of his career.

While the fifth year and the annual raises don’t seem like much in new long-term deal, if Aldridge is willing to roll the dice on injuries, he could structure a new Blazers deal to put $44 million more in his pocket if he decides to stay.

That’s not an insignificant number, especially if the Blazers are willing to play ball on the notion of a one-year deal this season.

It’s important to point out that the Blazer cannot offer a one plus five kind of structure as that would be a cap violation, but it’s not out of the question for Aldridge’s agent to map out what they want to do in terms of a single year deal now and a new contract under the new cap.

It would be a risk for all sides, but to maximize the money, it might be worth the risk especially if it keeps Aldridge in Portland for the balance of his career.

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @AlexKennedyNBA, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @SusanBible @TommyBeer, @JabariDavisNBA , @MokeHamilton , @JCameratoNBA, @iamdpick, @jblancartenba, @CodyTaylorNBAand @YannisNBA.