NBA AM: The NBA Draft Is Far From Perfect

Shane Larkin discusses this frustrating season with the New York Knicks, where to go from here and much more.

Hindsight Is a Killer: The funny thing about the NBA Draft process is that even with as much time as executives spend on looking at players, history shows that the process is anything but precise. As much as teams think they know, the miss rate on the draft is really high.

As the 2015 NBA season comes to a close in just a few days, many teams will shift their focus full-time to the NBA draft and workouts and player evaluations will ramp up.

Here is a look back at the last six NBA Draft first rounds. For many teams, the draft hasn’t been nearly as kind as it has been to others.

A quick review of the numbers – there were 180 players drafted over the past six years. Of those 180, 22 of them played in the NBA at one point but are now out of the league altogether (and there are four others who have not yet played in the NBA, due to being stashed overseas or in the D-League). The 2012 draft class had four players wash out, the 2011 class had five, 2010 had six and 2009 had seven. That means 12.2 percent of players selected in the first round since 2009 are no longer in the NBA.

On the surface that doesn’t seem like a huge percentage; however, when you consider many washed out after just a few years in the league, it illustrates how unpredictable the draft process can be.

NBA teams can begin working out collegiate seniors as soon as their respective NBA seasons ends, but they must wait until after the April 26 Early Entry Deadline to work out underclassmen. The 2015 NBA Draft Combine is set for May 12-May 16 in Chicago with the 2015 NBA Draft set for June 25 in New York.

No Deals And No Guarantees:  The New York Daily News’ Frank Isola dropped a nugget on Saturday suggesting that Detroit Pistons big man Greg Monroe, who is a pending unrestricted free agent, is all but assured to sign with the New York Knicks this summer using the quoted phrase: “about as close to a done deal as you can get.”

Admittedly, Isola was quoting an unnamed league source, who is basically saying what many have believed to be true for some time, that Monroe was one of the prime targets for the Knicks in July.

Monroe was asked about the story and the idea that it was already decided and he took a hard line stance saying he hadn’t decided anything yet.

“It’s a shame that people just write stuff that’s not factual at all, but we as players have to come in here and answer for it when we have absolutely nothing to do with it,” Monroe said to Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press. “I guess he’s doing his job. That’s what you guys do. You write it’s a done deal then they must have another guy named Greg Monroe somewhere around there I don’t know about because I haven’t agreed to anything.”

“I haven’t discussed anything with anybody,” Monroe added. “My agent hasn’t discussed anything with anyone. It’s the stuff I’ve been telling you guys all year is exactly what I’ve been doing. I’ve been focused on this season and that’s going to be it.”

Pistons head coach and team president Stan Van Gundy was asked about the notion of losing his free agent this summer, and Van Gundy stayed true to his message that the Pistons planned to re-sign the big man this summer.

“We’re going to try to keep Greg,” Van Gundy said. “There’s no question about that. Obviously Greg has a lot to say with that so we’ll just see where it goes.”

Monroe opted to take the Piston’s qualifying offer last summer, which allows him to become an unrestricted free agent in July and is considered the most obtainable free agent of the bunch.

In addition to the Knicks, Monroe has been linked to the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics, and he is expected to garner a lot of attention on July 1.

Is Change Coming To The Magic?:  The Orlando Magic are likely going to see a lot of roster change this summer, mainly because they have some players heading into free agency and lot of guys with team option years.

Magic forwards Tobias Harris and Kyle O’Quinn lead the way as potential restricted free agents; both have come to accept that their futures may not be with the Magic, with O’Quinn falling out of the rotation in a major way in the final month of the season and Harris expecting to command a sizable new contract this summer.

The Magic have several players with team options or non-guaranteed contracts; Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour are unlikely to return, while younger guys like big man Dewayne Dedmon and second-round pick Devyn Marble are more likely. Marble suffered a detached retina mid-season, so his status is very much up in the air.

The Magic also have to decide if last season’s free agent prize, Channing Frye, makes sense going forward. The Magic inked Frye to a four-year, $32 million deal that declines in value each year, but Frye posted a sub-par season by even his own standards as the Magic struggled to find a place in the rotation for him.

Frye says he wants to return next season, but understands he may not be the fit the Magic had hoped when they signed him.

“It’s been a tough year, but it’s been an awesome year because I’ve grown, I think, a lot more in being patient, not just assuming guys know certain things, being able to communicate better,” Frye said to Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. “I hope to be back here, and I really do enjoy my time here. I love these guys. No matter who’s here, who’s not and who’s coaching or who’s not, I feel like we’re going to go in the right direction.

“There are times where I was happy with how I played and there are times when I wasn’t. I think for me I like the consistency in who I am as a person. Of course, I’m going to get upset and frustrated about certain things. But overall I think who I am as a person has stayed pretty solid. I’ve tried to be as much as who I am with this team. I’m getting used to playing a little bit slower, playing at a different pace with different guys.”

This looks to be a big offseason for the Magic, as they not only are looking at the potential for another high-level draft pick, but they will also likely be hiring a new head coach.

Magic GM Rob Hennigan told season ticket holders on a call recently that the team would retain the restricted Harris “no matter what” – however that news was met with skepticism by sources close to Harris, who saw the comment not as an assurance of a new deal, but rather a means to possibly scare away would-be free agent suitors.

The Magic have a few players who are expected to be traded, such as forward Maurice Harkless and big man Andrew Nicholson. Both were shopped fairly aggressively around the trade deadline, and both are expected to be moved around the NBA Draft.

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