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Joel Embiid is projected to win MVP, per Rolling Player Ratings

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James Foglio
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James Foglio Sports Editor

James is a Basketball Insiders contributor. He earned his bachelor's degree in English and Creative Writing from Southern New Hampshire University. James enjoys watching sports and helping gamblers win money.

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Updated07 Apr 2023

76ers Joel Embiid is projected to win MVP, per Rolling Player Ratings

Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers is projected to win this season’s MVP award, according to Rolling Player Ratings. While this system undervalues defensive performances, it prioritizes and measures most NBA statistics, including points, rebounds, assists, and turnovers. Check out the RPR rankings below.

Rolling Player Ratings for MVP: Joel Embiid is the favorite

According to multiple NBA betting sites, Joel Embiid is the betting favorite to win MVP. The six-time All-Star tops the RPR list with a 16.44 score. Based on the last 10 seasons, a first-place RPR MVP score corresponded to 0.8372 MVP award shares. The available data is featured below.

RPR Placement Average MVP Award Shares Average RPR MVP
1.)  0.8372 18.1433
2.)  0.6782 16.7419
3.)  0.2461 15.6885
4.)  0.166 14.3369
5.)  0.1253 14.4577
6.)  0.2228 14.7262
7.)  0.1272 12.8853
8.)  0.0629 13.2947
9.)  0.0524 12.9796
10.)  0.006 12.5977
  • Table retrieved from Sports Math Network

Ranking below Joel Embiid is Nikola Jokic (15.93), followed by Luka Doncic (15.3), Giannis Antetokounmpo (14.4), and Jayson Tatum (14.09). Since Joker was absent in the Denver Nuggets’ 119-115 loss to the Phoenix Suns on Thursday, Embiid still has the best odds of winning MVP for dominating in more games.

Rolling Player Ratings are accurate. Through 66 starts, Embiid is averaging career highs of 33.1 points, 34.6 minutes, and 11 field goals per game. Along with logging 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.7 blocks, the 76ers center is shooting a career-best 54.8% from the field and 33% beyond the arc.

Embiid missed last Monday’s MVP matchup against Jokic. Therefore, some voters might pick Jokic over the four-time All-NBA member for missing such an important game that late into the season. However, the 76ers center did drop 47 points on Denver in the first meeting of the season series on Jan. 28.

More importantly, Joel Embiid ended this season on a high note. In Philadelphia’s 103-101 win over the Boston Celtics, the seventh-year veteran amassed 52 points, 13 boards, six assists, and two blocks in 39 minutes. Plus, he shot 20-of-25 (80%) from the floor and 12-of-13 (92.3%) at the foul line.

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