How Staying in School Damages Top NBA Prospects

Over the years in any sport, a number of misconceptions arise in the prevailing consciousness. Many are due simply to changing tactics and schemes within a given game, or rule alterations that impact play in ways it takes the public time to catch up with. Some are the result of a lack of information, and further still are mostly due to something of an anecdotal syndrome – that is, a person or group of people perceived as knowledgeable at some point in time made a generalization on a particular subject that stuck, no matter how antiquated it eventually became. Phrases such as the team with the best player always wins a seven-game series or never steal a base with two outs, plus many others of their ilk, are little more than outdated generalizations that fail to adequately incorporate all the relevant context, but are often accepted into a sport’s lexicon simply because they’ve been repeated so often.

Highly-rated college players who choose to stay another year at school are a hot-button issue at this time of year as many declare or choose not to do so, but unfortunately, much of the rhetoric here falls firmly within this latter category. There seems to be a prevailing sentiment that a high percentage of guys, even those projected to fall in or around the lottery, would benefit more from spending one more year in school. This simply is very rarely the case.

One quick disclaimer first: The theme here is monetary earning power, which, like it or not, remains the driving factor in the majority of decisions most of us make. That’s the construct under which we’re discussing the logic behind staying or not staying in school – if a guy simply assesses his options, decides his monetary situation is comfortable enough, and chooses to prioritize things like his education and his college teammates over entering the NBA as early as possible, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with this. One other item worth noting is that we’re discussing projected first-round picks, particularly those anticipated to at least be considered in the lottery in the year in question; the arithmetic becomes muddier when discussing fringe guys.

As far as earning power goes for these types of players, the “he should stay” case is almost exclusively a very, very tough one to make. It starts, of course, with the dollars issue. There are simply very few cases where a player will improve his stock enough that sacrificing a full year at a seven-figure salary is a viable move, especially because in the long run, this slices a year off the back end of his career when he’s potentially earning big veteran money.

There are exceptions here and there, of course – a guy like Kristaps Porzingis this season, for instance, had so little name recognition around draft time last year (he was projected as a late first-rounder on most boards, and may have gauged GM interest even lower through his representatives) that he waited an extra year, and has done so much in that time that he’s now nearly a sure-thing lottery pick. But these instances are few and far between, and are accompanied by at least an equivalent number (and likely a larger one) of guys like Harrison Barnes or Marcus Smart, who sacrificed a year as possible top-five picks and ended up sliding back, damaging their career earning power significantly in the process. And none of this even covers the non-zero chance of an injury occurring, which would obviously be the worst-case scenario.

The common counter to this simple theme is the idea that college play will help the NBA preparedness of many guys who are somewhat arbitrarily labeled “not ready yet,” but this breaks down quickly upon a closer look. Maturity off the court is often a go-to area here; it’s a typical assumption that many 19-year-olds lack the perspective and worldview to become professional athletes and deal with all the accompanying stress while maintaining positive value for an NBA team.

And in a vacuum, this is true – many 19 and 20-year-olds indeed are not fully prepared for the rigors of an NBA life. Where perception diverges from logic, however, is in the idea that another year at school somehow better prepares a given player for their upcoming transition than simply experiencing the change itself.

With a little thought, the very theme seems quite silly. If we know the guy in question will simply enter the draft a year later, it requires the assumption that this extra year in school will do more (significantly more, if we also account for the lost income) for his NBA readiness than actually playing in an NBA environment – but how could this ever be the case? The NBA contains no classes to attend, no grades to achieve, no professors to communicate with. Guys are expected to learn in the big leagues, but only about basketball and how they can improve, areas that are already fully expected of them in college on top of these other responsibilities. Social life while at school is completely different from that in the NBA, as well. The entire experience is drastically unlike that of the pros, and in every one of these instances, there are no college courses or tutorials that prepare a guy for any of this. They just have to experience it.

This doesn’t even get into the physical differences, which might be an even larger factor. The travel in a given college program doesn’t hold a candle to that of any NBA team. Schedules in general are completely different, from workouts to practices to the frequency and overall number of games. Training staffs and the general devotion to a given player’s body are just not in the same universe; even if a guy is maniacally devoted to his fitness as a college student, his resources with which to further his cause here simply don’t compare.

The on-court experience is another area that’s entirely divergent. Many of the guys we’re talking about here have spent much of their lives, including at the college level, as dominant players. They’re often men among boys, future NBA All-Star material playing with and against guys who, in the majority of cases, will do things other than play basketball for their careers.

How exactly does this experience better prepare a guy for the NBA, where they will no longer have many of these same advantages? How would a guy like Karl-Anthony Towns (he’s not in this discussion, of course, but just as a vague example) benefit from dunking all over a bunch of 6’7 centers for another year over moving to the next level where he belongs and starting his experience against players who are actually his physical peers?

Even the non-physical elements of the on-court game are an entirely different animal. Schemes and tactics are far more complex in the NBA, and despite bandying by some about the advanced level of certain college systems, none really approaches the level of specificity and attention to detail found in all 30 NBA playbooks.

And guess what else? The rules are different! A 35-second shot-clock, shorter three-point line, different free-throw bonus rules, different timeout guidelines and many others… precisely how do all these differences better prepare a given player for the pro game? Truthfully, it’s the exact opposite.

Let’s put this all together for a brief example, in the form of the guy around whom a Twitter conversation influenced the writing of this piece: Utah’s Jakob Poeltl. The 7’0 Austrian center has flown up draft boards this year, and currently sits 11th on DraftExpress, 17th on Basketball Insiders’ latest mock, 17th on ESPN’s Chad Ford’s Big Board and 10th in Layne Vashro’s predictive output model (one that, by nearly any cumulative statistical measurement, has significantly outperformed actual NBA GMs over the last couple decades).

Because of his relative inexperience and young age (19 until just before the NBA season begins next year), Poeltl has received many of the above-noted arguments that he should remain in school. He isn’t ready. He’s too raw. His physical profile isn’t filled out enough. He hasn’t learned enough.

In reality, though, a couple of these areas actually indicate the opposite decision as the correct one for Poeltl. His rawness is a big part of what makes him so appealing at the NBA level, the knowledge of what he could one day become if he scrapes his physical ceiling. What happens, for instance, if he stays at school another year, takes on a bigger role on both ends and disappoints heavily, showcasing less ability to learn and develop skills than many expected? Or, worse, gets injured? Remember, a player’s draft slot impacts not only his rookie-year paycheck, but potentially his entire career’s salary trajectory – a drop from his projected mid-first-round tier into the late first or early second will have an absolutely massive effect on his wallet.

Meanwhile, the other side of this coin offers so much less potential upside. Guys in Poeltl’s range aren’t can’t-miss blue-chippers despite how impressive they often are, and the realistic chances that he improves his slot enough in a single college season to make up for a lost year of income are just so, so low. This guy isn’t going to be a top-three pick next year even if he makes big strides; the next crop of freshman super-duper stars will still almost certainly occupy this space. So are all the potential downsides listed above worth it simply for a shot at moving up five or six places, an outcome that’s far from guaranteed? It’s difficult to argue as much.

Again, there are exceptions to many of these various themes. Just the right context in a certain situation might lend itself to a particular guy making the decision to stay and have it be the right one. A guy like Porzingis with a truly legitimate shot at moving from the late teens (or worse) up into the high lottery has a real case, though even guys in his category are something of a different exercise, as he’s not in a college program and is, indeed, playing professionally and being paid to do so already. Cases like these within major college programs are so incredibly rare.

If a guy wants to spend more time with his college teammates and friends, and maybe achieve glory at that level first, sign him up. If he wants to further his education for his own reasons, perhaps ensuring his success after basketball, no one should ever tell him no. Shoot, if a guy goes to school close to home and wants to stay near family another year, that’s just fine. But if we’re talking raw earning power – and in this sometimes-cruel world, we almost exclusively are – there’s simply no debate. Enter the draft and hit the pros.