Game 1 Preview: Warriors vs. Cavaliers

#1 – Golden State Warriors

This may be the most matchup- and adjustment-centric series of the entire 2015 postseason between two teams with significant mismatches in their favor in one place or another. I covered many of these last week, and every game of the series will be marked in some manner by the way both teams and coaches progress here.

Within Game 1 itself, before that progression begins in earnest, there will be other less nuanced factors that should play a big role. One for the Warriors is the health status of Klay Thompson, who seems likely to play Thursday but may do so with lingering concussion effects and could be below 100 percent. A struggling Thompson wouldn’t doom the Dubs by any stretch (they’ve survived at points already this postseason while he’s been somewhat off his game), but it might open the door a little wider for the Cavs to shake up the series by stealing Game 1.

Trained eyes will also be on Draymond Green, who has been his usual spectacular self defensively but has struggled offensively under the radar much of the playoffs thus far. The Cavs may aggressively siphon preferred looks away from Golden State’s scorers, or at least attempt to do so, and if Green can rediscover some of his all-around offensive game for this series, it could be over quickly.

The Warriors have the upper hand talent-wise, but will need to be ready out of the gate. LeBron James has crushed the swagger of a rolling playoff team on many occasions, and a convincing Golden State win to open the series would go a long way toward ensuring that doesn’t happen here.

#2 – Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron’s teams have had a curious historical tendency to start slowly in many series openers, something that absolutely cannot be the case in this series. The Warriors haven’t even approached losing four of six games all season, and it seems highly unlikely they’d start now.

They could set the tone for the series with a strong first quarter and first half, proof that they’re here to play and not be rolled over like basically everyone else in Golden State’s path. James in particular can show us whether a week off has allowed him time to rediscover his jumper, which he’ll almost certainly need to be hitting at a much higher rate than the rest of this postseason for the Cavs to have a puncher’s chance.

Kyrie Irving can also do a lot for the hopes of title-starved Clevelanders if he appears at or close to 100 percent, though reports this week make this seem unlikely. A humming Kyrie could take just enough burden away from LeBron to allow him to flex his full dominance, and would open up another badly-needed avenue for a simplistic offense that may be swallowed up at times by the Warriors’ fantastic team scheme.

It’s far from analytical or scientific, but doubts in the minds of a supremely confident Warriors team might be the best chance the Cavs have. LeBron knows it and should have fire from the start, and if his teammates can join him here and get some shots to fall, the general tone of the series could change slightly.

Who Wins Game 1?

The Warriors. The Cavs are massive underdogs for a reason, and the Warriors are basically unbeatable at home.