Dallas Mavericks 2018-19 NBA Season Preview

After spending the last two years rebuilding, Dallas came up as one of the biggest winners of the 2018 off-season. They did this primarily by making two moves. First was trading the fifth overall pick in the 2018 draft (Trae Young) along with a 2019 first-rounder for European sensation Luka Doncic, a prospect who many believe could be the best player in what was believed to be a very loaded draft. The second was signing big-time center DeAndre Jordan, a walking double-double still very much in his prime.

By adding these two, Dallas once again has playoff ambitions while also building a good future to go off of with Doncic and Dennis Smith Jr. Along with those two, Dallas brought back plenty of familiar faces in free agency, including Dirk, Salah Mejri, and even Devin Harris just months after trading him to Denver. Some of the players they lost included Doug McDermott, Yogi Ferrell, Seth Curry, and Nerlens Noel. However, the impact of losing them does not come anywhere close to the potential impact Jordan and Doncic could have on the team.

The one fly in the ointment is that as good as the Mavericks should be this season, they still play in a Western Conference that has many teams hoping to make the playoffs. No matter how Dallas’ season turns out, it’s very admirable of them to go down swinging as the Dirk Nowitzki era comes to a close. That being said, let’s take a look at what the Dallas Mavericks could look like this season.

FIVE GUYS THINK…

Will this finally be the year of the swan song for Dirk Nowitzki? After what seems like several straight seasons that could be his last, the legendary German forward will indeed be back for another year. True to form, the Mavericks have continued to toe the line between rebuilding and competing with Dirk still in the league, and their 2018 offseason was much of the same. While they obtained another major core piece for the future in a big draft day trade for Luka Doncic, they also went out and signed DeAndre Jordan for a mammoth one-year deal in the hopes of competing out West once more. If Doncic’s game translates to the NBA right away and second-year point man Dennis Smith Jr. has a leap or two in him, this team could sneak up on a few people and threaten for the final couple playoff spots. More likely, though, is gradual development from the youngsters, some fun games, but another lottery finish for the Mavs.

5th Place – Southwest Division

-Ben Dowsett

Following a dismal year in the Big D, all eyes are on the Mavericks to make a quick turnaround. The hype train for Luka Doncic is picking up speed with each day, as the Slovenian sensation looks to find his niche alongside Dennis Smith Jr. and company. Harrison Barnes’ confidence has continued to grow at the power forward position. Mark Cuban and general manager Donnie Nelson lured DeAndre Jordan to Dallas to be the team’s interior presence on both ends, as well as a rim runner in transition. Considering their division and that this is the first time we’ll see some of these guys play together, though, it’s tough to say they will get out of the basement of the Southwest.

5th Place – Southwest Division

– Spencer Davies

Dallas got the best of both worlds this summer. Mark Cuban and co. want Dirk Nowitzki’s last year(s) in the NBA to be meaningful while also wanting to build a promising future. Trading for Luka Doncic and signing DeAndre Jordan did just that. With them aboard, Rick Carlisle has more malleable talent to work with. Jordan’s the first rim protector/elite rebounder the Mavericks have had since Tyson Chandler, and Doncic could potentially be Dirk’s heir. Add them to Dallas’ already astute roster, and the postseason is in their sights again. At this point, that’s all they can ask for as Nowitzki’s retirement nears.

4th Place – Southwest Division

– Matt John

The Mavericks have kept no secret of their desire to completely rebuild and after two passes through the draft, they have collected two impressive first-round talents that should line up with some the middle tier players they have nabbed during the rebuild. Its unlikely the Mavericks jump into the playoff discussion in the West without one of those guys becoming an All-Star level guy this season, but the Mavericks have a great foundation to build from and that should be overlooked. They may not be in the postseason but they will be significantly better this year.

4th Place – Southwest Division

– Steve Kyler

The Dallas Mavericks have at least one more season with Dirk Nowitzki and clearly want to make the most of it. Dallas traded for the rights to Luka Doncic, who projects to be a capable contributor as early as this season. The Mavericks also signed DeAndre Jordan to a large one-year deal. With an interesting mix of veterans and talented youngsters, the Mavericks have a shot of competing for a playoff seed if everything breaks right this season. If Dennis Smith Jr. takes a significant step forward in his development and finds some chemistry with Doncic, Dallas’ offense could be surprisingly potent this season. This is especially true if Jordan meshes quickly and becomes a consistent lob threat for Smith Jr. and Doncic.

5th Place – Southwest Division

– Jesse Blancarte

TOP OF THE LIST

Top Offensive Player: Harrison Barnes

It was difficult to choose between Barnes and Dennis Smith Jr. here. Smith had quite the electric rookie campaign last season, and he could very well take this label away from Barnes by season’s end. For now, the reason why Barnes gets the nod is his efficiency. On 15.7 attempts a game, Barnes averaged a team-high 18.9 points a game on 44.5 percent shooting from the field and 35.7 percent from distance. Compared to Smith who, on only one less attempt a game on average, shot 39 percent from the field and 31 percent from distance.

Smith has the higher ceiling than Barnes at this point, but until he proves to be a reliable shooter, Barnes gets the nod as he is the Mavericks’ most proven scorer. It feels so sleazy to say that because for the last 15-plus years, it was undeniable that Dirk fit this label.

Top Defensive Player: DeAndre Jordan

This would seem obvious. Dallas’ defense was slightly below league average – 17th in defensive rating (109.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) – so adding someone with the resume that DeAndre Jordan has should give them a boost. However, a closer look at some of Jordan’s stats could say otherwise. Jordan averaged 0.9 blocks a game, his lowest average since his second year in the league when he was playing half as many minutes. His Defensive Real Plus-Minus was only slightly better than average at 1.32, and the Clippers’ defense was 3.4 points per 100 possessions better when he was off the court.

So why pick him as the top defensive player? Rick Carlisle. Remember that when the Mavericks acquired Tyson Chandler in 2011, his value was pretty low. Hence why they got him for peanuts. When Carlisle was done with him, Chandler got a four-year, $58 million contract the following summer. If there’s anyone who can get Jordan back to his NBA All-Defensive 1st team form, it’s Carlisle.

Top Playmaker: Jose Juan Barea

Surprised? A fair argument could be made for Luka Doncic or Smith. But, until we see how Doncic does at the NBA level and until we see how much Smith improves his playmaking, the team’s top playmaker currently is JJ Barea. Barea is and always has been the glue since donning the Mavericks’ uniform. In just 23.2 minutes, Barea led the team with 6.2 assists a game last year. Better yet, Dallas’s offensive rating was 4.8 points per 100 possessions better when Barea was on the court, which also was a team-best for all players who stayed on the team for the entire season.

By next year, Doncic or Smith will probably supplant Barea in this category, but for the time being, let’s appreciate that Barea continues to be one of the league’s premier bench players even at 34.

Top Clutch Player: Harrison Barnes

Take note that Dallas was not exactly great in the clutch last season. In games decided by five points or less, they only won five of 23 games. In the 41 games that were classified as clutch by NBA.com, Barnes’ net rating was -34.3.

Yikes.

Since Barnes is the team’s most proven scorer at the moment, he currently takes the mantle as its top clutch player. As bad as Dallas was in close games, Barnes averaged 2.2 points in 3.5 minutes on 43 percent shooting from the field in games that were classified as clutch last season. It’s fair to mention that he had that nice buzzer beater against Memphis last season. He’s not ideal, but he’s somebody.

The Unheralded Player: Dwight Powell

Originally a throw-in when the Rajon Rondo trade was completed, Powell has slowly worked his way into becoming a solid rotation player for Dallas as a rim-running energy big. His traditional statistics from this season speak for themselves: 8.5 points, 5.6 rebounds on 59 percent shooting including 33 percent from three-point land were all career-highs. However, it’s the advanced metrics that prove how valuable this guy is.

Dallas was overall +5.6 in overall net rating with Powell on the floor, with their offensive rating being +3.2 on offense and their defensive rating being +2.4. Powell had a Real Plus-Minus of 2.43, good for ninth among centers, and totaled 5.82 win shares, good for fifteenth among centers. Now that he’s Dallas’ third/fourth big, Powell’s services should serve the Mavericks very well in their playoff hopes.

Best New Addition: DeAndre Jordan

Long-term, Dallas’ best new addition will probably wind up being Doncic. Presently, DeAndre Jordan will be the more integral part of Dallas’ success. There’s already been plenty said about what Jordan could do for the Mavericks defensively, but the one area where Jordan is going to help the most this season will be on the boards.

Jordan’s blocks may have taken a hit last season, but his rebounding was still as good as ever. Jordan averaged a phenomenal 15.2 rebounds a game last season, a career-high. Last season, Dallas tied for 24th in the league in team rebounding averages, corralling 42.9 a game, while also allowing their opponents to nab a league-high 47.5 rebounds a game. Jordan will solve that problem practically by himself.

Dallas should also be excited for Jordan’s improvements from the charity stripe. Jordan shot 58 percent from the free throw line last season, which isn’t good, but a major improvement compared to his entire career. It may, in fact, be good enough to not force Dallas to bench Jordan in crunch time. Even if it’s been three years in the making, Jordan should make Dallas very happy this season.

-Matt John

WHO WE LIKE

1. Rick Carlisle

It’s been a rough couple of the years for one of the league’s best coaches. From all the drama behind the scenes with Rajon Rondo and Nerlens Noel to DeAndre Jordan reneging the team, both Carlisle and the Mavericks have been through a lot, but that’s over now. With Jordan and Doncic onboard, Carlisle now has plenty of lemons to make lemonade with. Now that his roster has both talent and depth again, don’t be surprised that, if and when the Mavericks find themselves in the playoff hunt, Carlisle will be making another run at Coach of the Year.

2. Dennis Smith Jr.

Everything that Dennis Smith did last year was exactly what many expected from him, as both his strengths and his weaknesses were on full display. Smith is a super athlete with good passing instincts and fantastic energy, but his spacing leaves much to be desired. A fair amount of Dallas’ success hinges on his improvement this season, a challenge that Smith appears to relish. DSJ doesn’t have to be Stephen Curry for both he and Dallas to succeed. All he needs to do is capitalize on such a promising rookie year under the tutelage of Coach Carlisle.

3. Wes Matthews

Matthews has done everything he can to regain his form after his devastating Achilles injury three years ago. He hasn’t been able to get it back entirely, but he has tried his best since arriving in Dallas. At 32 years old and on the last year of his contract, you better believe Matthews will be playing his heart out this season. Matthews is still a reliable floor spacer – 38 percent from three for his career – and he still tries his best on defense. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, his efforts should fit well with Dallas’ goals.

4. Dirk Nowitzki

You thought we’d forget about good ol’ Dirk? No chance in hell would we forget about the best Maverick of all time! At 40 years old, Dirk won’t be much more than a role player for Dallas. That’s all that can be expected of him at this point. Dirk stands out because he’s one of the few players in the NBA that stuck with his team through the thick and thin in a league where loyalty is going extinct from both players and general managers alike. That’s what makes Dirk’s final years so riveting to watch. With any luck, he’ll also have a great influence on Luka Doncic’s future as a pro.

-Matt John

STRENGTHS

This is the most well-rounded roster the Mavericks have had since the one they assembled in 2014 (before they acquired Rondo). The Mavericks have a team that is built to compete both now and in the future, led by one of the league’s best basketball minds in Rick Carlisle. They have young talented building blocks in Smith and Doncic. They have star talent and pseudo-star talent in Jordan and Barnes respectively. They have experienced vets in Dirk, Matthews, Barea, Powell, and Devin Harris among others. Ironically, Dallas’ biggest strength may be that they don’t have a weakness to exploit. If all goes right, they may be the one team nobody in the West will want to face in the playoffs.

-Matt John

WEAKNESSES

As well-rounded as they are, the Mavericks’ weakness is that they don’t have an elite player on their squad. They had one in Dirk, but he’s way past his prime. They could have two in Smith and Doncic, but their primes are years away. It took Dirk a few years to become a star, and it took a few more years for him to evolve into the legend he is today. This is a league where talent rules supreme no matter what changes are made. Dallas has admirably done what it can to build a winning team in Dirk’s last ride, but their absence of a star could really hurt their chances in the postseason.

-Matt John

THE BURNING QUESTION

What is Dallas’ long-term plan?

It appears that this is the team that Dallas wants to run with as Dirk fades into the sunset. Whether this team is what Dallas wants past Dirk’s retirement is another story. That’s the impression I got when they gave Jordan a one-year deal instead of a long-term contract. A lot of Dallas’ future rides on how they do this season. If this experiment works, then Dallas should do everything in their power to keep the team together. If it fails, Jordan and/or Matthews may not stay. If the Mavericks can’t replace them, they may opt for a full rebuild, which could affect Carlisle’s desire to stay as head coach. This team is more likely to succeed than it is not to, but after this season, the future is up in the air.

-Matt John