Are the Milwaukee Bucks truly back as contenders?

The Milwaukee Bucks enjoyed the trophy presentation for the NBA Cup. Giannis Antetokounmpo reveled in Adam Silver rattling off all his career accomplishments. The world got to see Damian Lillard finally win some team hardware.

Champagne? That remained on ice. Even with the open delight at winning the NBA Cup, the Bucks made it clear there’s a bigger goal: an NBA championship.

After winning a title in 2021, Milwaukee has followed up with a conference semifinal exit and two first-round exits. With extreme roster inflexibility after acquiring Damian Lillard, the questions have only become louder about whether an aging core has it in them to win four playoff series on the trot.

Are the Bucks truly back in the contender discussion after winning the NBA Cup? Let’s take a deeper look.

Giannis makes anything possible

What was evident with Antetokounmpo dominating the final is that being the best player on the court always matters. He showed Vegas and everyone watching that he can still be that. He thoroughly outplayed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on both ends of the court and is still arguably the most dominant force in the game today.

What a ridiculous stat line from Giannis.

26 PTS | 19 REB | 10 AST | 3 BLK | 2 STL pic.twitter.com/fDRt49pH4w

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) December 18, 2024

On the season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 32.7 points, 11.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.6 blocks while shooting 61.4 percent from the field. After a few years of trying to expand his offensive game to include threes, he has doubled down on attacking the paint. The presence of Damian Lillard certainly helps with that, and Antetokounmpo is averaging just 0.7 three-point attempts per game after averaging as many as 4.7 attempts per game in 2019-20.

Beyond the offense, Antetokounmpo remains a wrecking ball defensively as well. His rim protection and court coverage is elite, making sure that opposing offenses always have to be wary of where the Greek Freak may be lurking.

How good is the defense, really?

When Milwaukee started the season 2-8, the team ranked 20th in offense and 26th in defense. In going 12-3 since, the Bucks have been eighth in offense and 14th in defense.

That’s what made the stellar defensive performance against the Thunder in the NBA Cup final that much more of a surprise. Milwaukee was truly stifling with Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez’s interior defense combining with Andre Jackson’s pesky perimeter work exceedingly well. From an Oklahoma City perspective, they will argue that it was a truly terrible shooting night (5-of-32 from three) which should be an anomaly.

Milwaukee having Brook Lopez switch pick and roll in the second half. One of my favorite subplots of this season is Brook switching, seeing the drive and immediately spinning to get to the rim. pic.twitter.com/9vIUDCCEyB

— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) December 18, 2024

The truth is that Milwaukee will have to show more nights like that to prove the defense is for real. It’s one thing to be able to pull it off in one game, consistency is going to be key in having the belief to do it over the course of a seven-game series.

Middleton as X-Factor

Khris Middleton played in 33 games in 2022-23, 55 games in 2023-24, and just four games so far this season. He underwent off-season surgeries for both his ankles and it is very hard to predict what version of Middleton the Bucks can lean on in the post-season.

In the four games this season, Middleton has averaged just 7.0 points in 21 minutes per game. He is shooting 25.9 percent from the field and 25 percent from three. While it was certainly impressive that the Bucks could get over the line in a one-game scenario against the Thunder and have turned around their season as a whole, a best-of-seven without a healthy Middleton against the likes of Boston, Cleveland, Orlando and perhaps arch nemesis Miami could prove a very different proposition.

Now 33, Middleton will have to find a way to be close to his peak averaging around 20 points per game for this Bucks team to be a true championship threat. There just isn’t enough scoring depth otherwise and the Bucks being a second-apron team leaves no room for tangible upgrades via trade.

Lillard’s time to shine

Trading Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard was supposed to extend Milwaukee’s championship window, not accelerate the end.

It was a tough transition last season after 11 seasons in Portland and coping with a divorce along with a new residence weighed on him. Lillard averaged 24.3 points a year ago, a decrease of nearly eight points from the season before. Granted, there’s less pressure on him to be the primary scorer with Antetokounmpo around, but it was still a glaring drop-off.

In 22 games so far this season, Lillard has marginally upped his scoring to 25.7 per game and his efficiency has improved. He’s always going to be someone who can be trusted for late game offense, and that’s needed with Antetokounmpo’s free-throw woes making it a tricky proposition to put the ball in his hands late.

Doc’s playoff woes

This will certainly be a concern when going up against the very best in the East. Doc Rivers’ championship came 17 years ago and there have been plenty of bones to pick with the way his teams have performed in the post-season since. He has yet to make the conference finals since.

Then there’s the history of blown 3-1 series leads as well, something three of his teams have done.

In fairness, Milwaukee’s players have had nothing but praise for the manner in which Rivers has orchestrated this season’s turnaround thus far. It’s worth remembering, though, that in the 12-3 record over the past 15 regular season games, eight of the wins have come against sub-.500 teams. The four wins over plus-.500 teams include a one-point win over Houston, a three-point win over Miami, an Atlanta team that’s exactly .500, and an Orlando team missing both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Verdict

As we saw last season, winning the NBA Cup is one thing, winning in the playoffs entirely another. The Los Angeles Lakers looked dominant during its In-Season Tournament run a year ago but were dumped out of the playoffs in the first round in five games.

Between the lack of depth, league-average defense during the 12-3 stretch, and perhaps taking advantage of a lighter schedule, there is still plenty of reason to believe the Bucks are a very good team short of contention status rather than true contenders at this point.