3 Questions For Game 5 Of The NBA Finals

Key Highlights

• The Dallas Mavericks‘ 133.3 offensive rating in Game 4 was their highest of the playoffs
• They posted a 38.9 percent offensive rebounding rate, which was their second-best mark of the playoffs
• The Boston Celtics‘ 85.7 offensive rating was their second-lowest number of the year, including the regular season and playoffs

Standing toe-to-toe with elimination and the end of a splendid season, the Dallas Mavericks produced one of their finest showings across an 103-game campaign Friday night. On the precipice of their first championship since 2008 and staring at an opportunity to punctuate a magically dominant 2023-24, the Boston Celtics produced perhaps their worst showing of the season Friday night.

The result of that intersection: a 122-84 beatdown by Dallas to send the NBA Finals back to TD Garden for Monday’s Game 5.

Despite the rout, Boston remains in control, holding a 3-1 lead. Every playoff game is its own entity, but it’s still nonetheless difficult to completely ignore a 38-point blowout. Although it might ultimately be irrelevant in determining Game 5 or the collective series, Dallas seemed to enact some adjustments that Boston must now navigate to secure a fourth and final win this round.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, finally took it to the Celtics for long stretches without already trailing by double-digits; their tremendous play ignited a healthy lead itself rather than prompting a futile comeback effort. They were energetic, attentive and physical defensively. They closed off the paint and disrupted drives. They wielded focus and pace offensively to magnify Boston’s weakpoints, which were particularly glaring with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined.

So, with Game 5 a handful of hours away, here are a few developments to monitor that proved pivotal in Game 4.

Can The Mavericks Play With The Same Tempo Offensively?

Through three games, aside from woeful outside shooting, Dallas’ grandest offensive struggle was its inability to function with any flow or rhythm. Rarely did it generate easy offense or quick-hitting tries before Boston’s stingy defense was organized. Led by Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, the Celtics corralled much of Kyrie Irving‘s frenetically composed creation.

They were content for Luka Doncic‘s methodical approach to define possessions. He obliged, consistently operating against a smart, sharp and set half-court defense and failing to light up the scoreboard with a mix of volume and efficiency.

In Game 4, Doncic and the Mavericks dialed up the tempo. Per inpredictable, their time to shoot dwindled from 12.7 seconds the first three games to 11.8 seconds. They were especially diligent about pushing after a miss, averaging 9.2 seconds to shoot following a defensive rebound, compared to 11.1 seconds in Games 1-3.

Boston struggled to handle this shift. It regularly let Doncic find cross-matches to get downhill against its guards, who lacked the size and strength to combat him. These cross-matches left the Celtics scrambled. Even when Dallas wasn’t cosplaying as the 7 Seconds Or Less Suns, it still was prompt in arranging the half-court offense before Boston could establish its precise defensive positioning.

The Mavericks were intentional in which defenders they sought. That intentionality panned out because their cadence didn’t allow the Celtics to dictate matchups. Whoever Dallas wanted to target, it could.

According to Cleaning the Glass, the Mavericks’ 113.4 half-court offensive rating was their highest of the series. Before Game 4, they sat at just 87.1 points per 100 possessions in the half-court. In transition, they averaged 157.1 points per 100 possessions, up from 108.7 in the initial three games.

Their emphasis to avoid the clamps of Boston’s set defense was crucial, but the Celtics also have to play with much more haste. They were discombobulated and undisciplined, leading to plenty of miscues and breakdowns in any context. Whether Dallas can keep the mojo rocking or Boston can render it a temporary blip will loom large Monday night.

Who Will Win The Battle On The Glass?

Among the preeminent characteristics of the Mavericks’ rampage to the Finals was their imprint on the offensive glass. Through three rebounds, they ranked fourth in offensive rebounding rate (29.8 percent), with six rotation players all in the 60th percentile or higher in individual offensive rebounding rate. On the other side, Boston entered the Finals sporting the lowest opposing offensive rebounding rate (21.6 percent).

Along the way to their 3-0 lead, the Celtics held up well, limiting Dallas to a 25.9 percent offensive rebounding rate. They split the difference between their standout clip and the Mavericks’ dominance. Never did it really feel as though the boards were a winning battleground for Dallas.

That changed in Game 4. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Mavericks scooped up 38.9 percent of their own misses (94th percentile in the playoffs). Dereck Lively II  nabbed seven of the 13, which matched his total from the first three games. Nobody else snagged more than two. Dallas scored 16 second-chance points. Thirteen of those occurred before both teams emptied the bench.

Regardless of who was guarding the 7-foot-1 Lively, he was always much taller. His primary matchup, Jayson Tatum, is listed at 6-foot-8 (that’s an undersell, yes). His secondary matchup, Jaylen Brown, is listed at 6-foot-6.

When Lively stayed out of the action and roamed the dunker spot, he made sure to leverage his towering frame. If he served as the screener and received an even smaller assignment on a switch, he did the same.

He floated into openings and refused to be boxed out. Boston exacerbated the issue, repeatedly failing to put a body on the big fella. He had the freedom to high-point boards or track them until they fell into his clutches. According to NBA.com, the Celtics tallied three box outs on defensive rebounds in Game 4 — a stark decline from the 9.7 they averaged during the three prior games.

Boston’s decision to prioritize ball skills like shooting, passing and driving creates a fairly small frontline. That’s not usually an issue. The surrounding talent compensates in other areas and the Celtics are a fine rebounding team. They flock to the glass and have done well to gang rebound in this series.

Those aspects evaporated in Game 4, and simplified Lively’s efforts. The approach he and Boston brought widened his advantage. How both clubs follow up that development is integral to their Game 5 identities.

How Do The Celtics Rediscover Their Elite Spacing?

By and large, Boston is the NBA’s gold standard for spacing offensively. It typically plays five shooters together, at least four of whom are viable options to drive as well. That’s why it led the league in offensive rating this regular season and has remained pretty effective in the playoffs.

Yet its pristine spacing dissipated in Game 4. On numerous possessions, the Celtics were clunky and out of sorts. Al Horford would screen then wander inside, unsure of whether to post or seal the smaller defender. That hesitancy clogged the paint and eased Dallas’ rotations.

Horford isn’t an accomplished interior play-finisher like Porzingis. Unless he’s posting up or imposing a Gortat Seal to aid his teammates’ downhill ventures, there’s rarely a need for him to reside in or near the paint. His indecision was merely part of the problem, though, rather than the root cause.

The Mavericks timed their help to better complicate passing reads and windows. They punished Xavier Tillman‘s inability to stretch the floor. Just like Game 2, the Celtics periodically tried stashing a guard in the dunker spot, but saw very little success this time around.

Lively was an irritant inside. Dallas upsized and played Maxi Kleber alongside him for 15 minutes. Behind an 83.2 defensive rating, it outscored Boston by 15 points in those minutes; the Mavericks were minus-10 in their 15 total minutes together the first three games. The lone reserves to see meaningful run were four defensive-minded options: Kleber, Lively, Josh Green and Dante Exum.

All of these tweaks, as well as some self-sabotage, forced the Celtics into a ton of arduous, uncomfortable offensive trips. An 85.7 offensive rating was their second-lowest number of the year between the regular season and playoffs.

After recording 59 shots around the hoop in the first three games, Boston took nine (six makes) in Game 4, according to Cleaning the Glass. Its rim frequency dropped from 27.4 percent to 21 percent. The 31 percent mark beyond the arc is shaky, but it was partly a byproduct of dicey drives and paint touches.

Dallas hit only 31.8 percent of its threes, but logged 24 shots at the rim (16 makes) and ended with a 37 percent frequency. Those were the major discrepancies offensively, not one team catching fire from deep while the other endured frigid winds.

If Boston remedies this trend, it’ll be in a much more favorable spot for Game 5. If the Mavericks coax a bunch of sticky possessions again, it has a decent chance at adding a sixth contest to the series ledger. Each side will hope those respective fortunes soon become reality.

*All data referenced from Cleaning the Glass excludes garbage time, which was deemed to start at the beginning of the fourth quarter in Game 4.*