2014-15 Charlotte Hornets Season Preview

The Charlotte Hornets essentially hit rock bottom during the 2012 and 2013 campaigns. How bad was it in the Queen City? The team combined for win just 28 games during this span and were relegated to laughingstock status around the league. However, things are different for Charlotte heading into training camp this season. The team pumped out 43 wins in 2014, en route to a playoff appearance and are poised to make another run at the postseason.

The Hornets have a steady mix of young talent, a capable coach and an All-NBA player leading the charge. The Hornets are no longer the league’s go to punchline. While they’re still quite a bit away from title contention, make no mistake, the buzz is back.

Basketball Insiders previews the 2014-2015 Charlotte Hornets.

Five Guys Think

Outside of Cleveland and Chicago, no Eastern Conference team improved themselves quite as much as the Charlotte Hornets did this past offseason. Obviously luring Lance Stephenson away from Indiana was a huge coup for them, and it definitely shores up their backcourt rotation.  Rookies P.J. Hairston and Noah Vonleh both were pretty incredible values where they were selected in the draft, and both could contribute on this roster right away. Steve Clifford has quickly become one of the better coaches in the conference, and Al Jefferson shouldn’t be any less effective than he was a year ago. Without question, this is a team on the rise, and while they’re only ranked third in the Southeast Division in these projections, they could just as easily win it their first year as the Hornets.

3rd Place – Southeast Division

-Joel Brigham

Can you feel it? The Charlotte Hornets will enter this season with more buzz than at any point in the franchise’s history. After years in the league’s cellar, the Hornets won 43 games last season and clinched a playoff berth. Even though the team was unceremoniously eliminated in the first round of the postseason, the future is bright in the Queen City. Two moves during the summer of 2013 put the team in this position. The signing of veteran center Al Jefferson was huge for the team in regards to respectability and Steve Clifford has finally put an end to the revolving door of head coaches in Charlotte. Add in emerging guard Kemba Walker’s development and you have a team who will be fully expected to make another playoff run in 2014-15.

4th Place – Southeast Division

– Lang Greene

Charlotte made huge strides last season, surprising everyone and making the playoffs for the first time in years. This year, I think they’ll continue to get better. Not only will the players be more comfortable under head coach Steve Clifford (who was a first-time NBA head coach last year), they also had a terrific offseason. They added key contributors like Lance Stephenson, Marvin Williams, Noah Vonleh and P.J. Hairston to an already-talented core that features Al Jefferson, Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, etc. Stephenson, in particular, should really help the team on both ends, especially if he performs at the near-All-Star level that he played at for the first half of the 2013-14 season. Charlotte ended their playoff drought last year, which was an enormous step in the right direction for the team. But now it’s time to go even further and actually make some noise in the East.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Alex Kennedy

With the combination of Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson, the Hornets turned in a respectable 43-39 season, giving the fans of Charlotte a rare treat of a winning basketball season. With Lance Stephenson added to their core which also includes newcomers Noah Vonleh, Marvin Williams and Brian Roberts, the Hornets may be able to flirt with 50 wins this coming season. Doing so will be no easy task, though, as the Southeast Division will be no cakewalk. Gerald Henderson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo are all still learning the NBA game and still have room for improvement. If even two of those four can become consistent contributors, the Hornets will soon be recapturing past glory and making routine trips to the second round out East. The biggest question is whether or not Al Jefferson sees himself as a Hornets for the long-term, especially since he may opt out of his current contract after this coming season.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Moke Hamilton

The Charlotte Hornets displayed the kind of self-awareness last year that we haven’t seen from them in quite some time. After coming off their second playoff appearance in franchise history, it would have been really easy to think that they’re further along in the rebuilding process than they truly were and just settle for staying relatively pat. Instead, they were one of the more aggressive teams of the offseason, signing Gordan Hayward to a max offer sheet, then signing Lance Stephenson after the Jazz matched their offer for Hayward. They were in desperate need of another explosive weapon out on the perimeter, and got Stephenson on a great, short-term deal. He’s really going to make a difference in helping push them closer towards serious contention in the Eastern Conference. With additional firepower, more depth and legitimate star power in the Stephenson, Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker, the re-branded Hornets are headed towards their best season ever.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Yannis Koutroupis

Top of the List

Top Offensive Player: In this day and age consisting of a weaker crop of centers roaming the paint, the Hornets have one of the league’s best in Al Jefferson. The 10 year veteran has always been known to put up a gaudy stat line, but last season he strapped the Hornets to his back on both sides of the floor and silenced critics who questioned his leadership. Jefferson is a 20 point and 10 rebound threat every time he laces up the high tops and was named to his first All-NBA (third) team last season. Known for his effectiveness in the low post, the next stop for Jefferson is the ever elusive All-Star selection which perennially has eluded his grasp. Charlotte also features emerging point guard Kemba Walker who is more than capable of putting up strong nights offensively. However, the overall success of the Hornets this season rests on the shoulders of Jefferson.

Top Defensive Player: The arrival of guard Lance Stephenson immediately strengthens the Hornets perimeter defense. Stephenson is an athletic force who can effectively guard multiple positions, but the Hornets’ best individual defender is none other than Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The third year forward is routinely tasked with guarding the opponent’s best perimeter player, often times without weak side help. The biggest drawback for Kidd-Gilchrist at this point is the fact his offensive limitations often play a huge role in his nightly minute allocation. With Stephenson now by Kidd-Gilchrist’s side, Charlotte will be one of the most frustrating teams for opposing wings to matchup against.

Top Playmaker: The arrival of center Al Jefferson last season significantly reduced the offensive burden on point guard Kemba Walker. This allowed Walker to focus more on ball handling duties and getting his teammates involved rather than the Hornets living and dying by his offensive production. Walker is one of the fastest guards in the league with the rock and has a knack for getting into the lane and creating havoc. The addition of Lance Stephenson, who can also create and get into the lane, gives the Hornets an incredibly tough backcourt to defend.

Top Clutch Player: The go to options down the stretch in clutch situations for Charlotte is undoubtedly Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. But the nod goes to Jefferson who was more efficient on both sides of the ball with the game on the line and less than five minutes remaining. Over half of the Hornets’ games had a point differential of five points or less with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter last season. Jefferson will be counted on for producing points in these situations. It will be Walker’s primary job to properly set up his center for those buckets.

The Unheralded Player: Marvin Williams was selected by the Atlanta Hawks before Chris Paul and Deron Williams in the 2005 NBA Draft and has spent his entire career trying to live up to those expectations. While Williams will likely never reach the heights of Paul and Williams, what’s missing is the fact the forward has become a very productive player throughout his career. The stats aren’t gaudy but Williams has averaged double-digits in scoring in six of his nine years in the league. Williams has also developed three-point range, evident by his 84 makes in 2014 (36 percent).  Williams can also defend multiple positions. Williams will never be like Paul and Williams in the sense of personally carrying a team to the postseason, but title contending teams always have a guy like Williams in the fold doing the work.

Best New Addition: The Hornets let it be known they were going to be active in free agency this summer and swung for the fences trying to lure Gordon Hayward into town. While the club didn’t get Hayward, the signing of Lance Stephenson to a three-year deal is potentially the better fit. Stephenson brings a scrappy toughness to the roster and is someone Charlotte fans will rally behind.

– Lang Greene

Who We Like

1. Al Jefferson: The veteran center has always been productive but battled injuries early in his career and spent time languishing on more than a few subpar rosters. Therefore, the note on Jefferson was one of being capable of stuffing the nightly box score, but unable to significantly elevate an inferior team. Jefferson silenced a large contingent of his doubters with his performance last season in Charlotte. Jefferson became the face of the franchise, led a cellar dwelling team to the playoffs and scooped up All-NBA honors. What will the veteran big man do for an encore in 2015?

2. Steve Clifford: The first part of establishing a solid program is finding consistency on the bench. Prior to hiring Clifford as head coach, Charlotte tried Larry Brown, Paul Silas and Mike Dunlap at the helm in failed attempts to jumpstart the franchise. Clifford, a longtime assistant, almost immediately gained his troops buy-in and also ushered in a sorely needed defensive philosophy which helped the Hornets stay competitive when their shots weren’t falling. Clifford is the Hornets’ guy and his hire is one of the reasons things have turned around for the franchise in short order.

3. Lance Stephenson: His antics get the mainstream headlines, but his game says future All-Star performer. Some guys approach the game with a business-like mentality, others wear their emotions on their sleeves. Such is the case of Stephenson who is considered this year’s high risk high reward free agency signing. Stephenson can play and the Hornets’ style fits his game. We’re leaning more toward All-Star level performer and don’t foresee an implosion.

4. Kemba Walker: The dynamic guard continues to improve as a floor general and playmaker. With less demands on him offensively, Walker has been able to focus on running the team more – which is a good thing. The arrival of Stephenson via free agency gives Walker another weapon at his disposal. Walker should shoot a career high from the field and also set a new career high in assists in 2014-15.

5. Rich Cho: The veteran league executive has pulled off some crafty moves as the Hornets’ general manager in the past year. The signing of Al Jefferson, Brian Roberts, Lance Stephenson and Marvin Williams have increased Charlotte’s depth. The hiring of head coach Steve Clifford has added the needed stability. Cho’s job isn’t done, but the franchise is headed in the right direction after year’s in the basement.

– Lang Greene

Strengths

The Hornets are one of the few teams in the entire league with a dominating low post presence offensively. The presence of Al Jefferson on the interior gives Charlotte an edge in the paint on most nights. Kemba Walker also has a solid knack for getting into the lane and finishing in his own right. The arrival of Lance Stephenson will put even more pressure on teams trying to keep the Hornets from camping on the interior. The Hornets also improved significantly defensively by adding Stephenson. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will eventually become one of the league’s better perimeter defenders and while Jefferson isn’t a defensive juggernaut he has played extremely well in Steve Clifford’s system.

– Lang Greene

Weaknesses

While one of the Hornets’ biggest strengths is having guys adept at finishing in the paint, one of the team’s biggest weaknesses will be knocking down three-point shots – consistently. This will give their opponents an opportunity to sag off defensively and protect the paint. The pressure will be on Gary Neal, Gerald Henderson, Kemba Walker and Lance Stephenson to consistently knock down these shots to make Al Jefferson’s job easy on the inside.

– Lang Greene

The Salary Cap

The Hornets dropped under the cap to make a significant offer to restricted free agent Gordon Hayward, but the Utah Jazz chose to match.  Instead, Charlotte signed unrestricted guard Lance Stephenson.  After adding Marvin Williams, Jannero Pargo and Brian Roberts, along with rookie first-rounders Noah Vonleh and P.J. Hairston, Charlotte has hit the cap with 14 guaranteed players.  What’s left to spend is the $2.7 million Room Exception.  The Hornets also have until Halloween to negotiate contract extensions with Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo, otherwise the pair will become restricted free agents next summer.

– Eric Pincus

Dunc’d On

It feels good to welcome the Charlotte Hornets back into the NBA after a regrettable 10 seasons for the Bobcats, just as they seem poised to have their most relevant season since their reincarnation.  But it seems like the optimism accompanying the name change and the signing of Lance Stephenson may be a bit overboard.  Some have talked about this team as a potential sleeper for the top half of the East playoff bracket, but I think they are more likely to miss the playoffs entirely than reach those heights.

Almost all of the cast is back this year, with an exchange of Josh McRoberts for Marvin Williams, Stephenson, and rookie Noah Vonleh.  On a pure talent-in/talent-out basis, this is an upgrade for the Hornets.  But basketball teams to not improve or decline solely on that basis, particularly teams with the weaknesses the Hornets project to have.

The Bobcats’ (past tense, still allowed to use that name) biggest weakness a season ago was the offense, in particular a lack of floor-spacing.  McRoberts was an essential part of what little offense this 24th-ranked squad could muster, as he amassed a ton of touches handling the ball out top and spaced the floor with his adequate shooting from the three-point line.  That was crucial to give Jefferson breathing room down low and open space for drives by Walker, especially when he shared the floor with total non-shooter Kidd-Gilchrist.

Stephenson is a better player than McRoberts, but he is also a below-average three-point shooter for a shooting guard when you consider the defensive attention he draws.  Although he shoots a competent percentage, he is not enough of a threat to really deter help off him.  And while Williams is a superior shooter to McRoberts, he was also a major reason Utah ranked a distant 30th on defense a year ago.  If he gets major time at the four, it would be hard to imagine the defense repeating last year’s performance with he and Al Jefferson manning the power positions.

Another issue for Charlotte was a lack of offensive rebounds, where they pulled down a mere 21.9% of their own misses, bad for 26th in the league.  This was by design, as coach Clifford emphasized getting back in transition as a large part of his miracle-working with the defense.  Nevertheless, the lack of second chances makes the job on offense a bit tougher.

This team had the point-differential of a .500 squad last year, and benefited from good health.  They may also fall victim to Bill James’ “Plexiglass Principle,” in which teams who improve a great deal one year, such as the Hornets (especially on defense) a year ago, tend to regress the following year.  If they are to improve, it will be advances from Stephenson, Walker, and Kidd-Gilchrist that power it, along with a minimal regression from Jefferson’s career year.  In particular, the perimeter trio must improve its shooting.

Best Case

49-33

Clifford continues to draw blood from a stone with the frontcourt defense, keeping it at the same level despite a big rotation of Jefferson, Williams, Cody Zeller, and rookie Vonleh.  The latter two provide semi-competent depth up front, and all of the perimeter players improve their shooting.

Worst Case

38-44

The Hornets have one of the smaller differentials between their best and worst case scenarios, as they are not relying on anyone injury-prone and have a good distribution of talent throughout their roster.  Much of this talent is young and figures to get better.  But in the bad scenario, the defense drops off for some of the reasons stated above.  Jefferson regresses offensively from his career year, both due to age and the lack of spacing, and nobody else can pick up the slack.  The defense slips out of the top-10 while the offense remains in the doldrums.

– Nate Duncan

The Burning Question

Can the Hornets take advantage of the Eastern Conference’s transition of power and rapidly rise in the standings?

The momentum is building in Charlotte. From top to bottom the Hornets have plenty of talented pieces, a capable head coach, a front office willing to spend and a fan base ready to explode with excitement. The Eastern Conference is in a state of transition which could provide an opening for the franchise to make some noise. Miami is no longer the power with LeBron James departing to Cleveland. The Cavaliers will need time to gel before they begin their reign of dominance. Chicago is still playing the wait-and-see game with Derrick Rose. Brooklyn has plenty of questions. New York, who should be competitive, is gearing up for the future. Washington is expected to emerge but is far from a dominant team. This could be a prime opportunity for the Hornets to stealthily make a move.

– Lang Greene