NBA Daily: Don’t Sleep on Fred Hoiberg

Fred Hoiberg hasn’t exactly had the best start as a head coach in the NBA.

In the three years that Hoiberg has coached the Bulls, the team has only gotten to the playoffs once as an eighth seed, where they were eliminated by the Celtics in six games.

Since taking the reins as coach, Hoiberg has tried to implement a pace-and-space system with Chicago. This approach would be hard to execute on a team like the Bulls over the last several years since Hoiberg’s best players weren’t exactly sharpshooters.

In the last four years, Hoiberg’s marquee players have included Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol, Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Taj Gibson, and Robin Lopez, all of whom ranged from putrid to “meh” floor spacers. Hoiberg’s system was not well-received by the team, specifically by Butler, which created much tension that escalated to the point of Butler issuing an “it’s him or me!” ultimatum to Bulls management.

Unlike almost every other team who’s been through similar conflicts between players and coaches, Chicago sided with the coach. Again, Hoiberg has not led the Bulls to much success, but the glimpses of excellence that have shown themselves from the system that he’s designed may very well show that the Bulls made the right choice.

It wasn’t too long ago that Hoiberg was holding his own against Brad Stevens in a playoff series, who many believe is one of the best coaches in the game at the moment. In the first round of the 2017 playoffs, the Bulls stole the first two games from the top-seeded Celtics while in Boston. Many point to the brilliance of Rajon Rondo for why the Bulls pulled ahead, which is mostly true, but the Bulls’ hot shooting in both games gave them an edge.

Between individual performances—Bobby Portis shot 8-for-10 including from 3-for-4 from three-point land in Game 1—or all-around team performances—the team shot 10-for-25 from three in Game 2, the shooting gave the Bulls an edge, which fueled hope for a potential upset.

Of course, it was all fluky given that Chicago shot 34 percent from three in the regular season, good for 24th in the league. Nonetheless, their spacing sent the Celtics spinning. The tides inevitably turned once Rondo went out with a thumb injury, effectively dooming the Bulls. Still, for a brief moment, Hoiberg’s strategy proved successful.

The Bulls later went full rebuild when they got rid of Butler, Rondo, and Wade, but somehow, we got yet another glimpse of Hoiberg’s brilliance. Record-wise, the Bulls were nothing to brag about, as their 27-55 record tied for sixth-worst record in the league, lowlighted by their 3-20 start. However, once Nikola Mirotic returned from injury, the Bulls went on a tear.

In a 12-game span, the Bulls had gone 10-2, beating half of the East’s playoff teams, including Boston, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. Mirotic’s return catapulted the Bulls’ three-point shooting, as they shot 38 percent from deep while shooting an average of 26 shots per game. It didn’t seem possible given all they got rid of, but the Bulls were rolling.

At that point, it didn’t matter because the Bulls were already in too big a hole to dig themselves out of, but Hoiberg’s system yet again got some results.

The rebuild is in full swing in the Windy City. but after the moves that the Bulls have made this summer, Hoiberg may finally show the NBA what he’s made of this upcoming season.

First, they drafted Wendell Carter with the seventh overall pick in the draft. Fans were understandably furious that the Bulls’ surprising albeit pointless 10-2 run midseason played a part in killing their chances of getting a top-5 pick in a loaded draft, but Carter put their anger to rest with his brilliant all-around play in the summer league.

Second, they re-signed Zach LaVine. The Bulls raised some eyebrows when they matched the very expensive offer sheet that LaVine signed with Sacramento, but LaVine looked like he hadn’t missed a beat when he came back late in the season. Now that he’ll have a full training camp under his belt, LaVine should be able to better acclimate himself into the Bulls’ game plan by the time the season begins.

Third, they added Jabari Parker. Parker will be one of the bigger question marks coming into this season given his injury history, but his potential as a dynamic scorer in this league is still untapped. Better yet, being a Chicago native and having a team option next year, Parker may be extra motivated to show why he was the second overall pick in the 2014 draft.

Factor in these guys with the exciting youth movement that Chicago already has in place, and the Bulls have formed a team that can only be described as “not good, but fun.”

But there’s more to it than that. This isn’t just about the talent that Chicago has accumulated since trading Jimmy Butler. The fact of the matter is, they’re now building the team that Fred Hoiberg always wanted to run after all these years.

Look at the three-point percentages from the Bulls’ young rotation from this past season:

Jabari Parker: 38 percent
Denzel Valentine: 38 percent
Lauri Markkanen: 36 percent
Bobby Portis: 36 percent
Zach Lavine: 34 percent
Kris Dunn: 32 percent

They may not have a Kyle Korver or a Ray Allen type, but that is all-around a step up compared to the shooters they had before. Factoring in Wendell Carter’s floor spacing in college (41 percent from three) and their other first-rounder Chandler Hutchison (35 percent), the Bulls youth movement can finally give Hoiberg the spacing he wants.

As for pacing, the Bulls are also on the up and up.

In Hoiberg’s first year, the Bulls ran at a pace of 95.7, which tied for 15th in the league. In his second, they ran at a pace of 95.3, good for 20th in the league. This past season, they’ve bumped themselves all the way to 10th as they played at a pace of 98.3. Now that Parker and LaVine are anticipated to play this season with a clean slate of health, their pace should continue to go up as Hoiberg has wanted from the beginning.

There will most definitely be some hurdles for the Bulls this season. Besides the fact that they are a very young team, nobody will be exactly intimidated by the Bulls’ defense. The Bull ranked 24th in defensive rating last year, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions, and there’s not much they can do to improve that outside of the addition of Carter. Dunn and Robin Lopez are more than solid, but LaVine, Parker, and Markkanen aren’t making an all-NBA Defense team anytime soon.

All of that, however, is part of the learning process for both Hoiberg and these Baby Bulls. Once again, the bar for them is set at “not good, but fun.” The Bulls had the worst point differential in the Eastern conference at -7.0, so there’s plenty of room for improvement for them, especially now that there is nothing holding back their coach.

With Hoiberg’s vision coming to fruition, and the Eastern Conference having quite a few iffy teams, this is an opportunity for the fourth-year coach to prove once and for all that he was the right man for the job when the Bulls hired him to replace the well-esteemed Tom Thibodeau.

In other words, for Chicago to succeed, Hoiberg must take the bull by the horns.