Bram Welch has been writing about sports betting and iGaming for over five years now, starting as a freelancer before joining our team. Previously he worked teaching English as a foreign language and as a journalist for the UK's largest regional newspaper.
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Richard has spent the last 5 years consulting with clients in the sports betting space, and specialising as a freelance horse racing and sports betting content writer/editor for a number of large publishing houses. His educational background is in mathematics and his sporting claim to fame is winning the 2014 edition of Racing TV's Tipstar contest.
All posts by Richard SmithNBA betting strategy describes the steps you take in an attempt to be more successful when betting on basketball in the US. You can apply strategy through the types of bets you place, how you bet, or how you manage your bankroll.
You will learn about common strategies applied to sports betting in general and how they are helpful when applied to placing bets on the NBA. There are also some specific NBA basketball betting strategies.
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The Best NBA Strategies in 2024
Applying a strategy when you are betting on the NBA is vital. You can use the stats at NBA.com to help inform the wagers you place.
Research Past Match-Ups
Look at what happened in the reverse fixture this season. Based on the previous results this season, you can get a good idea of how the two teams weigh up against each other.
Be careful when looking at historic results because a team’s personnel can change every season. Look out for long-lasting rivalries, as these can often be unpredictable matches.
Track the Player Injury Roster
The makeup of the playing squad is absolutely crucial to how a team will perform. Many teams have their stand-out performers, so if one of those is missing, use this information to inform your betting strategy.
It doesn’t necessarily mean the team won’t win, but be more considerate with the wager you place. For example, if Luka Dončić is injured, the Dallas Mavericks could still win, but there’s a greater chance of a lower-scoring game. Therefore, you should reconsider your over/under bet.
Current Team Performance
Looking at the form of the two teams can be beneficial. A team performing well will likely win their next match against a team flailing at the bottom of the division.
However, there is a saying that form is temporary and class is permanent, so bear that in mind when a losing Los Angeles Lakers team comes up against a winning Washington Wizards side.
Set Odds Update Alerts
Being aware of changing odds can be beneficial for placing successful wagers on NBA matches.
There are betting strategies that use the changing odds to inform you which bets to place. Timely odds updates can help you stay on top of these movements so you can act quickly.
Check Both Teams Game Schedule
Packing 82 games into the NBA season can be tough on the legs. Ultimately, you are looking at the NBA schedule to see how the team’s surrounding matches will affect their performance.
Star players get rested by an NBA team playing back-to-back matches. Bear this in mind when you are placing your bets. If the Golden State Warriors have an away match against the Los Angeles Clippers followed by a match against the San Antonio Spurs, they are likely to rest Steph Curry in the second match.
Learn How to Develop Your Own NBA Betting Strategy
Sports betting is similar across different sports, but basketball is unique. We look at common betting strategies and how you can apply them to NBA betting.
Strategies Based on Types of NBA Bets You Can Place
Here, we look at how you can use different types of bets to apply a sound NBA betting strategy. We have used the same match where possible to keep things clear, simple, and easy to understand.
NBA Futures Betting Strategy
A futures bet is also known as an outright bet. They apply to any bet for which the outcome is further into the future than just a single game. They tend to be based on outright winners of competitions. For example, you could bet on the winner of a division, a conference, or even the ultimate NBA championship winner. All of these are example of futures betting.
The selection added to the betting slip in the example above shows a wager that the winner of the NBA championship in 2024 will be a team from the Eastern Conference. You can be more successful with these types of bets because there are multiple teams to which each wager can apply. There are 15 teams in the Eastern Conference. If any one of those wins the championship, you will win the bet. The Boston Celtics are one of the favorites and they are in the Eastern Conference but you will also be covered if the Miami Heat are the ultimate champions.
You could place a similar bet on which division the ultimate winner will come from, which is also shown in the example above. Other similar options include betting on which state the team will come from and whether the team will be a first-time winner.
NBA Moneyline Betting Strategy
Moneyline bets are straight bets on who will be the winner of a match. The team you place a moneyline bet on is the team you think will win a match. Generally, one team is listed with odds of a positive value while the other team will have odds of a negative value. The team with negative odds is the favorite, and the team with positive odds is less favored by the sportsbook.
The example shows moneyline betting on the Chicago Bulls in a match against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bulls’ odds are +166, so they are the less favored team. The Cleveland Cavaliers have negative odds, so they are the sportsbook’s favorite.
If you place a successful $100 bet on the Chicago Bulls, you will get back $266 for a $166 profit.
NBA Over/Under Betting Strategy
Over/under betting is also known as totals betting because it typically involves betting on the total number of points scored. Looking at past results between two teams can help you make a successful totals wager. Over/under bets are seen as a good bet because they are based on opinion.
The example shows over/under betting on the totals market. In this case, it is a bet that the total number of points scored in the match will fall below 216.5 points for odds of -105. If the match’s final score is 114 – 103, then you will lose the bet because the total points score is 217, above 216.5. If you place a $100 and the score of this match is 100 – 103, you will get back $195.24 for a $95.24 profit.
You can also place over/under bets on other aspects of the game, including team props and player props. For example, you could place an over/under bet on the number of points a team scores, how many assists, rebounds, or points a single player makes, or even an over/under bet on player turnovers.
NBA Spread Betting Strategy
Spread betting involves betting on a team win with the addition of a handicap. The handicap can favor the team you are betting on or the opposing team. Sportsbooks usually work out, but the best sportsbooks offer alternative spread lines alongside the ones shown in the main selection.
The example shows a spread bet in the Chicago Bulls’ favor in the same match against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The +5 means that they have a margin of five points. You would win this bet if the Chicago Bulls win or lose by 4 points or less. You can think of the +5 as the team starting with a five-point advantage and a -5 as a team starting with a five-point disadvantage.
If the Bulls lose 94 – 100, you will lose the bet, but if the Bulls lose 96 – 100, you will win because they only lost by four points. If the Bulls win, you will also win the bet. A $100 stake will return $190.91 for a $90.91 profit.
Historical statistics can also help form an NBA sports betting strategy for your spread betting. The NBA’s official website is a tremendous source of information. Looking at the winning margin between the teams in the past can inform your decision.
NBA Parlay Betting Strategy
Parlays are also known as accumulators. Parlays are multiple different bets rolled into one, where all selections must be successful for the whole bet to be successful. They are a great way to get longer odds on a wager.
There are parlays and same-game parlays. Typically, the odds for a parlay involving different matches are calculated by multiplying the decimal. However, the process is more complex for same game parlay betting, where sportsbooks must account for correlated selections.
The example shows a simple parlay of moneyline bets on different matches. As it is a parlay involving different matches, the odds for the whole parlay are the decimal versions multiplied together. The individual selections as decimal odds are:
- -220 = 1.4545454545454546
- -145 = 1.6896551724137931
- -700 = 1.1428571428571428
- +165 = 2.65
- -155 = 1.6451612903225805
When you multiply those decimal odds together: 12.2453635352, which is expressed as +1124.54 in the American odds format.
Teaser bets also involve building a parlay. They use a combination of spread and over/under bets to get more chance of success. Bettors should use a four-point tease when betting on basketball. A four-point tease will typically add +125 to the odds of your wager.
You may be nervous to back the Toronto Raptors against the Dallas Mavericks with a +3 advantage, so you use the teaser to expand the advantage. You can use a teaser bet to add four points to that and increase the advantage to +7.
BetOnline is a great place for placing teaser bets because they have a teaser tool in their betting slip. You can make two spread choices and click teaser to turn them into teaser bets automatically.
NBA Props Betting Strategy
Prop bets are any bets not tied to a game’s result or outcome. There are player props that are related to what individual players do in a match. You can use these for your NBA player prop betting strategy. There are team props that relate to what the team does. There are also game props that relate to different aspects of the game, such as who will score first or last, what will be the largest winning margin throughout the game, and will both teams score over 100 points.
Most props have binary outcomes like yes/no or over/under. When it comes to the NBA, player props will largely regard the number of times a player does something. Like whether they will score over/under a certain amount of points or provide over/under a certain amount of assists. You can also bet over/under on the number of three point field goals a team will score.
The example shows a wager that DeMar DeRozan will provide over 4.5 assists. If he provides four assists in the game, you will lose the bet. If he provides five or more assist, you will win the bet. $100 will return $192 for a $92 profit.
NBA Live Betting Strategy
Live bets are any bet placed on a match that is currently ongoing. Almost any other bet can be a live bet, provided it is placed while the match is taking place.
You can place moneyline, over/under, spread, parlay, player props, and team props as live bets. You can place a bet that one team will win while the match is ongoing. You can place a bet that one of the players will score over a certain amount while the match is live. You can combine multiple selections into one parlay bet while a match is in play.
One of the interesting ways you can use live betting is to bet on the next occurrence. For example, who will win the quarter, who will score the next point, or who will have the next assist.
What Are Some of the Best NBA Betting Systems
Now we will look at some classic betting systems and how you can apply them to NBA betting.
Blowout Betting System
The blowout betting system in NBA betting involves betting against the favorites, beating the spread if they won their previous game by 15 or more. SportsInsights found that teams beat the spread less than half the time following a 15+ margin win in their previous game. This is potentially caused by fatigue or the coach’s need to rotate the team.
You must be aware that this involves betting against them beating the spread. Do not place a moneyline bet against the team that previously won by 15 or more points. You are not wagering that they will lose, you are wagering that they won’t beat the spread.
As you can see here, the Denver Nuggets beat the Sacramento Kings by 21 points. So in their next match we will bet against them beating the spread as illustrated below.
According to statistics, you have a 57.5% chance of winning this bet.
Tunnel Betting System
Using the tunnel betting system involves taking advantage of the different point markers set by different sportsbooks. It requires the use of two sportsbooks.
Look for an NBA match with a different total points marker for the same game. For example,
You can use this method with any over/under selection, so you could use it on over/under player or team props. You would bet on over with the site that lists the lower marker and under with the site with the higher number marker.
If one sportsbook lists the total line as over/under 215.5 and another sports betting site lists the same game with a total marker of over/under 223.5, then you can use this to your advantage.
You would bet that the game will finish over 215.5 points at the first sportsbook and that the game will finish under 223.5 at the second.
Regardless of the score, you will have at least one winning bet. You will have two successful bets if the total score falls between 215.5 and 223.5.
This system involves a lot of work because you need to scour multiple retail and offshore sportsbooks looking for a single match with a decent disparity between the total markers on each sportsbook.
Martingale Betting System
The martingale betting system is universal. It can be used in sports betting but also for blackjack and other casino table games. The idea is that you double your stake every time you lose. The ethos behind this is that when you do win, you will have won enough to cover all of your previous losses.
You must understand the limitations of your budget before embarking on a martingale betting strategy. Your stake will increase rapidly, and you could go months without a win. It only takes four losses for a $10 initial stake to become a stake of over $100.
This works much better with casino games where you can place the same bet at the same odds every single round. Whereas in sports betting this can be more difficult, and you need to find similar odds each time you double your bet.
Back-Back Betting System
This betting system relies on the difficulty of winning both matches in two back-to-back fixtures. Statistics suggest it is especially difficult to win the second game. Teams also fail to win the second game at different rates depending on multiple factors.
Teams on good form tend to lose their second match in a set of back-to-back fixtures at a rate 5% greater than their normal losing rate. Teams on bad form lose the second match at a rate of 11% more than their average. Teams playing the second match at a rival’s house will lose at an increased rate of 18%.
Bounce Back Betting System
This system is based on statistics that suggest a poor offensive performance from a team is usually followed by a good offensive performance. When a team has a home fixture after a poor offensive performance, they surpass their projected points nearly two-thirds of the time. The data provided by Bet Labs does not define poor offensive performance.
Therefore, this system suggests placing a team prop over/under wager on the home team scoring over the marker number of points.
Three-In-Four Betting System
We found that matches involving teams playing their third match in four nights regularly surpass the total points line.
An explanation of this phenomenon is that defending requires more physical exertion so teams are defending with less intensity. Therefore the final total score is significantly higher if they are playing their third game in four nights.
This is encapsulated perfectly using these results from the NBA website.
As you can see, the Bulls played their third match in four days on the Wednesday of the final week of February in 2024. This match managed to record a total score of over 255 points while the other matches finished with totals of 200 and 220. In both of the previous matches the Bulls conceded less than 120 but conceded over 120 in the third match. An over bet on this selection would have been successful.
D’Alembert Betting System
This system is a more conservative version of the Martingale system. They are both progressive systems that increase your stake after a losing bet. The D’Alembert system has a contingency for when you win.
In this system, you can decide the increments between each stake increase but for this example, we shall double like the Martingale system. So after each losing bet you double the stake and half your stake after each winning bet.
If you start with a $10 stake that you lose, your next bet would be $20, if this loses, your next bet is $40. If that bet wins, then your next bet is halved to revert back to a $20 stake.
It can be a more manageable way of applying the Martingale system.
Top Tips For Success When Placing Bets on NBA
Follow this advice to have more success when betting on the NBA.
1. Develop Your Bankroll Management Strategy
Make sure you are managing your money correctly. It is fine to have the occasional splurge, but over the long term, it is better to have a strategy that helps you manage your funds.
2. Straight Bets vs Parlays
Having the occasional spurious wager on an outlandish parlay bet is fine, but other types of bets will provide more success.
3. Bet on Early Morning Line Odds
Sportsbooks use the behavior of other bettors across multiple sportsbooks to inform the odds provided. When the odds are first listed, this information is not available. Therefore, odds are at their most advantageous and volatile when first released.
4. Use Different Channels to Track Player Updates and Injury News
Use the wealth of data provided by the news, social media, sports magazines, sports magazine programs, and even sportsbooks to help inform your bets. If you are up to date with the latest information, you are better armed to place successful bets.
5. Team Totals Strategy – Use Pace as Your Guide
Consider how teams prefer to play when making over/under bets. Some teams like to run down the clock before they start firing, while others will go gung-ho from the start. Make sure you account for these differences.
6. Don’t Force Your Bets Against Strong Lines
Do not force yourself to find a bet. Every team will play at least 82 matches across the season. If you cannot find a decent bet today, wait for the next set of odds to drop.
7. Avoid Chasing Your Losses And Tilt Betting
Gambling responsibly means never chasing your losses. It is this reactive behavior that can help you develop problem gambling habits.
Tilt betting is a term that comes from poker. It refers to overly aggressive betting as a result of a heightened mental state. We recommend you avoid betting emotionally.
How to Place a Bet on an NBA Game
These simple steps will help you place your first wager on the NBA.
1. Decide which sports betting site you will use
You can find top-notch sports betting sites on our website. Once you have found a sportsbook you like, head to their website, and click sign-up.
2. Sign Up And Deposit Funds
Complete the registration form and confirm the details. You can now browse the website as an account holder and make a deposit. Head to the cashier and choose your preferred method. Enter an amount, any bonus code you may have, and confirm.
3. Choose Your Favorite NBA Market
Click basketball in the list of sports, and choose NBA. You will see a list of upcoming matches with moneyline, spread, and total markets alongside. Click any match to browse further markets.
4. Choose Teams or Players and Place Your Bet
Click the odds of any bet you would like to place to add it to your betting slip. You can browse the player props and team props in the further markets. Type out your stake in the betting slip and click place bet.
Check Out the Latest NBA News
BasketballInsiders is a fantastic place to keep up to date with the NBA. We are quick with the latest news from courtside and behind the scenes.
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NBA Betting Strategy FAQs
What are the steps to bet on NBA games online?
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