NBA AM: The Problem With Dwight Howard

The Problem with Dwight Howard: By now you have likely heard at least some incarnation of the trade rumors involving Houston’s Dwight Howard. There have been reports that he’s unhappy, that the Rockets have explored trading him and that at some point he’ll be dealt.

All of that my very well turn out to be true. However, the problem with those notions is that it’s based on a fundamental problem: NBA free agency.

Before we dig too far into the point, let’s clear a few things up. No one in Houston is happy. To lay all of the unrest on Howard radically marginalizes the severity of the discord around the team.

Howard has not asked for a trade, has not expressed an interest in a trade and, for the time being, is focused solely on righting his own game and trying to help his team get out of the rut they are in.

Howard does have a $23.282 million player option in his contract that he is likely going to pass on accepting, making him an unrestricted free agent in July. This is not at all a surprise to the Rockets; it was clearly articulated that Dwight would enter free agency in 2016 – that was part of the deal that got him to Houston and everyone has known from his first day with the Rockets that on July 1, Howard would be seeking a new deal. The option year was injury insurance and assuming Howard finishes the season healthy, he’ll be a free agent.

The problem teams in the NBA face with pending free agents, especially unrestricted ones, is the current NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement does not offer much of an incentive for players to stay in their current deals by way of an extension, so teams have a risk of losing a player for nothing in return.

Extensions are additional years added on to the current deal, and those new year values are based on the current year. In Howard’s case, if he hits unrestricted free agency he becomes eligible for 35 percent of the salary cap, which could be a starting salary as much as $30 million in the first year depending on where the actual 2016 salary cap is set. That’s roughly $6.8 million more than his option year.

This is where things get compelling. If you are the Houston Rockets, do you want to invest what could be four years and more than $120 million into a 30-year-old Howard, who is posting some of the worst numbers of his career?

The Rockets don’t have to bring Howard up to other teams when they call about trades. The other teams know exactly what Houston is facing, hence the rumors.

One of the things that gets lost in the trade rumors that make it to the media is that both sides of a conversation are savvy deal makers. It’s pretty rare that one team is shopping a singular player. The conversation is usually more vague and exploratory in a ‘what are you guys looking to do’ kind of way.

In Houston’s case, teams smell blood in the water so when the Rockets come calling – as they have done with virtually every team in the league – the other side tends to swing for the fences, knowing that Houston has to do something to salvage their season. Here is where Howard’s name comes up.

Houston is looking for a change. They have called on the likes of New Orleans’ Ryan Anderson and Phoenix’s Markieff Morris, but both teams want a lot more than the roster parts Houston would be willing to part with.

As the Rockets work the system to find a deal, those around the league understand what’s playing out.

There is a sense that for Houston to really make a major transaction they’ll have to move something of real value and Howard still carries tremendous value. Factor in his pending free agency and that’s where the stories come from. If Houston is middling in the Western Conference come the trade deadline, will they really stay committed to Howard?

Today that answer is absolutely, however tomorrow could yield a very different answer.

Given where the Rockets are in the standings, they would be foolish not to at least listen to incoming offers on everyone on the roster, but listening to an offer is a very different thing than having a willingness to deal on that offer.

The Rockets are not trying to trade Howard, that’s not where they are starting conversations, but there is a sense that eventually the Rockets will have to make a decision and that’s where the belief that Howard will ultimately be traded stems from.

It’s not because he’s unhappy. It’s not because no one in Houston is happy with where the team is at or how the team is playing. It’s not because of his contract option. It’s not because Howard isn’t playing at the top of his game. The Rockets may have no choice on Howard for all of those reasons combined and, for the biggest reason of all, he could return the most real value to a Rockets team that’s clearly going backwards.

If the Rockets had a clear cut advantage in free agency, trading Howard might not be a factor at all. But when you seriously survey the situation the ability to lose Howard for nothing, it puts him at the top of other teams wish lists – especially if there is a sense Howard would sign a new deal wherever he may land.

The Rockets are not trying to trade Howard; the harsh reality is they may have very little choice given all of the factors combined, especially if they want to turn things around.

That’s the real problem with Dwight Howard.

The Problem with Hassan Whiteside: While we are on the subject of trade rumors involving starting centers, Miami’s Hassan Whiteside has found his name in the mix as it relates to rumors involving Houston’s Dwight Howard and Sacramento’s DeMarcus Cousins.

Both Houston and Sacramento have done their very best to squash the idea that either of their big men are available in trade, and the HEAT have done the same with Whiteside.

Denying trade rumors is a big part of December and just like the rumors themselves, denials should be taken with a grain of salt, because what else would a team say?

For Miami, they face an interesting predicament with Whiteside since they do not hold Bird Rights on his free agency, meaning to retain him beyond this season the HEAT would have to use their cap space to re-sign him.

Whiteside was drafted in 2010 by the Sacramento Kings and was ultimately waived. He’s had a few stops in the NBA, mostly as a camp invite until he landed in Miami last year and exploded into one of the better centers in the NBA. As a result of his journey, Whiteside will not be a restricted free agent in July, he will be unrestricted and looking for the largest contract he can receive.

The HEAT could have the money for Whiteside depending on how they manage their cap holds and pending free agents, but with a starting salary expected to be north of $20 million on a multi-year deal, the HEAT have a tough choice to make. Do they look to lock up Whiteside and call it an offseason, or do they look to let Whiteside walk and spend that free agent money on another higher profile player?

The HEAT have eyes for Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant, and while that may be a pipe dream, they won’t have cap space to make an offer to Durant and keep Whiteside without a sign and trade or someone taking radically less than market value, which in Whiteside’s case is not going to happen.

As things stand right now the HEAT have what looks to be $48 million in guaranteed contracts. Assuming the salary cap comes in at the rumored $92 million, the HEAT would reasonably have about $44 million to play with. On the surface that seems like more than enough room to go after another player and pay Whiteside, but Dwyane Wade will carry a cap hold worth $30 million while Luol Deng will carry a $13.19 million hold. Assuming the HEAT renounce Deng, they still have to get Wade signed or renounced before they’d have cap cash to spent on Whiteside.

If the HEAT hang on to Wade, his new number eats into the $44 million in space, then the HEAT would have to ink Whiteside, leaving Miami with what could be less than $10 million to flesh out what could be six to seven roster spots.

The good news for Miami is that they have a level playing field on re-signing Whiteside. The bad news is they may not have the ability to do a lot more than sign Whiteside this summer (if they go that route) given the lack of Bird Rights.

The other problem for the HEAT is if they have decide that Whiteside isn’t going to be worth the money next summer, his $981,348 contract this year won’t return much value in trade all by itself.

Miami is saying all the right things about Whiteside, but given his situation, the HEAT might be better suited exploring other options in free agency, unless Wade is willing to give the HEAT a massive discount in July, which did not play out well last summer.

Unless Miami is willing to pack in a ton of other roster pieces, finding a trade that really returns value for the HEAT might be harder than you’d think for a player of Whiteside’s caliber because any team that acquires him would face the same Bird Right problems and would need cap space to sign him, which then bring up the notion of why give up assets for a player you have no advantage in re-signing in July?

That is the problem with Hassan Whiteside, as favorable as his contract seems today, it’s going to be a challenge to re-sign him and improve the roster.

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