Houston Rockets Will Only Get Better

As the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers rest up for their 2015 NBA Finals showdown, in their wake, they have each left a few respectable teams wondering what went wrong with their season and why they couldn’t outmatch the champion from their respective conference.

For as long as we can remember, it seemed that the Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks were on a collision course for the right to represent the Eastern Conference.

But the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference? They were another story all together.

It is easy to forget that there were some who wondered whether they would even make the playoffs after they lost Chandler Parsons and came close, but ultimately failed, to land Chris Bosh last summer. However, they won 56 games, secured the NBA’s third-best record and advanced to the Conference Finals.

Was their blast off an aberration, or are the Rockets here to stay?

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Over the course of his tenure as the general manager of the Rockets, Daryl Morey’s teams have always seemed to overachieve. Over the years, despite injuries to Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Kevin Martin and other principle pieces, Morey’s teams have always seemed to find a way. Amazingly, despite lacking a fully healthy and functioning “superstar” for quite some time, since he assumed the front office in Houston in 2007, the team has not had a losing season.

Without question, his finest work was his riskiest. Long before the world knew of the impressive basketball talent that James Harden possessed, Morey saw something in the young guard and decided he’d try to build his franchise around the bearded prodigy. Along the way, Morey made some controversial decisions, which included amnestying the still productive Luis Scola and opting to allow valuable contributors to walk away—just for the opportunity to sign Dwight Howard.

It should come as no surprise then that the Rockets overachieved again this past season. It would seem that Morey’s teams simply have a propensity for that.

Most importantly, as the team moves forward, they will do so with the knowledge that their salary cap situation is in good shape.

This summer, the team must make important decisions on unrestricted free agents Jason Terry, Corey Brewer and Josh Smith, as well as restricted free agents Patrick Beverley and K.J. McDaniels (so long as the Rockets tender them qualifying offers).

As of now, along with Harden and Howard, Trevor Ariza, Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas and Clint Capela are among the eight players who have guaranteed money owed to them for the 2015-16 season. Those guarantees represent about $55 million—a number that could give Morey’s team the flexibility to get creative as it relates to acquiring players this summer. Depending on how the team resolves the situations involving Terry, Brewer and Smith, having cap space is certainly a possibility, especially if the Rockets decide to try to move their 2015 first-round pick (18th overall).

In the coming years, with the well-documented cap increases, the Rockets will likely find themselves as one of the few teams in the league that can offer young players a roster that still has substantial upside and two superstars upon which a solid foundation has been built.

As Morey tries to determine what is next for his team, if there is one thing he has consistently shown us, it is that he knows how to build a winning basketball team.

So rest assured, the Rockets will continue to progress. It doesn’t take an advanced stats genius to realize that has been the hallmark of Morey’s tenure. In much the same manner, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Harden is certainly a championship-caliber contributor.

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Since arriving in Houston, with the pressure of his freshly-minted five-year maximum salaried contract, the spotlight has been on Harden. In it, he has basked.

Last summer, after losing out on Bosh and seeing Parsons depart, Harden responded by declaring that the Rockets would be a contender so long as he and Howard were playing at a high level.

Amazingly, Harden backed up that optimistic forecast. The Rockets ended up as the second seed in one of the most competitive Western Conference races we have ever seen, even while missing Howard for 41 of the season’s 82 games.

As a player, Harden certainly has his flaws. Perhaps out of necessity, he has developed the ability to create his own shots and opportunities off of the dribble, but perhaps to the detriment of his ability to orchestrate and serve as the master of a more free-flowing offensive attack marked by ball and player movement. For a great part of his tenure as a member of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Harden was the secondary ball handler behind Russell Westbrook. Certainly, it was a role in which he flourished.

What Harden has shown is an ability to put a team on his shoulders and carry them offensively. As he closes in on his 26th birthday, threading the needle on interior passes and being a better orchestrator out of pick-and-roll sets are two areas in which he must improve. Defensively, his short comings are well-observed, but it is difficult to complain about the results when the Rockets won 57 games this past season and Harden finished second in the Most Valuable Player Award voting.

If surrounded by shooters and plus-defenders, Harden can be the fuel behind the Rockets’ flight. The 13 turnovers he committed in the team’s season-ending Game 5 loss against the Western Conference champion Warriors will likely leave a mark on Harden’s legacy if the Rockets are unable to ever come any closer to a championship, but it will ultimately shrivel into a meaningless footnote if the team accomplishes more going forward.

This is certainly something that is within the realm of possibility, especially if Howard can regain his form.

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We saw flashes of Howard’s dominance in the postseason. He recorded a double-double in 10 of the 12 playoff games his team played this past season, but overall, he’s still searching for the mobility and explosiveness that saw him rise to prominence as a member of the Orlando Magic.

Since 2009—arguably the height of his performance in the NBA—Howard has fallen victim to a number of injuries and, amazingly, has just completed his 11th professional season. What has occurred with Howard, however, is the overall underrating of the skills and talents that he does possess on the basketball court. His messy divorce with the Magic and Los Angeles Lakers have each reduced his likability to the point where the basketball viewing public sees Howard and his contributions on the floor through a warped lens. It is difficult to argue that he is not still among the top three centers in the league when fully healthy.

The question that Morey and his front office must figure out, though, is whether Howard regaining his once dominant form is still a likely scenario, and if it is not, what they can do to otherwise strengthen what seems to be a team on the rise.

For them, it begins this summer.

Although Harden handles the ball primarily, the team looked noticeably different on the offensive end without Beverley. Although Pablo Prigioni did an admirable job of serving as an efficient half court point guard, this probably represents the team’s biggest area of need.

Mo Williams, Aaron Brooks, J.J. Barea, Jameer Nelson and Rodney Stuckey are among the guards who could help the team.

Whether the Rockets pursue them or instead opt to chase lesser known names who Morey believes can be a plus-contributor remains to be seen, but one thing we have seen, is his ability to maximize both the resources and talent at his disposal.

Lost in the Rockets’ rather unceremonious five-game ouster at the hands of the Warriors is the fact that they both proved themselves to be a mentally tougher group than many gave them credit for in erasing a 3-1 series deficit against the L.A. Clippers and that, in many regards, they weren’t even supposed to be here.

Moral victories are a thing that seldom has its place in professional sports, but with the talent the Rockets lost last summer, the thriving of Harden and the overall success of the team with a less than healthy Howard, it is clear that Houston overachieved.

With a fairly flexible ledger, astute management and two young superstars who still have a lot of tread on their respective tires—Houston has a lot of things.

A problem? I’m not exactly sure if that’s one of them.