Jackson Holland is an experienced sports writer and handicapper based in Pennsylvania. He worked part-time at a racetrack and casino while majoring in English Literature at college, and that inspired a passion for gambling. Holland spent a decade as a journalist working for a variety of regional newspapers before joining the sports betting industry. He writes long-form betting guides for Basketball Insiders, Augusta Free Press and various other publications.
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Following his graduation with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick redirected his focus from conventional stocks and bonds to the world of sports team performance investments. He employs a unique blend of advanced statistics and historical data to construct intricate sports investment models, pinpointing value opportunities and consistently yielding profits. Nick's contributions extend beyond a single platform, as his work can be discovered on outlets such as Pistons Powered, Winners And Whiners, and numerous other publications.
All posts by Nick RaffoulThe country’s finest three-year-olds will battle for Kentucky Derby glory at Churchill Downs on May 6. Racebooks have already released odds on “The Run for the Roses,” and Kentucky Derby picks are in high demand.
This page will provide Kentucky Derby expert picks on the race winner, along with picks for exotic markets such as the exacta and trifecta. You will find the best available Kentucky Derby odds at leading racebooks and learn more about betting on this eagerly anticipated race.
Our Top 3 Picks for the Kentucky Derby
These are our top picks for the 2023 Kentucky Derby:
Pick 1: Forte to Win the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Any handicapper will tell you that Forte has a favorite’s chance. A wide draw means he won’t be squeezed out on the rails whilst cornering the bends at Churchill Downs, and no other horse in this year’s line-up has anything like the multiple Grade I successes on his resume. Forte is the one the whole field has to beat.
Pick 2: Tapit Trice to Place in the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Todd Pletcher also has Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns drawn low in the race. While that puts them at a disadvantage tactically, with the latter perhaps the pace angle in the race, it can be overcome to get into the top two. The battling qualities Tapit Trice showed when winning the Blue Grass Stakes means he will be up for the fight in any rough riding that might happen.
Pick 3: Angel Of Empire to Show in the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Outside of the Pletcher trio, Brad Cox has four in the line-up with Angel Of Empire the clear pick of that quartet. Gates 1 and 2 don’t do Hit Show and Verifying any favors, yet a wider draw for an impressive Arkansas Derby winner means he can keep tabs on the favorite Forte, who is outside him. Angel Of Empire should make the show minimum.
2023 Kentucky Derby Favorites
Forte is the current favorite in the Kentucky Derby odds after blowing his rivals away in the Grade I Florida Derby earlier in the spring. However, he is expected to face stern competition from the stable companions Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns, plus Angel Of Empire and globetrotting Japanese horses Derma Sotogake and Continuar. These are the odds on the main contenders available at some of our top betting sites:
All prices quoted correct at the time of writing.Horse BetOnline XBet MyBookie BetUS Bovada Forte +300 +250 +250 +250 +300 Tapit Trice +500 +450 +450 +450 +550 Angel Of Empire +800 +600 +600 +600 +600 Derma Sotogake +1000 +900 +900 +900 +1000 Kingsbarns +1200 +1000 +1000 +1000 +1200 Verifying +1500 +1600 +1600 +1600 +1800 Mage +1500 +1400 +1400 +1400 +1500 Two Phil’s +1200 +1600 +1600 +1400 +1200 Skinner +2000 +1400 +1400 +1400 +1400 Hit Show +3000 +2500 +2500 +2500 +3000 Confidence Game +2000 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2000 Disarm +3000 +2500 +2500 +2500 +3300 Reincarnate +5000 +2500 +3000 +3300 +3000 Rocket Can +3000 +2500 +2500 +2500 +3300 Mandarin Hero +2000 +2000 +2000 +1600 +1600 Cyclone Mischief +3000 +4000 +4000 +4000 +4000 King Russell +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +6600 Jace’s Road +5000 +3300 +3300 +3300 +5000 Raise Cain +5000 +6600 +6600 +6600 +5000 Sun Thunder +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 Practical Move N/R N/R N/R N/R N/R Lord Miles N/R N/R N/R N/R N/R Continuar N/R N/R N/R N/R N/R Basketball Insiders’ 2023 Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
We have analyzed every Kentucky Derby contender in exhaustive detail. These are our horse racing expert picks:
Our 2023 Kentucky Derby Pick to Win
It is hard to look past Forte, who has leading claims after proving himself at the top level. Although Todd Pletcher has three from his barn, the favorite is the top of Kentucky Derby 2023 picks for many handicappers and experts.
Forte became one of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders with an immersive victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in the fall. He’s since won at Gulfstream Park twice, coming through his final prep in the Florida Derby with ease.
Our top pick:
- Forte to win the Kentucky Derby @ +300 with BetOnline
- A $10 bet would return $40 and make $30 profit
2023 Kentucky Derby Top 3 Picks
Our top 3 picks for the Derby are Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel Of Empire. All have a great chance to be in the first three, but do need to back up their Grade I successes. Tapit Trice hails from the same barn as the favorite, so Todd Pletcher has two major contenders for the big race this time around.
Our picks:
- Tapit Trice to win the Kentucky Derby @ +600 with Bovada
- Angel Of Empire to win the Kentucky Derby @ +800 with BetOnline
2023 Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks
From those handicapping the Kentucky Derby this year, the longshots in the futures betting do have quite a lot to find with the favorite and others fancied by oddsmakers. Raise Cain was nearest at the finish in fifth under a waiting ride in the Blue Grass Stakes.
William Mott saw his Country House awarded the race in 2019. He’ll be hoping that Rocket Can, another interesting longshot in the Kentucky Derby 2023 picks, can be first past the post this time.
Our picks:
- Raise Cain to win the Kentucky Derby @ +6600 with MyBookie
- Rocket Can to win the Kentucky Derby @ +2000 with Xbet
2023 Kentucky Derby Exotic Picks
The Kentucky Derby is the most important horse racing event of the year, so everyone is looking for picks. Most of them focus on the race winner, but you may also be interested in exotic picks. The term “exotic” covers all markets apart from the win, place, and show, such as the exacta, trifecta, superfecta, quinella, and so on.
Exacta Picks
We are going for Forte to finish ahead of Tapit Trice in our Kentucky Derby exacta picks. An exacta requires you to predict the race winner and the runner-up in that exact order – hence the name. You can alternatively go for a quinella, where you pick the top two in any order.
Our picks:
- 1st: Forte
- 2nd: Tapit Trice
Trifecta Picks
We have Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel Of Empire in our Kentucky Derby 2023 trifecta picks. This exotic bet is more complicated than the exacta. It is notoriously difficult to make Kentucky Derby trifecta picks, and it requires leaving out a lot of highly-rated contenders.
A trifecta requires you to pick the winner, the runner-up, and the third-place horse in that exact order. You can alternatively go for a boxed trifecta to hedge your bets a little.
Our picks:
- 1st: Forte
- 2nd: Tapit Trice
- 3rd: Angel Of Empire
Superfecta Picks
It is time to deliver our superfecta picks for the 2023 Kentucky Derby. This is even trickier than the trifecta because you need to specify the first four horses that will cross the finish line.
We are going for Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel Of Empire, and Japanese horse rider Derma Sotogake in our Kentucky Derby 2023 Superfecta picks.
Our picks:
- 1st: Forte
- 2nd: Tapit Trice
- 3rd: Angel Of Empire
- 4th: Derma Sotogake
Super Hi-Five Picks
Getting all the horses to make a top-five finish in Kentucky Derby 2023 picks is the ultimate test of handicapping. It’s hard enough pulling off an exacta, so you’ll be very lucky to win a Super Hi-Five.
Our experts aren’t daunted by this challenge, however, and select Kingsbarns from a low draw to get into the first five. Also trained by Pletcher like Forte and Tapit Trice, this Uncle Mo colt has a low draw to overcome out of Gate 6 but may be taken into the race by his barn buddy in the adjacent stall.
Our picks:
- 1st: Forte
- 2nd: Tapit Trice
- 3rd: Angel Of Empire
- 4th: Derma Sotogake
- 5th: Kingsbarns
Best Kentucky Derby Betting Sites
It is important to choose a betting site that offers generous fixed odds, quick payouts, great bonuses, and a strong all-around user experience. We reviewed each racebook and decided that these are the best Kentucky derby betting sites in 2023:
Best Kentucky Derby Betting Sites
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Claim Offer Top Kentucky Derby Betting Sites Reviewed
You’ve seen our recommendations for the top Kentucky Derby betting sites. Now though, it’s time to find out how our five best brands of all reached this lofty position.
1. BetOnline – #1 Destination for Kentucky Derby Betting
While it certainly faced stiff competition, we were confident in making BetOnline our top pick on this list. Simply put, it delivers everything you could hope for from a modern-day racebook.
The sport of kings is given its own section here, complete with excellent racing coverage. The odds are highly competitive, both for straight-up Race Winner bets and other bet types, and the user interface is extremely straightforward. BetOnline also provides appealing welcome and ongoing bonuses, and – should you encounter any issues – you’ll find excellent customer support close at hand.
Pros:
- Excellent all-round Kentucky Derby betting site
- Intuitive user interface
- Plenty of other racing markets
- Highly competitive odds
Cons:
- Lack of a downloadable betting app
2. BetNow – Receive Valuable Rewards For Your Kentucky Derby Betting
While not as seasoned as our past couple of brands, BetNow still has a good amount of experience behind it, having launched in 2015. As a Kentucky Derby racebook, in fact, this puts it right in the sweet spot – it’s had enough time to iron out its flaws, but has plenty to offer new bettors.
This desire to attract customers is most clearly shown in the excellent special offers. Most notably, BetNow’s loyalty scheme is one of the best around, providing you with useful and appealing rewards in exchange for wagering on the Kentucky Derby and other races. There’s also a very good welcome offer, plus a cash rebate deal on racing. BetNow also provides fantastic coverage of the Derby, offering various exotic bet types in addition to the usual options.
Pros:
- Exceptionally good loyalty scheme
- Cash rebate for horse racing
- Exotic bets available for Kentucky Derby
- Solid track record
Cons:
- No mobile app for racing betting
3. Bovada – Racebook With an Excellent Track Record
If you’re looking for a proven and reliable Kentucky Derby betting site, look no further. The Bovada brand first launched in 2004, and has been serving racing bettors online since 2011.
Even now, it’s still arguably the safest place to get your digital Kentucky Derby bets down. In addition to its wealth of experience, Bovada is fully licensed and regulated, and proudly boasts of both its security features and certificates. It also provides plenty of markets for both the big race and other events throughout the calendar, of course, and gives you excellent value on your picks.
Pros:
- Highly impressive track record
- Extremely safe place to wager on the Kentucky Derby
- Virtual horse racing also provided
- Downloadable mobile app for on-the-go Derby betting
Cons:
- No live streaming of any racing
4. Everygame – Reliable Brand With Appealing Welcome Offer
Along with Bovada, Everygame has arguably the most impressive track record of any brand on our list. It’s one of the longest-running online sportsbooks around in fact, having accepted racing bettors and other customers since the early 2000’s.
As such, this is another extremely safe pick for your Kentucky Derby betting. It covers the event in style, particularly through the quality of its odds, although you will find more bet types elsewhere. Still, Everygame more than makes up for this in other key areas. These include an extremely user-friendly interface, friendly and responsive customer support, and a highly appealing welcome offer which has been neatly split into multiple parts.
Pros:
- Lengthy track record
- User-friendly platform
- Very good Kentucky Derby betting odds
- Exceptional customer support
Cons:
- More racing bet types available elsewhere
5. BetUS – Get Useful Advice For Your Kentucky Derby Picks
There’s plenty of advice out there for your Kentucky Derby predictions, of course, including in this very article. With BetUS, however, you don’t even need to leave the sportsbook in order to get them. Insead, BetUS provides informed and useful picks, for the Derby and other races, completely free of charge.
Beyond that, BetUS also offers a generally excellent racebook. There are multiple welcome offers to choose between here, depending on whether you wish to use cryptos or USD. Further value is also delivered through both a VIP program and referral scheme, and you also get a nice selection of regular and exotic bet types to choose between.
Pros:
- Free Kentucky Derby predictions
- Very good loyalty scheme
- Regular and exotic betting options
- Referral scheme benefits you and others
Cons:
- Relatively high minimum deposit amount
5 Key Trends That Can Help You Pick the Winner
Now that you know our 2023 Kentucky Derby predictions for this year’s big race and our top places to wager, we also asked expert handicappers to study stats and trends. While there are no guarantees these find you the winner, they do help you make better decisions as a bettor. These are our top 5 key trends:
Trials to Follow
The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park is one of the best prep races, producing 30% (six) of Kentucky Derby winners since 2001. Five of those were from 2006 onwards and three since 2013.
Don’t ignore the Santa Anita Derby in California either. Three winners and a second from that race have gone on to glory at Churchill Downs since 2012.
Favorites
If you want to bet the Kentucky Derby favorite, then since 2008 you would’ve had a 50-50 chance of that horse winning. The Churchill Downs race used to have a reputation as a graveyard for market leaders.
Prep Race Winners
While not all Kentucky Derby winners were victorious in their last prep run, a majority were rather than not. Nine of the last 12 successful (75%) at Churchill Downs scored on their final start.
Post Position
A low draw and post position can be the kiss of death if our Kentucky Derby trends are any indicator. Almost two-thirds (64%) of winners this century came out of gate 8 or higher. No Churchill Downs winner in that time jumped out of a gate number lower than 4 either.
Trainers & Jockeys
John Velazquez has three wins in the Kentucky Derby from the saddle since 2011. He rides Reincarnate this year.
With Bob Baffert banned from training horses right now, Todd Pletcher and Doug O’Neill have both won this race twice since 2010. Pletcher saddles three from his barn this year in the favorite Forte, Tapit Trice, and Kingsbarns.
Where to Find Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
We have highlighted our top 2023 Kentucky Derby free picks on this page, but we understand that you may want a second – and perhaps a third and fourth – opinion.
You can find Kentucky Derby expert picks at KentuckyDerby.com.
How to Make Kentucky Derby Predictions and Picks
It is fun and potentially very profitable to make your own Kentucky Derby predictions and picks. If you want to learn how to bet on the Kentucky Derby, check out our dedicated guide. When handicapping the race, you can focus on five key criteria:
- Speed Figures | Check out the speed figures from Beyer, Brisnet, and Timeform US to see who has impressed this year.
- Class | It is important to consider how well the various Kentucky Derby contenders have performed against the country’s leading three-year-olds this year. The Arkansas Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes, the Santa Anita Derby, the Florida Derby, and the Wood Memorial are the key prep races.
- Post Positions | When the post positions are announced, check who has been handed a favorable draw based on historical data.
- Pace and Style | Try to anticipate the pace at which the race will develop and whether it will favor front-runners, stalkers, or closers.
- Staying Power | Distance capability is a crucial component for any Kentucky Derby winner. Try to figure out which runners can flourish during the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby.
Remember to claim bonuses too, as you can benefit from lots of horse racing free bets on the race, giving you more scope to test out your predictions.
Picks and Parlays for the Kentucky Derby
A parlay allows you to predict the winners of multiple races and combine them into a single bet. You could specify which horse will win the 2023 Kentucky Derby along with three other races taking place that day, for instance.
It is difficult to achieve a successful parlay, but you can earn huge payouts if you guess correctly. The profit from each correct pick rolls onto the next leg, meaning the overall payout compounds. However, the house edge increases with each leg you add too, so you should proceed with caution.
More on Horse Racing Betting…
If you would like to learn more about betting on the Kentucky Derby, check out these pages:
- Best Kentucky Derby betting sites – A guide to the best racebooks for Kentucky Derby bettors.
- Kentucky Derby odds – An overview of how to read the odds on the Kentucky Derby contenders.
- How to bet on the Kentucky Derby – A detailed guide to placing a wager on the Kentucky Derby.
- Best racebooks – Discover the leading online betting sites for horse racing.
- Horse racing free bets – A guide to the free bet bonuses that racebooks offer.
- Horse racing betting apps – Learn how to place quick, convenient mobile wagers on the big race.
- Parimutuel betting – An explanation of how horse racing payouts are calculated.
- Pool betting – Discover the process used by racebooks to calculate dividends for winning bettors.
- Virtual horse racing – Delve into the weird and wonderful world of betting on virtual horse races.
FAQs
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