NBA

Game 1 Preview: Rockets vs. Mavericks

Harden_Howard_2015

#2 – Houston Rockets

Houston went 3-1 against Dallas on the year, but outscored the Mavericks by only four points total. The key here, however, was Dwight Howardโ€™s availability โ€“ he missed three of these contests and was limited in the fourth. Howard will be a force down low; an expected heavy dose of pick-and-roll with James Harden and Howard may keep Tyson Chandler from affecting as much of the game defensively as he often does. Howard will also provide a much-needed dose of interior defense against an attacking presence like Monta Ellis.

There are justifiable questions as to how Hardenโ€™s somewhat predictable game translates to the pace and intensity of the playoffs, but itโ€™s hard to see him being too exposed against the Mavs. Unlike other possible Rockets opponents Memphis (Tony Allen) or San Antonio (Kawhi Leonard), Dallas lacks a shutdown perimeter defender to force Harden outside his comfort zone. Lineups featuring both Chandler and Dirk Nowitzki will have trouble defending four-out Houston units with the likes of Terrence Jones, even if the Mavs know exactly whatโ€™s coming with repeated Harden attacks. The loss of Donatas Motiejunas hurts for Houston, but not enough to slow down their offense too badly against Dallas.

The Rockets have been low-key excellent defensively all year, and how they choose to match up with Nowitzki will be interesting. Jones is mobile and can potentially bother Dirk pick-and-pops, and may see extended time if he can do enough to bother Nowitzki in the high post. Howard may see duty also, as the damage Chandler can do against Jones is likely limited.

#7 – Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs have sputtered into the playoffs after a torrid start to the year, particularly offensively. They went just 16-14 over their final 30 games, and were just 21st in the NBA for per-possession net rating in this time.

Rajon Rondo hasnโ€™t been beneficial at all for Dallas after a midseason trade, and his total inability to space the floor will empower a Houston defense thatโ€™s been leaning heavily on these sorts of opponent weaknesses with success all year long. Heโ€™ll have to truly return to his form of postseasons past to be a positive on the court, which seems unlikely despite his comments recently to that effect.

How Chandler Parsons fares will be important for the Mavs; itโ€™s tough to see them posing a legitimate challenge to Houston if he canโ€™t thoroughly outplay Trevor Ariza. He shot nearly 40 percent from deep in the four matchups with the Rockets this year on nearly six attempts per game, and the Mavs need him at this level again. They may find small units with Parsons at the four is their best chance at goosing the offense if they get down a big number at any point.

But really, for Dallas to have a puncherโ€™s chance at an upset, they need Playoff Dirk. Nowitzki has seemingly been saving his legs for the postseason, and when heโ€™s on his game, Houston has no effective matchup for him defensively. He can override Rondoโ€™s lack of spacing and spread things out for Ellis to get to the hoop, and could at least keep things interesting if heโ€™s in peak form.

Who Wins Game 1?

The Rockets take Game 1 in routine fashion.

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Jeff Hawkins
Sports Editor

Jeff Hawkins is an award-winning sportswriter with more than four decades in the industry (print and digital media). A freelance writer/stay-at-home dad since 2008, Hawkins started his career with newspaper stints in Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Upstate New York and Illinois, where he earned the 2004 APSE first-place award for column writing (under 40,000 circulation). As a beat writer, he covered NASCAR Winston Cup events at NHIS (1999-2003), the NHL's Chicago Blackhawks (2003-06) and the NFL's Carolina Panthers (2011-12). Hawkins penned four youth sports books, including a Michael Jordan biography. Hawkins' main hobbies include mountain bike riding, 5k trail runs at the Whitewater Center in Charlotte, N.C., and live music.

All posts by Jeff Hawkins
Author photo
Jeff Hawkins Sports Editor

Jeff Hawkins is an award-winning sportswriter with more than four decades in the industry (print and digital media). A freelance writer/stay-at-home dad since 2008, Hawkins started his career with newspaper stints in Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Upstate New York and Illinois, where he earned the 2004 APSE first-place award for column writing (under 40,000 circulation). As a beat writer, he covered NASCAR Winston Cup events at NHIS (1999-2003), the NHL's Chicago Blackhawks (2003-06) and the NFL's Carolina Panthers (2011-12). Hawkins penned four youth sports books, including a Michael Jordan biography. Hawkins' main hobbies include mountain bike riding, 5k trail runs at the Whitewater Center in Charlotte, N.C., and live music.

All posts by Jeff Hawkins