The Next Tier of 2016 NBA Free Agents

Yesterday, our Tommy Beer broke down the top 10 NBA free agents who are available this summer. Today, we continue our look at this free agency class with a breakdown of the next tier of notable players who are sure to garner interest. Let’s pick up where Tommy left off, with player No. 11.

11. Harrison Barnes, 24, Restricted Free Agent:

Is Barnes a player who simply benefited from playing alongside an extremely talented core of players in Golden State or is he someone who should be praised and ultimately rewarded handsomely for being willing to subjugate his game for the greater good of his team? That’s the multi-million dollar question that we are likely to have answered over the next week or two, but let’s just say Barnes certainly didn’t do himself any favors with his play during the Warriors’ Finals run.

Put simply, if you were on the proverbial fence about whether Barnes is a guy who can put all of those skills together enough to consistently lead a team as a “main guy” then you might have backed away from that notion. If you’re convinced he can be called upon to be one of the main focuses on a winning team, then you probably just saw that run of futility as a rough patch that all players endure. Either way, it will be very interesting to see if a team moves forward and at least makes Golden State’s decision more difficult with a max offer sheet (as the Philadelphia 76ers are reportedly considering). Will the Warriors hesitate to make Barnes their highest paid player at this stage?

12. Chandler Parsons, 27, Unrestricted Free Agent:

Parsons would probably have received a sizable offer from more than one team this summer if he hadn’t just missed 37 combined games over the past two seasons with the Dallas Mavericks due to multiple procedures on his right knee. As it stands, he’s actually coming off a very efficient year in which he averaged 13.7 points on 49.2 percent shooting from the floor and 41.4 percent from three-point range – even if his on-court time dipped to the second-lowest total of his career at just 29.5 minutes per contest.

It could make sense for Parsons to sign a two-to-three-year deal with slightly more money per season in order to enter free agency again prior to his 30th birthday and while still in his prime years; however, the security of the longest available deal could also be more appealing for a player with his recent injury history. Either way, it only takes one general manager who is willing to bank on his health in order to bring in a guy with his offensive skill set, and Parsons might even have several favorable options to choose from.

13. Dwight Howard, 30, Unrestricted Free Agent:

In perhaps the most mutual opt-out of a last year in the history of such contract options, Howard predictably walked away from the final $23 million on the deal he signed with Houston just a few summers ago. On the heels of leaving guaranteed money on the table to sign with the Rockets in the first place, needless to say, things still haven’t gone the way the former three-time Defensive Player of the Year (2009-11) expected the back end of his prime years to go. Now, with drama behind the scenes and Mike D’Antoni taking over as head coach, Howard’s time in Houston seems done.

The thing is, even at a stage when he is clearly past his physical prime, Howard turned in a solid 2015-16 season when you look at the traditional stats. He averaged 13.7 PPG, 11.8 RPG and 1.6 BPG in 71 games this year. When relatively healthy, Howard is still a strong enough defender and rim protector to help a good team under the right circumstances. The smart move would be to take a short-term (two-to-three years max) at a range close to $18-20 million with a contender, but Howard could also seek the largest payout available from one of the teams that strike out with the bigger names and still need to find an impact player.

14. Dirk Nowitzki, 38, Unrestricted Free Agent:

Nowitzki is coming off of his 18th season in the NBA, but the 2011 Finals MVP still managed to average 18.3 PPG and 6.5 RPG while shooting 36.8 percent from deep at a relatively efficient level in 75 games for the Mavericks last season. Time will tell how much truth there is to any rumor that has Nowitzki potentially moving on to a contender, but the fact that the future Hall of Famer is still the topic of such talk is impressive in itself. It would be a bit of a surprise to see Nowitzki wind up ending his career in anything other than a Mavericks uniform, but that doesn’t mean opposing GMs won’t at least try to pursue him over the next week or so.

15. Ryan Anderson, 28, Unrestricted Free Agent:

After a difficult 2014-15 from a personal perspective, Anderson was able to rebound and at least get things back together on a professional level in 2015-16. Anderson raised his three-point percentage from 34 percent back to a respectable 36.6 percent this past year and was also more active on the boards for the Pelicans (averaging six rebounds per contest). Both the Los Angeles Lakers and his hometown Sacramento Kings have been among the teams with rumored interest, but his 17 points per game and ability to space the floor might make a bit more sense on a contending team looking for a piece to add that dynamic or put them over the top rather than joining another rebuilding effort. Either way, Anderson should be paid very well, with some reports indicating he could sign a near-max deal.

16. Evan Fournier, 23, Restricted Free Agent:

The Orlando Magic already stated an intention to match any offer sheet Fournier signs with another team, and that’s because they not only realize his current value as a young shooter in this league, but also because there is a belief that he hasn’t even reached his full potential as a player. Newly hired head coach Frank Vogel doesn’t have an awful lot of shooters on that roster to begin with, so he should be the first one knocking on general manager Rob Hennigan’s door if negotiations somehow go awry with the 6’7 shooting guard. His 15.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 2.7 APG were each career-highs this past season and his 40 percent shooting on 4.9 three-point attempts per night put him in the running as one of the deadliest shooters on the market this summer. Orlando would be foolish to let him leave town.

17. Marvin Williams, 30, Unrestricted Free Agent:

Not only is the 11-year veteran a positive locker room presence, he can still play a bit of both forward positions in certain lineups and he’s coming off of a year in which he shot 40.2 percent from beyond the arc. He also gave the Hornets 11.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and one block per game in just 28.9 minutes per night.

Teams specifically looking for a veteran power forward who can space the floor could certainly do a lot worse than Williams. The Hornets could prioritize fellow free agent swingman Nicolas Batum when negotiations open on Friday, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see several potential suitors come calling for Williams over the first few days of free agency if Charlotte keeps him waiting too long.

18. Bismack Biyombo, 23, Unrestricted Free Agent:

Besides being suspended for the 2016-17 NBA opener due to an accumulation of flagrant foul points in the most recent postseason, absolutely nothing is guaranteed for Biyombo as he heads into free agency. After his Eastern Conference Finals performance, many of us were left wondering whether the results were due to a favorable matchup or a willingness by a hungry Biyombo to seize the moment? The Toronto Raptors have several free agents to prioritize – including the DeMar DeRozan – who are likely to rank ahead of their back-up center once the floodgates open on July 1.

Biyombo is coming off a year when he played somewhat sparingly throughout the regular season (22 minutes per contest), but was particularly impressive in the postseason when filling in for an injured Jonas Valancuinas. Against the eventual NBA champions, Biyombo averaged 6.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks while playing very good defense against that Cavaliers’ front line. The question will be, are there any GMs who believe Biyombo can duplicate such success over the long haul and when asked to play at that high level consistently? If so, another team could “price” Biyombo outside of where the Raptors are comfortable spending this summer.

19. Pau Gasol, 35, Unrestricted Free Agent:

Gasol recently opted out of the final year (and $7.7 million) of his deal with the Chicago Bulls, and is reportedly expected to receive interest from several teams including the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks. While Gasol may have the understandable defensive concerns you’d expect a 35-year-old veteran big man to have – especially with the growing trend of teams specifically looking to exploit slower bigs in the pick-and-roll and along the perimeter – that doesn’t mean a smart and talented team couldn’t find a way to capitalize on what he still brings to the table.

Beyond being widely considered a phenomenal teammate and locker-room presence, Gasol simply knows the game of basketball. He’s an excellent post and mid-post option, remains one of the league’s better passing big men and will still block a shot or two at the rim or from the weakside. Expect him to be on a contender and potentially back in the Western Conference this upcoming season.

20. Jordan Clarkson, 24, Restricted Free Agent:

Clarkson is at that crossroad that many young and improving players from bad teams tend to face, and that’s determining whether his production is solely – or, at least, mainly – a result of someone having to put up numbers on a bad team or if he is truly a burgeoning talent who still has room to grow as a player. Those who watched his games (beyond box score hunting) can tell you that while Clarkson is far from a complete player, he showed real signs of progress in year two for the Lakers.

Beyond the 15.5 points, four rebounds and 2.5 assists, Clarkson looked far more comfortable from deep (up to 34.7 percent from just 31.4 as a rookie) and started getting to the rim with regularity as the season wore on. Taking the next step as a defender is the next big challenge, but all Clarkson has to do is convince GMs that he has the ability and willingness to do so in order to receive a significant raise this summer.

Honorable Mention
Jeremy Lin, Festus Ezeli, Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Kent Bazemore, Jamal Crawford, Joakim Noah, Evan Turner, Luol Deng, J.R. Smith, Jared Sullinger. For a complete list of this summer’s free agents, click here.