Why you can’t forget about Gradey Dick

Key Highlights:

• After a slow start to his rookie year, Gradey Dick has really picked up the pace in his last 21 games – averaging 9.2 PPG on 62.3% true shooting
• Dick is more than just a shooter – he’s good at making quick decisions and attacking closeouts
• Dick has the chance to develop into the kind of role player that you find on teams contending for championships

As we’ve already discussed in-depth with young studs like Chet Holmgren and Brandin Podziemski, this class of rookies is littered with talented prospects who will be impacting this game for years to come. But we shouldn’t let the big names make us forget about under-the-radar guys who may not be on track to All-Stardom but still could be integral parts of strong teams.

One of those names is Gradey Dick, the player selected by the Toronto Raptors with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. But what is it that makes him so promising? What is it that keeps him from being a star? And who are some current players who he could hope to emulate?

The Good

Dick’s NBA career got off to a bit of a bumpy start. Through his 21 games, the Kansas Jayhawks product averaged 3.4 PPG on 45.2% true shooting. However, after a trip to the Raptors’ G-League affiliate (the Raptors 905), Dick rediscovered his basketball mojo and returned to the NBA looking for redemption.

Since then, in his last 21 games, Dick has averaged 9.6 PPG on 62.3% true shooting. A big reason for his turnaround has been the reemergence of his trusty jumper. In his first 21 games, Dick shot a mere 27.1% from beyond the arc. In his last 21 games, Dick has converted on 42.9% of his triples.

This isn’t the result of some flukey small sample size nonsense. The reason Dick was so highly-coveted coming out of college was his ability to stroke from way downtown (40.3% 3-point shooter in college). Dick combines his high launch angle (he’s 6’8), great touch (92.0% free throw shooter), and speedy shooting release (see this clip) to be one of the best marksmen in the sport.

Nowadays, the game has grown too sophisticated for a player to just be a shooting specialist. Defenses counter these shoot-first players by running them off the 3-point line and forcing the individual to beat them off the dribble (aka the fly-by closeout).

What made Dick such an intriguing prospect in college was his ability to not only shoot but also to counter aggressive closeouts with drives to the rim. Early in the season, Dick failed to translate his collegiate success to the NBA level (25.5% drives true shooting in his first 21 games, per NBA.com).

But that power has seemed to return along with his jumper. In Dick’s last 21 games, his drives true shooting is up to 52.4%. That is still below the league average in that play type. But with rookies, it’s not about the efficiency. It’s about the flashes. And Dick’s flashes have surely been fascinating.

Dick can not only complete these closeout attacks with a dribble drive finish. He can also maintain power plays by surveying the court and hitting the open man (like this).

His comfort in these closeout attacking situations speaks to a much larger theme of his game. Dick may not be the best on-ball creator (more on this in a second), but he knows how to play with speed and read the game quickly. When you combine this with his size and outside shooting, he becomes the perfect role player to pair with gifted ball handlers/passers like Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley.

The Bad

Offensively, Dick has the perfect loadout for being a great complimentary piece. Unfortunately, defense is a different story.

As we established, Dick is tall, understands defensive rotations, and he plays with an exceptional motor. Regarding that last point, I’ve once called him the basketball equivalent of Crash Bandicoot. But his freneticism is still a little out of control. He’s in the 30th percentile in foul rate among wing players (per Cleaning the Glass).

In general, committing a lot of fouls isn’t a deal-breaker. You can live with that if the player is committing those fouls in the name of trying to force turnovers. However, Dick is only in the 52nd percentile in steal rate among wings. This isn’t really enough defensive playmaking to make up for his moments of recklessness.

On top of that, Dick is a poor point-of-attack defender (first clip in the video montage below) who, despite his height, doesn’t provide much resistance on drives (second clip) or in the post (third). And although he battles hard for defensive rebounds (58th percentile in contested rebounding percentage, minimum 20 games played), he can get outworked on box outs (fourth).

Given his frailer frame and below average vertical pop (he hasn’t recorded a single block in 708 minutes this year) and lateral agility, it is hard to imagine Dick ever being even an average defender.

Back to his offense, it’s hard to envision a large role for Dick than the one he currently has. Dick’s got a poor handle, as evidenced by the fact that only 10% of his shots this year have come after three or more dribbles. This limits the amount of on-ball creation he can be reasonably expected to handle. Plus, since he’s not much of a vertical threat, he can’t increase his role by being a lob finisher or rim roller.

The Bottom Line

The reason Dick has been on my radar lately (man, that was an odd sentence to type) is that his statistical profile (according to Cerebro Sports’ 5-Metric Suite) is pretty similar to that of Trey Murphy III’s during his inaugural season.

Per @CerebroSports' 5-Metric Suite:

Gradey Dick
USG = 16%
PSP = 48
3PE = 72
FGS =50
ATR = 46
DSI = 63

Trey Murphy III (rookie year)
USG = 15%
PSP = 44
3PE =72
FGS = 52
ATR = 51
DSI = 67

Obviously, TMIII is a better physical athlete, but still interesting how similar they are. pic.twitter.com/EPXl1enRuX

— Mat Issa (@matissa15) March 8, 2024

Murphy, like Dick, was selected in the middle of the first round and went largely unrecognized during his rookie year before bursting onto the season in his sophomore season. Now, Murphy is one of the most valuable role players in basketball.

Dick’s ceiling is lower than Murphy’s because of the differences in their athletic ability (Murphy was the runner-up in the 2023 Slam Dunk Contest). But it is very possible that Dick’s blend of shooting, spacing, closeout attacking, and size leads to a sizable leap in Year Two.

Because of his defensive shortcomings, Dick is likely eliminated from joining the elite role player tier. But with his height, if Dick can maintain his defensive intensity while also learning to rein in his fouls, he could still be a pretty good role player (similar to Simone Fontecchio or Duncan Robinson).

Historically, winning teams house really good role players, and Dick’s potential to be that makes him worth keeping an eye on moving forward.