The Other Unicorn: Just how good can Chet Holmgren be?

Key Highlights:

• Chet Holmgren may not be Victor Wembanyama but he’s still a very special player in his own right
• The concerns about Holmgren’s frailer frame are a bit overblown (although they are still present in certain facets of the game)
• According to Cerebro Sports’ Global Search tool, Holmgren has been playing at a borderline All-Star level as a rookie

Everyone wants to talk about Victor Wembanyama (even our own writers), and rightfully so. The rookie center is defying the laws of physics on a nightly basis. But there is another generational talent playing his first season of NBA basketball this year, Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren.

In almost any other year, Holmgren would be the star of the show. Despite his inexperience, he’s already one of the three best players on a Thunder team that currently sits at first in the Western Conference.

But what makes Holmgren such an immediate impact? What are his weaknesses? And just how good can this year’s other unicorn hope to be?

The Good

Those who were paying attention last year knew that the 2022-23 Thunder were a formidable bunch. The only thing holding them back from being a playoff team in that campaign was a lack of shooting and rim protection.

In theory, Holmgren was supposed to provide that blend. Unfortunately, Holmgren missed the entirety of last season with a foot injury. But he’s healthy now, and he’s putting into practice everything he was supposed to be in theory.

Being a rookie NBA center is a tall task because of how much responsibility that position has on defense. Holmgren has been able to test out of this learning curve thanks to his strong mental and physical tools. He’s got a high basketball IQ (like Brandin Podziemski) and good court awareness. Holmgren’s also long (7’6 wingspan) and possesses great reaction speed. And he’s an ambidextrous shot-blocker, meaning he can block shots with either hand.

Holmgren is in the 96th percentile in block rate among centers (per Cleaning the Glass). He’s not some stat-padding block-hunter either. Holmgren’s interior presence leaves a positive imprint on his team’s rim protection. When Holmgren is on the floor, the Thunder are in the 63rd percentile in opponent rim frequency and the 98th percentile in opponent rim accuracy.

Rim protection is an important skill, but there are a handful of centers that can provide good rim protection when they are playing in a defensive ecosystem like the one in Oklahoma City (5th in defensive rating). However, most of these options are non-shooters that provide paint protection at the cost of spacing on offense.

Not Holmgren, though. He’s shooting 40% from downtown, which is in the 77th percentile among bigs. This opens up the lane for the best driving team in basketball, and it gives the Thunder a pick-and-pop pitch they can turn to when necessary. Holmgren is also a lob threat (he’s one of 16 players with at least 95 dunks this season), which means he can be used in traditional pick-and-rolls, too.

A tactic teams have come up with to defang pick-and-pop bigs like Holmgren is to veerback/late switch the action. This effectively neutralizes the pop…unless your big is someone who can punish the mismatch by putting the ball on the floor.

That brings us to the next part of Holmgren’s excellence. Not only does he fulfill an important need for this team, but he also doesn’t take away from their identity. So, the Thunder get all the benefits of having Holmgren without adding any new weaknesses.

As we alluded to earlier, the Thunder are a drive-heavy team. They average more drives than any team in the NBA (per NBA.com). Holmgren fits right into this prerogative — he’s in the 59th percentile in drive volume and the 93rd percentile in drive efficiency (per Thinking Basketball).

Back to the late switch, when teams try this maneuver against Holmgren, he can punish the smaller defender they try to send at him with his refined drive game.

And if that isn’t enough, Holmgren also has great footwork and touch in the midrange (92nd percentile in midrange efficiency). Watch any Thunder game, and you’ll see that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t the only Oklahoma City player who executes a move or two that reminds you of His Royal Airness.

The Fake Bad

Let’s start this section off by telling you what isn’t bad about Holmgren. Coming into the NBA, everyone was worried that Holmgren’s frailer stature would leave him susceptible to bigger brutes (that are coming back into style) in the post. However, the early returns of his matchup data (from NBA.com) seem to say otherwise.

2023-24 Holmgren Matchup Data*

*Data Provided by NBA.com

Based on these numbers, there are some giants that give Holmgren some problems (namely Nikola Jokic). But for the most part, Holmgren is holding these guys to percentages at/below their numbers for the season.

Now, matchup data isn’t perfect, but it’s a whole lot better than someone merely looking at Holmgren, saying he’s skinny, and then proceeding to write him off as a bad post defender!

The Actual Bad

Just because Holmgren is better at defending traditional bigs than his body type would suggest doesn’t mean he’s the perfect player. For instance, the Thunder are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, especially when Holmgren is on the floor. They are in the 12th percentile in offensive rebounding rate and 10th percentile in defensive rebounding rate in his minutes.

Some of this is due to the Thunder’s lineups. Most of their nominal power forwards are relatively small (like Jalen Williams). So, when Holmgren gets out of rebounding position to contest shots, there is no one on the back line that can adequately clean up the glass.

But some of this is also due to Holmgren’s limitations in the physicality department. We also see this with his screens. Of the 37 centers who play at least 25 minutes per game, Holmgren is just 27th in screen assists per game. This is emblematic of the lack of contact he makes while setting these picks (which, in turn, illustrates his lack of physicality).

The simple solution to this conundrum is that Holmgren just adds some more weight to his frame. But how many pounds can he pack before he loses what makes him so unique as a basketball player? Besides, the Thunder are still succeeding despite this deficiency. So, how detrimental of a shortcoming is it in the grand scheme of things?

Speaking of his strengths, while he’s already a very good defensive center, Holmgren still has some micro-skills that need fine-tuning. A great example of this is his hand placement on contests. The all-time great rim protectors (like Anthony Davis, Bill Russell, and Hakeem Olajuwon) use a shot-blocking technique where they contest the shot with one hand and use their other hand to play the pass.

Holmgren’s rival already has this defensive move in his bag.

It appears that Victor Wembyanama (who, mind you, just turned 20) is adding the "block the shot while also playing the pass" contest to his defensive bag.

This is a common tendency among all-time great shot-blockers like Anthony Davis, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Bill Russell. pic.twitter.com/OWLYy3BTUL

— Mat Issa (@matissa15) February 27, 2024

Meanwhile, Holmgren usually just contests shots with both his hands vertical (as evidenced by him only being in the 34th percentile in steal rate among centers). Holmgren’s current style has proven to be effective for Oklahoma City’s defense this year. But if he wants to level up his defensive status from really good to elite, he’ll need to add little wrinkles to his game like that tactic.

Offensively, Holmgren is a good shooter, roller, and closeout attacker. He’s already a strong role player on that end. But if he wants to be more than that, Holmgren will need to improve his passing (42nd percentile in Passer Rating) and on-ball scoring.

The Bottom Line

According to Cerebro Sports’ Global Search tool (which allows you to compare player seasons across different eras), the season that comes closest to Holmgren’s rookie year statistically was Rasheed Wallace’s 2001-02 season (his age-27 season).

This was right around Wallace’s peak as a player. And at his best, he was a top-25 player in the league (he was a four-time All-Star). Based on their statistical similarities, one could argue that Holmgren is also performing like a top-25 player right now (he’s 26th overall in Estimated Plus-Minus, per Dunks & Threes).

In any event, even if Holmgren is playing more like a top-35/40 player than a top-25 player, he’s still just a rookie. The fact that he’s already this good at such a young age (still just 21) bodes well for Holmgren’s long-term ceiling.

Most of the all-time great bigs were either defensive anchors who accumulated most of their points on the low block (like Tim Duncan) or offensive superstars who just got by on defense (like Dirk Nowitzki). Holmgren isn’t like either of those archetypes. But that doesn’t mean he can’t join their ranks in the basketball pantheon.

Holmgren represents a change of guard for the center spot. He’s a defensive anchor that operates more like a wing/guard on offense.

(Sidebar: Some could argue that Kevin Garnett already accomplished this feat. But even he had a more classical shot diet. Holmgren has already taken 257 career threes. That’s only 375 fewer threes than Garnett took during his entire 21-year NBA career.)

A cruel twist of fate led to Holmgren having to share his rookie year with a once-in-a-lifetime prospect. The early returns of the Wembanyama experience point to the prodigy having a GOAT-level ceiling. That probably isn’t in the cards for Holmgren. But that doesn’t mean that Holmgren can’t change the way his position is played, and become one of the greatest centers of all time in the process.

If you enjoyed this rookie breakdown, be sure to check out our article on Brandin Podziemski.