A Realistic Free Agency Wish List for the Knicks

We are mere hours away from free agency officially getting underway. It’s been a brutally long wait for Knicks fans who have spent the last nine months looking forward to “next year,” once it became abundantly clear that the 2014-15 season would be essentially unwatchable.

The Knicks are projected to have approximately $28 million in cap space (which they could increase to upwards of $31 million if they decide to waive Jose Calderon via the stretch provision). This is just the second time in last two decades that the Knicks have had significant cap space, so New Yorkers have high hopes, believing that Phil Jackson could begin to rebuild the franchise by restocking a roster relatively bereft of talent.

However, that enthusiasm was tampered a bit by a report from Yahoo’s Adrian Wojnarowski, which stated New York was heavily considering offering guard Arron Afflalo a three-year contract in the range of $36-$38 million.

If the Knicks signed Afflalo to a deal starting at $12 million, and inked the other player most often attached to New York, Greg Monroe, at the max ($15.7 million salary for the 2015-16 season), that would effectively eat up all the Knicks hard-earned cap room.

It’s hard to imagine adding Afflalo and Monroe to a team that won 17 games would result in a significant turnaround. More concerning, Afflalo is coming off a down season and will be 30 years old on Opening Night. This is a player whose upside is capped. Will he be a significantly better player two or three years from now, when the Knicks may finally be considered serious contenders?

Of course, no player can be signed until July 9th, so obviously nothing is set in stone, including Afflalo.

With that in mind, below we will examine a handful of other potential opportunities. The idea is to mix-and-match an assortment of free agents in order to best allocate the $28 million the Knicks have to spend.

It’s obviously always difficult to predict what wage players might agree to (for instance, few would have assumed Afflalo would be getting close to $37 million over three years), but we’ll do our best to approximate a starting salary.

We won’t list combinations including any of the truly elite top-level talents, such as
LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol or Kevin Love, as it appears the Knicks don’t have a realistic shot at the cream of the crop this summer. If any of those superstars would consider signing in New York, the Knicks would obviously offer the max without hesitation.

However, assuming the Knicks can’t land a big fish, here are some other ways they could distribute the $28 million resourcefully:

Package (A): Signing a trio of Patrick Beverly (annual salary starting at $8 million), Al-Farouq Aminu ($4 million), and Greg Monroe ($15.7 million)

The Knicks desperately need to upgrade defensively, especially in the backcourt. Opposing guards have been able to get into the paint at will against the Knicks for years now. The ball-hawking Beverley has been one of the NBA’s most aggressive defenders since elbowing his way into the Rockets’ rotation. Beverley, a restricted free agent, missed the final two months of the 2014-15 season after he underwent surgery on his left wrist that will require four months of recovery. May this decrease demand for his services a bit? If the Knicks made a solid offer, would the Rockets match? This would be an especially ideal fit if New York waived or traded Calderon.

Aminu’s counting stats will never jump off the page, but the former lottery pick (eighth overall selection in 2010) continues to steadily improve. His PER and Win Shares have increased each season he’s been in the league. He was a tremendous value signing for the Mavericks last summer, as Dallas paid him less than a million bucks this past season. This improving, defensive-minded wing could still be a solid value if signed for the right price. And while some teams may be willing to offer more money, the Knicks lack of depth could actually be viewed as a positive by Aminu’s camp, as he would be in line for plenty of playing time in a major market.

Monroe flashed elite talent and very intriguing upside early on in his career. As a 21-year-old, he averaged 15.4 points (on 52.1 percent shooting), 9.7 rebounds and 0.7 blocks per game in his second season. However, he’s never taken his game to the next level. His field goal percentage has dipped below 50 percent for three consecutive seasons. His steal and block totals have decreased three years in row. Still, he is just 25 and has yet to reach his full potential. He’s a quality low-post player that can score effectively on the block, and passes relatively well for a big man (a big plus in The Triangle).

Package (B): Danny Green (annual salary starting 12 million), Robin Lopez (12 million) and Kyle O’Quinn ($4 million)

Born and raised on Long Island (he attended St. Mary’s High School in Manhasset), Danny Green starred at the University of North Carolina. He became the only player in ACC history with at least 1,000 points, 500 rebounds, 250 assists, 150 three-pointers, 150 blocks and 150 steals, but still slid into the second round in the 2009 draft. He was eventually waived by the Cleveland Cavaliers before the San Antonio Spurs scooped him up. Green flourished in the Spurs’ system. He played well in big games, and helped propel the Spurs to an NBA championship title in 2014. It could be argued that Green is the best all-around 3-and-D wing on the market this summer. Although he has publicly professed a desire to return to San Antonio, would the native New Yorker seriously consider signing with his hometown Knicks?

Not nearly as accomplished on the offensive end as his brother, Robin Lopez is a better defender and rebounder than Brook. Robin has also been far more durable. Because the Knicks have ‘Melo and should eventually have plenty of offensive firepower, Lopez is solid fit as he will be happy to clog up the paint, board and bang.

Kyle O’Quinn, who was born and raised in Queens, and flashed enough intriguing upside over his first three years in the NBA playing for the Magic that he’ll draw plenty of attention this summer.

Package (C): Tobias Harris ($14 million), Jared Dudley ($5 million), Marco Belinelli ($4.5 million) and Bismack Biyombo ($4 million)

Tobias Harris is another Long Island product. He has been linked as a potential Knicks target for years, but is that simply his agent trying to manufacture New York buzz in order to increase interest and leverage for his client? Harris is one of the more difficult free agents to peg. He’s dealt with some injury issues (missing 35 games over the last two seasons), and his defensive aptitude isn’t all that impressive. However, Harris has shown plenty of intriguing upside during his stint in Orlando. Last season, he was one of just six players to average at least 17 points, six rebounds and one steal per game. (The other five were: Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, DeMarcus Cousins and Carmelo Anthony). Still just 22 years of age, Harris has yet to hit his prime.

Every good team needs a ‘glue guy’ like Jared Dudley. A solid shooter with a high-basketball IQ, Dudley is the type of bench contributor the Knicks have been missing. In the past, Dudley has talked highly of New York.

Biyombo, the seventh overall pick in the 2011 draft, has been flirting with the “bust” label. He averaged fewer than three points and five rebounds per game in 2013-14. However, the big man showed signs of life this past season, particularly late in the year. Over the Charlotte Hornets’ final 11 games, Biyombo averaged 7.0 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.4 blocks, while shooting 54.5 percent from the floor. The Hornets decided not to offer a qualifying offer, so he is now an unrestricted free agent.

As more and more of a premium is placed on three-point shooting league-wide, sharp shooters such as Belinelli will always have value.

Package (D): DeAndre Jordan ($18.9 million), Mirza Teletovic ($3.5 million), Cory Joseph ($3 million), Tyler Hansbrough ($3 million)

Jordan has steadily improved year-to-year, and has firmly established himself as one of the NBA’s best big men. He finished the 2014-15 campaign averaging 11.5 points, a whopping 15.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks, while shooting a mind-boggling 71.0 percent from the floor. He joined Wilt Chamberlain as just the second player in NBA history to average at least 15 rebounds per game and shoot over 70 percent from the field. Jordan will demand max money on the open market. He’d be a great the rim-protector to pair alongside the defensively-deficient Carmelo Anthony playing at power forward.

Teletovic received frightening news back in January when doctors discovered he had blood clots in his lungs. Surprisingly, and fortunately, he made a complete recovery and was able to play in Brooklyn’s first-round matchup with the Hawks. When healthy, he’s a valuable “Stretch-Four” that can help spread the floor.

Cory Joseph hasn’t had a real opportunity to showcase his skills, but has flashed intriguing upside in limited minutes with the Spurs. It remains to be seen if a large enough offer could pry him away from San Antonio.

Obviously limited on the offensive end, Hansbrough still finds a way to contribute by understanding and embracing his role as a rebounder, defender and screen-setter.

Package (E): David West ($9 million), Kosta Koufos ($9.5 million), Ed Davis ($5.5 million) and J.J. Barea ($4 million)

Multiple reports surfaced last week linking West to the Knicks, however, the buzz seems to have died down. One of the most respected professionals in the sport, West’s significant contributions are not limited to what he does on the floor. His role as a mentor and team leader greatly increases his value and overall worth. And with a youngster like Porzingis on the roster, having a mentor like West in the locker room would be a boon. Still, having West on the floor would result in ‘Melo logging major minutes at small forward, which isn’t ideal. Moreover, West is looking to win now, and the Knicks aren’t ready.

Backing up Marc Gasol, Kosta Koufos’ playing time has been limited. However, his Per-36 minute averages are impressive: 11.1 points, 11.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. He’ll land a big raise and likely a starting gig this summer.

Davis slid through the cracks last summer and had to settle for a low-ball offer from the L.A. Lakers. After a solid season in L.A., he’ll look to cash in elsewhere.

Barea posted the best PER of his career (15.1) in Dallas last season as an energetic spark-plug off the Mavericks bench. That’s the role he is best suited for; playing 18-20 minutes a night and possibly more if he’s hot.

Package (F): Wes Matthews ($13 million), Omer Asik ($11 million) and Gary Neal ($3 million)

Matthews tore his Achilles tendon in early March and is facing a daunting rehab. Before the injury, the underrated Matthews was enjoying another solid season, playing well on both sides of the ball. In fact, he was leading the entire league in made three-pointers at the All-Star break. Recovering fully from an Achilles tear is certainly no guarantee, but if his price tag drops far enough, Matthews could be a very shrewd signing. However, he has intimated he is looking for a contract starting at $15 million per season. That’s a big gamble for non-superstar coming off such a serious injury.

Asik has been solid, if unspectacular, since becoming a starting center. He signed with the Houston Rockets prior to the start of the 2012-13 season, which was his first opportunity to showcase his full skill-set as a starter in the NBA. Then, last summer, he was traded to the New Orleans Pelicans in exchange for a first-round pick. In the 200 games he has played over the last three years, Asik has averaged 8.1 points, 10.1 rebounds and 0.9 blocks. He’s not a stud, but certainly a serviceable starting center who will protect the rim and chip in offensively.

Neal is a sharp shooter who can come off the bench as a third guard and help space the floor, giving Carmelo Anthony more room to operate.

Package (G): Robin Lopez ($12 million), Patrick Beverly ($8 million), Al-Farouq Aminu ($4.5 million) and Chris Copeland ($3 million)

The “Defensive Centric” trio, as detailed above, would provide much needed help on “D.”

Copeland signed a $6.1 million, two-year deal with the Pacers back in the summer of 2013 after a surprisingly impressive rookie season in New York as a 28 year old. However, he disappointed the Pacers (both on and off the court) and will be looking for a new team this July.

Package (H): DeMarre Carroll ($15.7 million) and Greg Monroe ($15.7)

This would require waiving/stretching Jose Calderon, but would improve the roster immediately, and also provide long-term upside.

Carroll bounced around the NBA, playing for four teams over his first three years in the league, before signing a two-year deal with the Hawks in the summer of 2013. Carroll developed into a terrific two-way player in Atlanta and returned tremendous value for the Hawks (Carroll made just $2.4 million this past season). Carroll survived a scare in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, when it appeared he had suffered a major knee injury. Plenty of teams will be knocking down his door on July 1 to eagerly offer him a major raise.

Package (I): Jae Crowder ($9 million), Brandan Wright ($7 million), Iman Shumpert ($7 million), Rodney Stuckey ($5 million)

After seeing limited and sporadic minutes over his first few seasons in Dallas, Jae Crowder got a chance to shine in Boston after a mid-season deal sent him to the Celtics. Efficiency is an issue (he posted an eFG just below 47 percent), but the energy and defensive effort he brought to the table reportedly impressed Celtics management. We shall see what kind of offers Crowder might receive this summer, and if Boston will match.

Wright had the best season of his young career in 2013-14 in Dallas, when he averaged 9.1 points and 4.2 rebounds, while shooting 67.7 percent from the floor. Still, there are noticeable flaws in his game, and his numbers dipped a bit last season. Can he handle the rigors of starter’s minutes?

Shumpert showed flashes of star potential as a rookie, averaging 9.5 points and 2.8 assists and earning First Team All-Rookie honors in New York. He also finished in the top 10 in steals that season (1.7 per game), and was recognized as one of the preeminent young perimeter defenders in the NBA. However, his game has regressed in the years since, possibly due to an ACL tear in 2012. He’s not quite the same feared defender, and his offensive game hasn’t improved (his free throw percentage has actually decreased in each of his last three seasons). Still, he’s a hard worker who’s yet to reach his full potential. He’ll draw interest on the open market.

Stuckey filled in solidly for the Pacers last season, shooting a career-high from both the floor (44 percent) and from behind-the-arc (39 percent).

Package (J): Rajon Rondo ($8.5 million), Jordan Hill ($7 million), Amir Johnson ($6.5 million) and Corey Brewer ($5.5 million)

It seems like only yesterday when it was all but a forgone conclusion that Rondo would have teams beating down his door to offer him a max contract when he hit the open market. However, Rondo’s stock, which was dipping, bottomed out in Dallas. After an uninspired effort in Game 2 of their playoffs series, the Mavericks sent him home and refused to pay him a postseason share. While Rondo’s performance this past season was undeniably disappointing, the signs of regression were certainly evident. Not only is he injury prone (Rondo has missed at least 14 games each season this decade), his production even when healthy is no longer elite. Once a feared defender, Rondo is now merely average. And his offensive efficiency has gone from bad to worse. He’s a career 26 percent three-point shooter and last season he became the first player in NBA history shorter than 6’6 to shoot below 40 percent from the free-throw line over the course of a full NBA campaign. Still, would it be worth gambling on if he was willing to sign a one year “make good” contract?

Amir Johnson has played 10 seasons in the NBA, but he’s still just 28 years old. We know what Johnson is at this stage of the game: A solid rotation player with some obvious limitations.

While he wasn’t quite as efficient this past season as he was in 2013-14, Jordan Hill posted career highs across the board in 2014-15, scoring 12 points and grabbing 7.9 rebounds per game.

Brewer had a $4.9 million player option. He’s due for a raise and a longer contract after a solid showing in Houston over the second half of the 2014-15 season and especially in the playoffs.

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Another option Phil Jackson and company could pursue would be using their cap space to obtain an existing contract from a team looking to shed salary. For instance, we know the Warriors would prefer to move David Lee in order to get clear the $15.5 million he is owed off their books. What would Golden State be willing to package along with Lee in order to get New York to eat the final season of Lee’s contract?

The Spurs reportedly have a legit shot at signing LaMarcus Aldridge. In order to do so, they would likely have to trade center Tiago Splitter.

The Knicks could use their cap space to their advantage in these types of situations.

Of course, another alternative the Knicks should at least consider is only pursuing free agents that present a value/discount opportunity. There will be a bevy of top-tier free agents hitting the market in 2016, and if the Knicks save their cap space, they could be looking at upwards of $50 million to spend once the salary cap jumps to $90 million next summer. This would allow the Knicks to offer multiple max contracts, which might entice a pair of stars to team up with ‘Melo in NYC.

There are far more questions than answers at this stage of the game. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.