NBA Saturday: Best Individual Matchups of First Round

It seems like it was just yesterday that the regular season was getting underway. Throughout the regular season, we saw star players like Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose and Paul George return from serious injuries, breakout seasons from guys like Rudy Gobert and Khris Middleton and the rise of superstars like Stephen Curry and James Harden to an MVP level among other notable things. But all of that led us to the part of the season that really matters.

Today marks the beginning of the 2014-15 playoffs. In case you haven’t already done so, be sure to check out our series previews here. In addition to our series previews, today we take a look at some of the best individual matchups by position to keep an eye on in the first-round.

Chris Paul v. Tony Parker

The first-round matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers should be one for the ages. It really is a shame that one of these two teams will be out of the playoffs after the first-round. The Spurs are considered the favorite in this series by many fans and analysts. But how this series ultimately plays out will, in large part, be determined by who wins the point guard matchup.

Chris Paul and Tony Parker have played against one another in 11 postseason games, with Parker and his Spurs winning eight times. Paul has a slight statistical edge over Parker in their matchups, but Parker has the rings that Paul wants. Both are elite point guards, but do their damage in different ways.

Paul led the league this season with 10.2 assists per game (the fourth time he has led the league). When Paul is on the floor, the Clippers are an elite offensive team (115.1 points per 100 possessions). However, when he is off the court, Los Angeles’ offense falls apart, scoring just 95.6 points per 100 possessions. He doesn’t split defenders and attack the rim like he did earlier in his career, but he is still able to get to the right elbow (where he is lethal) almost whenever he wants. However, Paul will have his work cut out for him considering that Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich will likely throw ace defenders Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green at him for stretches throughout each game.

But where Paul is the engine that drives his team’s offense, Parker is more of a key cog in San Antonio’s well-oiled offensive machine. Though Parker is a good playmaker, Popovich doesn’t rely on him to constantly generate open shots for his teammates. The Spurs’ motion-based offense creates those open shots on its own and is why it is so hard for opposing teams to slow San Antonio down.

In his 14^th season, Parker is still able to dice into the lane and finish over the best defensive big men in the league. In addition, Parker is shooting a career-best 42.7 percent from beyond-the-arc (which is significantly better than his 32.3 percent career average). And, similar to Paul, Parker is very effective in pick and roll sets (83.6 percentile), where he is able to either attack the basket, pull up for a mid-range jumper or dump the ball off to a rolling big man like Tim Duncan.

While Parker is still a tough cover on offense, he isn’t quite the defensive player that Paul is. As previously mentioned, Popovich will probably put Leonard and Green on Paul at times, which means Parker will have to cover someone like J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford or Matt Barnes. Nevertheless, Parker will have to check Paul from time to time, which will be a tough task. Paul, age 29, isn’t the athlete he once was, but he is still a top defensive point guard and has the ability to disrupt Parker.

Aside from Griffin and Crawford, Paul is the only player that can consistently generate points for his teammates. If San Antonio manages to keep him on his heels, and Parker performs at his usual level, the Clippers will have a tough time making it out of the first-round.

Jimmy Butler v. Khris Middleton

Jimmy Butler and Khris Middleton are both having breakout seasons. Butler has emerged as arguably the Chicago Bulls’ best and most valuable player and is probably the front-runner to win this year’s Most Improved Player award. At age 25, Butler is averaging 20 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.8 steals while shooting 37.8 percent from three-point range.

Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau heavily relies on Butler on both ends of the court, playing him a team-leading 38.7 minutes per game. However, Butler has been an aggressive, lock-down defensive player in past seasons, but has been less effective on that end this season as he has taken on a bigger role on offense. Last season, Butler had a 1.23 Defensive Real Plus-Minus rating, whereas this season, he has just a -0.13 rating. Butler will need to keep his focus on Middleton when they are matched up against one another as Middleton moves well off the ball and is hitting 42.3 percent of his catch and shoot three-point attempts this season.

Speaking of Middleton, his per game stats are not quite as impressive as Butler’s (13.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.5 steals per game), but that doesn’t mean he’s not as vital to his team’s success. When Middleton is on the court, the Milwaukee Bucks are holding opponents to an impressive 96 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/stats. That defensive rating would lead the entire league, including the Golden State Warriors’ 98.2 defensive rating.

But it doesn’t end there. The Bucks also score 2.4 more points per 100 possessions when Middleton plays, which is good for a +6.9 net differential. That net rating is equal to the Los Angeles Clippers’ net rating, and 0.3 points higher than the Spurs’. These impressive numbers have a lot to do with the quality of the teammates Middleton customarily plays with, but even advanced metrics that take these variables into account show that Middleton is a significant difference-maker for the Bucks. Middleton leads all shooting guards in Defensive RPM with a 4.08 rating, and is second only to MVP candidate James Harden in overall RPM with a 6.47 rating.

This is a great matchup between two of the rising shooting guards in the league and will have a huge impact on how this series plays out.

Jeff Green v. Nicolas Batum

The Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers enter the postseason with injuries to key players. Fortunately for the Trail Blazers, small forward Nicolas Batum will play in Game 1 despite suffering a knee contusion on April 13.

Batum is having a down season, averaging just 9.4 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while shooting 32.4 percent from beyond-the-arc. Unfortunately for Portland, Batum has been even worse when facing the Grizzlies this season. Against Memphis, Batum averaged 6.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and shot just 32.4 percent from the field. Making matters worse for the Trail Blazers, Jeff Green played above his season averages against Portland.

In 45 games with the Grizzlies, Green is averaging 13.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists while shooting 36.2 percent from beyond-the-arc. But against Portland, Green is averaging 17.2 points and 6.3 rebounds while shooting a blistering 57.1 percent from three-point range. Batum will need to slow down Green if the Trail Blazers are to have a shot of winning this series. If his knee is not 100 percent, then perhaps Portland head coach Terry Stotts can put Alonzo Gee on Green, but that is a less than ideal solution.

We know what to expect from the stars in this series. Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will all likely do their usual damage (though Aldridge and Conley are dealing with injuries as well). But what each team gets from guys like Batum and Green could be the difference in this series. So far Memphis has gotten the better of this matchup.

Anthony Davis v. Draymond Green

This may be the most interesting and best overall individual matchup in the first-round. Sure, the Golden State Warriors are the heavy favorites in this series, but we get to watch Anthony Davis (who has had an MVP-worthy season) go up against Draymond Green, who has been dominant defensively this season.

Green is ranked fourth overall in Defensive RPM at 4.60, and second among small forwards (behind defensive ace Kawhi Leonard). This rating tells us that Green makes a huge impact on the court defensively for the Warriors, but it doesn’t explain how. The thing that makes Green so important for Golden State is his ability to guard all five positions and switch seamlessly in pick and roll situations. With other defensive wings like Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston, the Warriors are able to switch aggressively, preventing opposing offenses from executing their primary actions. This scheme doesn’t work without Green and his ability to check players as quick as Chris Paul and as big as Davis.

Davis will be a particularly tough matchup for Green because of his height, improved mid-range shooting, ability to face the basket and drive to the rim and his ability to find open teammates from the post. Green has the strength to body up Davis and keep him out of the lane, but that doesn’t mean he will be able to shut him down completely.

Davis is averaging 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 2.9 blocks per game. He registered an absurd Player Efficiency Rating of 30.8 for the regular season and was fifth in overall RPM at 7.52. The fact that he managed to get his team into the postseason at all, coupled with his individual stats, makes him a worthy choice for MVP (though it will likely go to Stephen Curry or James Harden). If the Pelicans are to have any chance this series, Davis will need to dominate Green on offense, control the paint on defense and get some serious help from teammates like Eric Gordon, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans.

The Pelicans may be severe underdogs in this series, but the chance to watch Davis and Green battle it out on its own will make tuning in to each game worthwhile.

Brook Lopez v. Al Horford

Like the Pelicans, the Brooklyn Nets are severely outmatched in their first-round matchup. The Nets are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency, have a -3.1 net rating on the season and only have two lineups that have played over 100 minutes together with a positive net differential, according to NBA.com/stats.

The good news for the Nets is that the mid-season acquisition of Thaddeus Young has provided a huge boost to the team and center Brook Lopez has been on a tear in the second half of the season. Since March 1, Lopez is averaging 20.7 points, 9.1 rebounds and two blocks per game while shooting 54.7 percent from the field. If Lopez can dominate his matchup with Al Horford on both ends of the court, then the Nets may have a chance of challenging the Hawks in a few games at least. However, Horford is no slouch and the Hawks’ offense is structured in such a way that even a dominant showing from Lopez may not be enough to save the Nets from a first-round exit.

In the regular season, Horford averaged 15.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. Horford continues to play at center despite being more of a natural power forward. Nevertheless, Horford is big enough and strong enough to body up opposing centers effectively. Containing Lopez one-on-one may prove difficult for Horford, but he should be able to hold his own.

On offense Horford shoots well enough from mid-range that Lopez will have to move away from the basket at times. But even if Lopez is able to stay near the rim and protect the paint, the Hawks shoot a healthy 26.2 three-point attempts per game and hit at the second highest rate in the league (38 percent). The Hawks’ perimeter game may be too much for the Nets’ shaky defense to compete with, meaning Lopez will have to be even more dominant than he has been recently for Brooklyn to have any shot in this series.

This matchup is intriguing mostly because of how much the Nets need Lopez to be dominant in order to have a chance at advancing. Lopez has been playing extremely well lately, and it will be interesting to see if he can take it to another level in the postseason.