2015 NBA Draft Stock Watch

It’s a great time to be a basketball junkie with March Madness around the corner. The NCAA tournament is not only exciting to watch but also presents yet another opportunity to see the best college players in the country display their skills. There will be many eyes keenly focused on NBA prospects, and we’ve seen that a strong tournament showing can help boost a player’s draft stock. Every player is in a different situation. While some are looking to cement their status as top pick, others are looking show they are worthy of first-round pick for some guaranteed money or hoping just to get drafted at all to fulfill a lifelong dream.

As we’ve been keeping a pulse on things from the beginning of the NCAA season, there’s been plenty of movement draft stock wise as the season has progressed. This is yet another year where there’s a few guys who could be selected as the top overall pick – there’s no consensus number one regardless of what anyone might be saying at this point. Big man Jahlil Okafor out of Duke has lived up to the hype, Emmanuel Mudiay held things down balling overseas in China, but there has also been the rise of Ohio State’s silky smooth point guard D’Angelo Russell and the intriguing two-way play of Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns. Today, we’re going to talk about some of these prospects as well as a few others whose draft stock has risen or fallen as the college basketball season has developed.

Rising Up

D’Angelo Russell
Position: PG/SG Height: 6’5’’ Ohio State Buckeyes
19.3 PPG 5.1 APG 1.6 SPG 5.6 RPG .458 FG% .415% 3 PT FG%

While Emmanuel Mudiay has been receiving a lot of the attention throughout the season after his impressive play in China, it’s the freshman Buckeye star who has risen to the top of the draft boards and taken perhaps the biggest leap. Mudiay was anointed as a potential top-five pick by most before he even stepped on the court in China. Russell, on the other hand, was thought to have the potential to be drafted in the first round with a decent season but nobody was talking about him being at the top of the lottery. While high school rankings don’t mean everything, it’s a little unusual to see a guy who was ranked by Rivals as the 18th-best prospect in his class all of the sudden have NBA executives getting fined by the league for talking about how great of prospect he is (I’m looking at you, Phil Jackson). Despite being a McDonald’s All-American out of high school, it was clear his work was cut out for him when it was the big men on the roster (Okafor, Towns, Turner and Alexander) that received all the hype.

So what’s changed? Since day one, it was clear that we hadn’t begun to see who the real D’Angelo Russell is after being somewhat overshadowed by highly talented and heavily recruited teammates on his Montverde Academy high school team. In his first game on the hardwood for the Buckeyes, he dropped 32 points in 25 minutes against Sacred Heart. He followed up that game by scoring 22 points against Campbell. While you may be thinking those were some cupcake teams, Russell’s game did not falter much as the season progressed against stronger Big Ten opponents. It became quickly evident the he possesses not only great scoring prowess but incredible court vision that pairs well with his passing ability. Despite not having out of this world athleticism, it’s hard not to come away impressed watching him play as he displays a combination of confidence and poise rarely seen in such a young guard. While he has the ability to play both guard spots in college at his size, he’s shown himself to be more than capable of developing into a point guard at the next level. This is a guy to watch heading into March Madness.

Karl-Anthony Towns
Position: PF/C Height: 7’0’’ Kentucky Wildcats
9.8 PPG 6.8 RPG 2.3 BPG 1.1 APG .556 FG% .250 3PT FG%

Playing for an undefeated Kentucky Wildcats, it’s hard not to be in the spotlight and even more so when you’re a seven-footer with a 7’3’’ wingspan. While the consensus around the league is that Duke’s Jahlil Okafor may be the most NBA-ready big man in the draft, it’s Towns who may have the higher ceiling and end up with the better pro career in the long run. In addition, while Okafor’s game most closely resembles that of the traditional big men of yore that concentrate mostly on a well-rounded low post game, Towns displays the potential to be more of your modern big man of today with the potential to develop into a stretch-four. It’s that type of versatility, in combination with his defensive tools, that make him such an interesting prospect and really separate him from Okafor.

While the Wildcats big man’s stats may not seem eye popping on the surface, he’s sacrificed for the good of a stacked team with championship aspirations and is getting things done on both ends of the floor playing only 20.9 minutes per game. What really intrigues NBA scouts at this point is his tenacity and instincts on the defense end – his advance stats currently have him as the player with the top defensive rating in the country (76.1 DRtg). He’s also an excellent free throw shooter, hitting 79.6 percent from the line for the season, which is not something to take for granted when it comes to big men. That indicates his shooting stroke isn’t broken, which bodes well for his development as a pick-and-pop player down the road (and he’s already shown some flashes throughout the year). If you are thinking he’s just your typical plodding big man then think again. Towns moves with a fluidity and speed that will be hard to match up with even at the next level, especially as his body continues to fill in. In the end, while he may take a little longer to reach his potential, he may very well be worth the wait.

Justise Winslow
Position: SF Height: 6’7’’ Duke Blue Devils
12.3 PPG 5.9 RPG 2.0 APG 1.3 SPG .489 FG% .396 3PT FG%

It’s hard to watch this Blue Devil forward’s game and not be reminded of the Charlotte Hornets’ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in some aspects. In Winslow, you have an uber-athletic wing player with a chiseled frame that’s a tenacious defender, consummate team player and excellent transition guy, with an incredible motor on both ends of the floor. Unlike Kidd-Gilchrist, who has a shaky jump shot, Winslow has shown great promise with his shooting stroke. Currently, he’s the third best shooter among draft eligible forwards. Defensively, he shines particularly well guarding the pick and roll where, according to Synergy Sports, he’s holding down opposing PnR ball handlers to .487 PPP (points per possession). In the NBA, where the pick and roll is prevalent, this skill will surely not go unnoticed.

While he certainly seemed to hit the freshman wall for a stretch around the beginning of this year, he sure has come on strong to finish the season. He’s averaging 14.7 points, 7.8 rebounds and nearly two steals per game since the loss to Notre Dame at the end of January. While his teammate Jahlil Okafor may be getting the majority of the limelight and deservedly so, Winslow is hitting his stride at the right time leading up to the tournament. Keep an eye on this Blue Devil to see if he can continue his strong play into the NCAA tournament.

Sliding Down

Cliff Alexander
Position: PF/C Height: 6’9’’ Kansas Jayhawks
7.1 PPG 5.3 RPG 1.2 BPG .4 APG .566 FG% .671 FT%

As a highly touted high school prospect, Alexander was pegged in the same company as the other big men who were thought to be lottery picks come June. But a lot has changed for the Kansas big man. After a rocky season in which he struggled against tougher competition, his stock has practically fallen off a cliff. He’s failed to show much development and has been exposed by players with length who challenge him in the post. Without much of a jumper, when he’s not playing well in the post his contributions diminish quickly on the offensive end. This is particularly important for him because he’s undersized to play the center position at the next level and there’s not a big market for undersized centers who can’t shoot from outside the paint.

To make matters worse we’ve most likely seen the last of him at the collegiate level as he’s currently battling the NCAA for his mother allegedly receiving impermissible benefits from a company known to loan money to athletes. He’s hasn’t suited up for the Jayhawks since Feb. 28, missing four games to date and even Kansas coach Bill Self has essentially indicated the program will move forward without him. That’s a huge blow as a good tournament showing would certainly help him turn things around, but now it looks as though he may not even get the chance. Our friends at Draft Express currently have him as a bubble first-rounder at the 30th pick.

Andrew Harrison
Position: PG/SG Height: 6’5’’ Kentucky Wildcats
9.0 PPG 3.8 APG 2.2 RPG 1.0 SPG .369 FG% .366 3PT FG% (14-15 Season)

Once thought to be a lock as a top-10 pick entering college, things have certainly turned out a little differently. After a rather lackluster freshman campaign and coming off a tournament run last season that ended with them falling short of winning the NCAA championship to the UConn Huskies, it was determined that he may have been better suited to return for his sophomore season to work on his game. At the time, he looked more like a mid-to-late first rounder as he still had shown the ability to create his own shot and had shown some poise to hit buckets during crunch time in their run to the title game.

He returned his sophomore season to join a crowded backcourt as a new crop of talented freshman guards joined fray in Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis to go along with his twin brother Aaron, who also came back. With playing time hard to come by, Harrison saw his minutes drop from 31.7 MPG to 25.5 MPG this season. The real knock on him at this point is that he really hasn’t made a leap in his development for the most part. He’s improved his defense with his length and size, averaging 1.6 steals per 40 minutes, but it’s the rest of his game that has essentially remained the same. This has concerned scouts, as his younger teammates have shown more promise at times. The good news is the NCAA tournament is just around the corner, with the Wildcats rolling. If he can string together some strong performances, it may remind scouts why he was such a promising NBA prospect in the first place. He’s currently being projected by many as a mid-to-high second round pick.

Today is Selection Sunday and there’s some exciting basketball up ahead. There will be many players who we haven’t talked about today that will surely be on the NBA draft radar by the time March Madness ends. Watching it all unfold is half the fun and a big reason why it’s one of the best times of the year to be a basketball fan.