NBA AM: Suns May Be Better Off In The Long-Run

The Suns In A Better Place:  The Phoenix Suns have had one practice since the trade deadline. That’s not altogether crazy considering the pace of the season and how much wear and tear teams endure at this point in the season.

What makes it remarkable is that new guards Brandon Knight and Marcus Thornton have been thrown into the proverbial fire and have had to learn on the fly in every sense of the word.

“That’s all we can do,” Knight told Basketball Insiders. “Especially me and all the new guys; we got to try to pick it up as quickly as we can, try to implement the stuff and try to execute it. It’s going to take time so we have to be patient and not get frustrated when things don’t go the right way or how they should go but it’s just a day-by-day thing.”

The Suns are scrapping for a post-season spot, however, the deadline deal that sent out four point guards has changed the dynamics a little, but mostly for the new players coming in.

“You got guys that can pick and pop, you got guys like Alex Len who can pick and roll so there are definitely a lot of options,” Knight said. “You just got to over time figure out what each guy likes to do. Some guys like to roll, some guys like to pop, catch it at certain areas and isolate. So it’s a matter of watching these guys over time and seeing where they’re best at and where they’re not best at, and putting them in a position to be successful.”

The Suns opened the season expecting to re-sign guard Goran Dragic to a long-term deal. However, a few days before the deadline Dragic and his agents informed the Suns they would not be re-signing, which prompted one of the busiest trade deadlines in recent history with 39 players changing teams.

While it’s only been a handful of games, it’s easy to see why Phoenix opted to pair Knight with guard Eric Bledsoe; the two guards are relentless in their attack and are extremely interchangeable.

“We both can get into the paint, draw a lot of attention and put the pressure on the opposing team,” Knight said. “I mean a lot of times the ball is going to be in our hands and that’s definitely part of our system, attacking, making each other better and making players around us better as well.”

Knight, who chuckled at the notion of being comfortable at this point, understands there is a process to all of it and that’s it’s not going to happen overnight.

“It’s like day thirteen,” Knight said with a smile. “I was with Milwaukee for a year and half so I don’t think you can be comfortable in two weeks, so like I said it’s a process.”

Having another player coming in at the same time has helped ease the learning curve. Thornton and Knight sit next to each other in the locker room and routinely compare notes and situations.

“If I was here by myself it would be kind of hard for me to relate to somebody,” Knight said. “Having somebody here that is in kind of the same situation it makes it a little bit easier.”

While the change was sudden and abrupt for Knight, his teammates see him executing and playing like they have been all year. So a lot of the adjustment is coming from Knight’s side in order to fit into a process that’s already working for the rest of the roster.

The Suns entered this season hoping to re-sign their star point guard. That goal may not change much, it’s just the name of that guard has changed. And in the grand scheme, the 23-year old Knight may be a much better long-term fit for Phoenix, and cheaper too.

The Kevin Love Condundrum:  The most popular question I get asked lately is what’s going to happen with Kevin Love this summer?

Honest answer? No one knows but Kevin, and I am not sold he really knows yet either.

During the All-Star break, sources close to Love said that while things were not working out quite like he’d hoped they would for him personally, he actually is enjoying the team’s success, his teammates and the spotlight of being on a contender.

This is the most basketball he has won in a long time and he knew coming into it his numbers were going to take a dip just because of the talent around him.

Love has the option to be a free agent and in a stunning and very calculated move proclaimed to the media that he was not going to use that option and that he was staying in Cleveland.

As reporters we have an obligation to print what players say, even if we may not always believe the words said. In this case, Love has an option year worth $16.77 million. If he elects to become a free agent, based on the latest projections, he is eligible to sign a new contract with a starting salary worth $20.2 million, a difference of roughly $3.43 million.

That’s a lot of money to leave on the table, just because.

Some proponents of the “stay-in the deal” story point to the new TV deal the NBA has inked and the massive increase in the cap that’s expected in July of 2016 as a reason for Love to stay in his deal and test free agency in 2016 under the new cap.

The problem with projecting the new TV deal into the salary cap equation is no one knows what the annual payout structure of the deal is. Most experts believe, like most contracts, it will tier upwards, and increase in a year-over-year way, rather than being one equal payment every year.

Our own salary cap guru Eric Pincus projects the 2016 salary cap to be in the neighborhood of $78 million.

If Love were to wait for 2016, his maximum first year could swell to $23.4 million, compared to this summer’s $20.2 million; a difference of $3.2 million.

So is leaving $3.45 million now worth it to make $3.2 million in 2016?

That notion also neglects that with raises, Love is likely close to that new max number in his second year of a deal.

So let’s do the math.

If Love signs a new deal this summer, it likely tiers out to something like this: first year, $20.2 million, second year, $22.32 million, third year, $24.42 million for a grand total over the next three years of $66.94 million.

If Love stays in his deal, and then signs under the new TV contract his next three years looks something like this: first year, $16.77 million, second year, $23.4 million, third year, $25.85 million for a grand total over the next three years of $66.02 million.

Not quite the windfall some might think right? It’s money now versus money later.

Here are the other factors.

What happens if Love posts another non-All-star season? How about another injury? If you are Love, do you want to compete in the free agency market when guys like Kevin Durant and LeBron are going to be all the rage in 2016?

If you look at the numbers, there really isn’t a compelling reason to stay in or opt out since the money is almost the same over next three years.

There is something to be said for wanting to see if the situation in Cleveland really can yield a championship, if not this year then next year.

In 2016, virtually every team in the NBA should have cap space, so if after two seasons the experiment in Cleveland doesn’t work, Love can always walk away.

But what’s his value at that point, and does he become like most guys in the final year of a deal – trade bait?

The idea that Love has decided one way or the other on Cleveland does not seem to line up with what those around him are saying. The message from his camp is let’s see how things play out.

Some have characterized Love as absolutely leaving this summer; others have said he’s all the way in with Cleveland. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle and how this season ends likely signals how this story plays out.

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