College Basketball

March Madness: The History of No. 12 Seeds Over No. 5 Seeds

Colin Lynch Sports Editor

Updated15 Mar 2023

The 12-over-5 upset is often seen as the perfect balance between a double-digit upset, which adds excitement to the tournament, and a realistic chance for the underdog to pull off the upset. And history supports this notion, with multiple 12 seeds advancing to at least the tournament’s second round in most years. In fact, 12 seeds have a 35.8% winning percentage against 5 seeds. Let’s take a look at some historic 12 over 5 victories and the 12 vs. 5 matchups for the 2023 NCAA tournament.

No. 12 Seeds vs. No. 5 Seeds All-Time Stats

53-95: Record for 12 seeds vs. No. 5 seeds
35.8 percent: Overall winning percentage for 12 seeds since 1985
20: Largest margin of victory for a 12 seed; Eastern Michigan over Mississippi State (76-56)
1. Smallest margin of victory for a 12 seed; four times, first by Ball State over Oregon State (54-53)
7: Number of times a 12 seed has won in overtime
2: Number of times a 12 seed has won in double overtime
1: Buzzer-beater wins for 12 seeds: Western Kentucky over Drake (101-99)
21: 12 seeds to reach the Sweet 16
1: 12 seeds to reach the Elite Eight

2023 NCAA Tournament No.12 Seeds vs. No. 5 Seeds

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The History of No. 12 vs No. 5

There’s something undeniably special about the 12-5 matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Despite being ranked lower than their opponents and facing tough odds, 12 seeds have upset 5 seeds an incredible 53 times in the past 40 years. In contrast, 11 seeds have only upset 6 seeds 55 times, while 10 seeds have done so just 56 times. This shows that the seeding system is only sometimes a perfect predictor of a team’s performance in the tournament. In fact, in only five years in the past four decades, has there been no 12-over-5 upset. And in 14 years, at least two 12 seeds have won their opening games, proving that it’s more than twice as likely for multiple 12 seeds to advance than for none to do so. So, when filling out your bracket, it’s worth considering the magic of the 12-5 upset and the unpredictable nature of March Madness.

Year	Result	Score
1985	Kentucky def. Washington	66-58
1986	DePaul def. Virginia	72-68
1987	Wyoming def. Virginia	64-60
1989	DePaul def. Memphis State	66-63
1990	Dayton def. Illinois	88-86
1990	Ball State def. Oregon State	54-53
1991	Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State	76-56
1992	New Mexico State def. DePaul	81-73
1993	George Washington def. New Mexico	82-68
1994	UW-Green Bay def. California	61-57
1994	Tulsa def. UCLA	112-102
1995	Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona	71-62
1996	Drexel def. Memphis	75-63
1996	Arkansas def. Penn State	86-80
1997	College of Charleston def. Maryland	75-66
1998	Florida State def. TCU	96-87
1999	Detroit def. UCLA	56-53
1999	Missouri State def. TCU	96-87
2001	Utah State def. Ohio State	77-68 (OT)
2001	Gonzaga def. Virginia	86-85
2002	Tulsa def. Marquette	71-69
2002	Missouri def. Miami (Fla.)	93-80
2002	Creighton def. Florida	83-82 (2OT)
2003	Butler def. Mississippi State	47-46
2004	Pacific def. Providence	66-58
2005	Milwaukee def. Alabama	83-73
2006	Montana def. Nevada	87-79
2006	Texas A&M def. Syracuse	66-58
2008	Villanova def. Clemson	75-69
2008	Western Kentucky def. Drake	101-99 (OT)
2009	Wisconsin def. Florida State	61-59 (OT)
2009	Arizona def. Utah	84-71
2009	Western Kentucky def. Illinois	76-72
2010	Cornell def. Temple	78-65
2011	Richmond def. Vanderbilt	69-66
2012	South Florida def. Temple	58-44
2012	VCU def. Wichita State	62-59
2013	Ole Miss def. Wisconsin	57-46
2013	California def. UNLV	64-61
2013	Oregon def. Oklahoma State	68-55
2014	Harvard def. Cincinnati	61-57
2014	North Dakota State def. Oklahoma	80-75 (OT)
2014	Stephen F. Austin def. VCU	77-75 (OT)
2016	Little Rock def. Purdue	85-83 (2OT)
2016	Yale def. Baylor	79-75
2017	Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota	81-72
2019	Oregon def. Wisconsin	72-54
2019	Liberty def. Mississippi State	80-76
2019	Murray State def. Marquette	83-64
2021	Oregon State def. Tennessee	70-56
2022	New Mexico State def. Connecticut	70-63
2022	Richmond def. Iowa	67-63