NBA Saturday: NBA Draft Stock Watch 3/22/14

Only 32 teams remain in the quest for the 2014 NCAA National Championship and through the first two rounds we’ve seen some movement on NBA Draft boards. Although the tournament is only a small part of a prospect’s body of work, from an individual game standpoint they are weighed a little bit more than the average contest because they’re more meaningful and more scouts/executives are watching than normal. We’ve seen some stock-effecting performances from players who will likely never step foot in a NBA locker room, but today we’re going to focus solely on those who were already on the NBA Draft radar to see how their play impacted their standing as a prospect:

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STOCK UP

Adreian Payne – Michigan State, Forward
When you drop 41 points, some heads are going to turn, even if it’s against a serious underdog in Delaware. Payne showed off the ability to explode offensively like teams didn’t know he was capable of, so of course as a result you have to bump him up a couple of spots. Previously looked at as a late first-round pick, Payne should be projected to go more towards the middle of the first now. He’s clearly one of the best stretch fours in college basketball and although he may be a senior, he’s improved every year and is playing his best basketball when it matters most. That is really important in the draft. His team looks poised to go on a deep tournament run, and if Payne remains their catalyst, his stock will only continue to rise.

T.J. Warren – N.C. State, Forward
One of the most dominating and unique scorers in recent memory, Warren should be viewed as one of the poster boys for the two-and-done system. After a solid freshman campaign he likely would have been a late first-round draft pick, but there was the potential that he could slip into the second. However, he returned and shined in a featured role, and is now a lock to go in the first round, potentially as high as the late teens. Warren is not without his faults as he isn’t a major threat from beyond the arc and is inconsistent at the free throw line, but he simply has a gift for scoring. By taking his team to the verge of the Round of 32 after it looked like they were going to be NIT bound, Warren should declare with confidence next month that he couldn’t have done much more to improve his stock this season.

Jordan Bachynski – Arizona State, Center
The heartbreaking sequence in which Texas sophomore center Cameron Ridley grabbed an offensive rebound against him and scored over his outstretched hand with time expiring to win the game will likely keep Bachnyski up at night for the next couple of weeks, but the senior center can take consolation in the fact that he climbed draft boards as much as any player this year. He went from being completely off the radar to a potential mid-to-late second-round pick after leading the nation blocks per game and scoring 25 points in his final collegiate game. He has the makings of a solid backup center who can have a long career with his ability to defend the rim and do the little things like set good screens and fight on the glass. He’s come a long ways in a short amount of time, and it appears the best is still yet to come despite the fact that he’s going to be 25 before the start of next season.

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Elfrid Payton – Louisiana-Lafayette, Guard
When you play in a small conference like Payton did, NBA teams want to see you take your team to the tournament and play your best late. Payton did just that, guiding the Ragin’ Cajuns to two one-point victories in the Sun Belt tournament to secure their spot in the Big Dance. Then, against Creighton in their opening round contest, he was the game’s second best player behind the other-worldly Doug McDermott, a likely lottery pick. Payton finished with 24 points, eight rebounds, three assists, two blocks and three steals, a showing that cemented his case as one of the best point guards in the country. Payton should now be able to comfortably leave his remaining year of eligibility on the table as he looks to have a strong chance at going late in the first round, especially since he’s younger than the average junior at 20. He’s leapfrogged many higher ranked point guards in the process. Previously, he looked like a late second-round candidate at best.

Jordan Adams – UCLA, Guard
Although he may not be the most well-rounded guard when projecting his ability to play at the next level, Adams continues to display elite-level shooting ability and produce at an undeniable rate. He scored 19, including the eventual game winner against Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament championship, then went for 21 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two steals in the Bruins’ opening round win against a feisty Tulsa team. Once you get past the lottery, teams are looking for players who have a certifiable NBA skill and as one of the premier shooters in the country, every team could stand to benefit from having a sniper like Adams coming off of their bench. As a sophomore who has improved across the board in his second year of eligibility, Adams has played his way into first-round discussion. The Bruins are aiming for a deep tournament run, and the longer they stay alive, the more likely Adams’ stock is going to rise to a point where it just doesn’t make financial sense for him to come back for his junior season.

STOCK DOWN

Jabari Parker – Duke, Forward
All year long there’s been questions about whether Parker will end up staying for his sophomore season. Duke has an incredible recruiting class coming in with one of Parker’s best friends in Jahlil Okafor, a top-ranked center prospect, to entice him to stay. Had Parker led the Blue Devils on a deep tournament run, the chances of him staying would have decreased with every win. However, by losing in embarrassing fashion to Mercer in his first tournament game, you can’t help but wonder if that “incomplete” feeling he described afterwards keeps him on campus another year.

In terms of the range he’s projected to go, Parker is still a strong candidate to go in the top three as one of the most versatile scorers in the country. His ability to defend at the next level is seriously in question, though, and he’s no longer looked at in the same light that he was earlier in the year where his incredible offensive game made it easier to look past his defensive deficiencies. He’s only a “sure thing” on one end of the floor, unlike some of the other top prospects.

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Marcus Smart – Oklahoma State, Guard
The Cowboys were a popular choice to make a deep tournament run by national analysts on Selection Sunday, but they once again suffered an opening round defeat, this year at the hands of Gonzaga. Smart finished with 23 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists and six steals, but it wasn’t enough to keep his team from losing, 85-77. Smart’s inclusion on the stock down portion of this report is because of where he could have gone in last year’s draft. Smart would have been a very strong candidate to go second overall to the Orlando Magic. Instead, he returned with hopes of competing for a national championship as a sophomore, only to come up well short again.

Then, of course, there was the fan-shoving incident weeks ago that will undoubtedly be brought up time and time again during the pre-draft process. Smart may have improved statistically, but that ugly situation and his team’s disappointing season are working against him, whereas last year he had a much more pristine resume. He’s dropped a few spots from a top two prospect to one likely to go somewhere in the top eight now.

Sean Kilpatrick – Cincinnati, Guard
All year long Kilpatrick has been the motor that makes the Bearcats go. When he’s at his best, they can compete against any team in the country. When he’s just good to average, they’re vulnerable and on Thursday in an upset loss to Harvard he was average, to be kind. Kilpatrick was contained by the Crimson defense, taking just 13 shots and turning it over five times. With a deep tournament run, we likely would have been talking about Kilpatrick as a borderline first-round prospect, but now he goes into the draft process with his stock somewhere in the top half of the second round range. It’s going to be much more difficult for him to climb up from there in workouts and interviews than it would have been if his team survived and advanced.

Jahii Carson – Arizona State, Guard
Carson made it clear weeks ago that he would not be back for the Sun Devils next year despite having two years of eligibility remaining. That really put him in the spotlight and he did not excel with all eyes on him. The Sun Devils lost their last four ball games on the year, including their matchup against Texas in the tournament. Against the Longhorns, a team with a young and inconsistent backcourt, Carson went 6-16 from the field while turning it over six times. He did finish with nine assists, but at 5’10 Carson needed a more convincing performance to go into the pre-draft process with momentum. Because of his lack of size, efficiency issues and inconsistent jump shot, Carson went from a projected first-round pick to now a likely second rounder. Winning a couple of tournament games could have gone a long way in NBA teams being able to look past those weaknesses, but with his mind apparently set Carson will have to do what he can to ease their concerns in private workouts instead.

Other players like Providence’s Bryce Cotton, Saint Louis’ Rob Loe and North Dakota State’s Lawrence Alexander have been among the tournament’s biggest stars so far, but for a variety of different reasons, they’re not considered serious NBA prospects. However, while the premier league may not hold a spot for them, there is of course the potential for guys like that to earn opportunities to extend their respective careers overseas. You don’t have to play in the NBA anymore to make a fine living playing basketball, so they’re still earning money in their own right, just at a different level.

Basketball Insiders will continue to provide NBA Draft stock watches throughout the rest of the 2014 NCAA Tournament.