NBA AM: Almost Time To Guarantee NBA Contracts

Decision Time:  As of today NBA teams are now permitted to sign 10-day contracts, which means a number of teams have to decide if the roster spots they current have occupied are worth the cost.

January 10 is last day NBA teams can waive their non-guaranteed or partially-guaranteed players and avoid fully guaranteeing their contracts on January 10. While the 10th is the day contracts get locked in for the season, teams need the three days between the 7th and the 10th to ensure waived players clear the NBA waiver process.

While not all non-guaranteed or partially-guaranteed contracts will get waived (actually most don’t) there are several that might.

Here are the 49 players that fit into that category:

* Due to injury, Eric Moreland’s full contract value is guaranteed as he will not return before the guarantee date. He can still be waived, however his full contract of $507K is locked in.

It is worth noting that while Houston’s Patrick Beverly makes the list because of his contract structure, it’s nearly impossible to think the Rockets would waive him. The same is likely true of Amir Johnson in Toronto and Luis Scola in Indiana.

It’s also worth noting that some teams may opt to waive a player to avoid fully guaranteeing his contract, yet look to bring that player back on a series of 10-day contracts after that player clears waivers.

Teams tend to do that to preserve roster flexibility and sometimes reduce cost on fringe players they are still not sold on.

Teams are permitted to issue two 10-day contracts before needing to fully guarantee a player for the balance of the season or release him into free agency.

Timing Of A Trade:  Yesterday Cleveland Cavaliers’ General Manager David Griffin spoke with the press about a number of issues, one of which was his team’s desire to add to the roster.

Griffin was honest about his team’s willingness to deal, but reminded the media that just because his team wanted to make a deal didn’t mean the other side of the equation was ready.

“We’re very actively working the phones and doing everything we can to improve the team,” Griffin said. “At the same time, unfortunately our timing doesn’t always match the timing of everybody else. Until the trade deadline, people typically don’t have a lot of reason to do anything in a specific time. So we’re doing what we can and certainly working every angle we can.”

It’s commonly believed that trades are easy to consummate – when in actuality that’s rarely the case, unless you have an asset other teams covet.

A good example of that was Boston opting to put Rajon Rondo on the market. He was a player many teams had interest in so Boston was able to generate a trade fairly quickly.

That’s the exception, especially when dealing with less than marketable assets.

Most teams find themselves in the same situation as Cleveland. They have interest in making a trade, but may not have a partner willing to complete the deal.

Most in-season roster changes are shuffling bench players around. Occasionally an upper tier player get shopped around, but for the most part its moving a guy from the end of the bench to another team, and while there may be some level of need or urgency on one side, on the other is it really worth shaking up the chemistry?

Eventually teams have to look at their roster from a business perspective and that usually happens closer to the trade deadline, where teams try to cash out unwanted assets or try to pick up something to help them going forward.

As Griffin explained the environment, everyone tends to believe their assets are worth more than they actually are.

“At times like these, everybody is hoping their assets are worth more than they really are,” Griffin said. “I’m probably no different. I’m hoping that our DP (Disabled Player Exception) and TP (Traded Player Exception) are attractive but we won’t really know until we get to the point where somebody is willing to act.”

The key phrase in that is “where somebody is willing to act.”

The lack of a trade is usually not about desire to make a change or willingness to move a player; it’s usually about finding a partner. Not everyone is ready to deal yet. The ones that are, are usually buyers, teams looking for something to improve their roster. The sellers usually wait until the market gets a little more aggressive, namely so they can extract the best return on an asset.

So when you ask yourself ‘why doesn’t Team X make a trade?’ it’s likely because they can’t find a dance partner.

To spin it another way, it sort of like trying to find a girlfriend or a boyfriend; if you decide tomorrow to demand one, you might not find anything worth having or worse yet, how does desperation play in the match making scene? It’s basically the same concept in trying to consummate a trade.

You have to wait for the right partner and that doesn’t always line up with the time line you might want or expect.

The NBA trade deadline in February 19 at 3pm EST, so teams have roughly 45 days to dance this one out before they have to do something.

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